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Recent clashes between Damascus and the Kurdish forces in Aleppo highlight the risk that stalling integration talks may trigger broader violence.

Since its signing on March 10, no tangible progress has been made on the eight-point agreement between the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) and the Syrian Interim Government to facilitate SDF integration into the Interim Government’s armed forces. Instead, the talks have run past the agreement’s provision for implementation to be reached by the end of 2025, and violence between the two sides quickly unfolded in Aleppo once the talks stalled after the deadline.

As protests grow, regime leaders have no clear options for scaring Iranians off the streets, intimidating foreign powers, or escaping their wider strategic crisis.

For all the military weapons remaining in the Iranian regime’s arsenal, it has finally been deprived of the one that authoritarians rely upon most: fear. For almost five decades, the Iranian regime has brutally repressed its own people while sowing mayhem in the Middle East and beyond. But the regime may have finally entered a strategic crisis from which it will not be able to escape.

What began as clashes in Aleppo’s Kurdish neighbourhoods is now reshaping life in Iraqi Kurdistan, from street protests to media shifts and refugee tensions.

Clashes between Syrian government forces and Kurdish armed groups in Ashrafia and Sheikh Maqsoud, Kurdish-populated neighbourhoods of Aleppo, have notably altered the political and social dynamics within Iraqi Kurdistan.

Preşedintele sirian Ahmed al-Sharaa a publicat vineri un decret prin care acordă drepturi naţionale kurzilor din Siria, recunoscând în mod oficial limba kurdă, în contextul în care armata siriană este angajată în lupte cu forţe kurde în nordul Siriei, relatează AFP. În acest decret, Ahmed al-Sharaa proclamă kurda „limbă naţională”, care poate fi predată în şcoli publice în zone în care această minoritate este prezentă puternic. Armata siriană a anunţat sâmbătă că a preluat controlul oraşului Deir Hafer, la est de Alep, în urma unor confruntări armate recente în această regiune situată în nordul Siriei.

Toplines

The Iranian regime is using an unprecedented level of brutality to suppress protests. The actual death toll is likely significantly higher relative to the 1,500 people killed during the 2019 protests, though CTP-ISW cannot independently determine the number of protester deaths. Western media outlets have reported death toll estimates in Iran ranging from 2,000 to 20,000, and anecdotal information is consistent with the regime killing thousands in its crackdown.[1] The regime killed approximately 1,500 people in the span of two weeks during the 2019 economic protests.[2] Regime security forces have fired on crowds indiscriminately—in some cases with machine guns—and killed scores of citizens across numerous locations.[3] Some Iranians who have bypassed the internet shutdown have reported very high volumes of dead protesters on the streets and in hospitals and morgues.[4] Some reports alleged the presence of 700-1,000 dead protesters at just one morgue in Tehran, not accounting for other locations around the capital or the country overall.[5] Other Iranians have claimed that the regime’s crackdown is much greater than the one it conducted in November 2019, during which security forces killed around 1,500 protesters.[6] This anecdotal information is most consistent with the regime killing many thousands in its crackdown.

Israel and SDF providing financial and military support to Syrian Druze militias: report

Israeli money and arms are backing Druze militias in Suweida, deepening divisions in southern Syria and fuelling separatist ambitions after Assad’s fall

The ongoing protests in Iran mark the most serious domestic unrest that the Islamic Republic has faced. The protests could alter the character of the regime fundamentally or even topple it.

CTP-ISW currently assesses that the unprecedentedly brutal crackdown that the regime is conducting has broadly suppressed protest activity and may get the protests under control if no other factors intervene. The internet blackout, now extended to efforts to find and confiscate Starlink and other satellite communications dishes, makes assessing the current extent of protest activity difficult, but indirect indicators strongly suggest that more protests are taking place than CTP-ISW can document. The regime has responded to this protest wave with much more force and lethality than in any previous wave, indicating its fear that it can lose control of the situation. It remains unclear whether the regime will be able to sustain the current levels of oppression long enough to end this protest wave. CTP-ISW will not attempt to forecast the effects of possible US or other international action in support of the protesters at this time, since the nature and likelihood of such action remains extremely unclear. CTP-ISW has observed indicators that separatist militias are seeking to take advantage of the protest movement to position themselves for post-regime pushes for autonomy and independence, highlighting the importance of thoughtful and careful planning for post-regime scenarios.

Aujourd’hui, lors d’une réunion Zoom, j’ai entendu un général américain à la retraite plaider en faveur d’une guerre contre l’Iran… Il ne préconisait pas que Trump le fasse, mais il a présenté un résumé fascinant de la façon dont lui, et la plupart des Américains, perçoivent l’Iran comme une menace à éradiquer. Son principal grief est que l’Iran a tué des milliers d’Américains, notamment des militaires, et qu’il s’agit d’un État terroriste irrémédiablement perdu. Restez à l’écoute… Je vais vous démontrer à quel point cet homme se trompe.

As reports of Iraqi fighters in Iran circulate, flight patterns and eyewitness descriptions suggest an organized pipeline

Several Iraqi Shiite militias are involved in suppressing the Iranian protests, according to information obtained by The Media Line from multiple sources.