Iran Updates

Maps
The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) with support from the Critical Threats Project (CTP) at the American Enterprise Institute launched a new interactive map of Iran and the Middle East. The map depicts events in Iran that affect the stability of the Iranian regime, namely anti-regime protests and reported poisoning incidents. It also shows developments in Syria that jeopardize regional stability and pose threats to US forces and interests, including Iranian and Iranian-backed militia positions. ISW created each of these data layer events in accordance with ISW’s research methodology. Learn more about the map here.

Fall Of Syrian Regime And Regional Implications – Analysis

While the world’s eyes and attention were focused on the new Trump administration, the consequences of its policies after January 21 in Ukraine, and the raging fires of the Middle East, a new fire flared up and died down in the blink of an eye in Syria. A pending issue took suddenly an unexpected turn.

On December 8, 2024, the fall of the Bashar al-Assad regime marked a historic and decisive turning point in the Syrian civil war, after nearly 14 years of conflict. This sudden defeat, despite the regime’s growing difficulties, was accelerated by the rapid and coordinated advance of rebel groups, in particular Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), which launched a determined offensive from Idlib province, in the northwest of the country. The offensive, which began on November 27, 2024, benefited from the strategic and military support of Turkey, a regional power directly involved in the Syrian dynamic for several years.

Keeping The Spotlight On Africa’s Child Soldiers – Analysis

As violence and instability rise, African countries must reaffirm their commitment to protecting children and support DDR initiatives.

Roughly 21 000 children have been recruited as soldiers by government forces and armed groups across Africa in the past five years. In 2020, around 337 million children lived within 50 km of active conflicts worldwide, with 118 million in Africa, where one in six risked being recruited.

The Fall of the Assad Regime: Terrorism Challenges

The fall of the Assad regime in Syria presents the international community with a range of complex challenges. First and foremost, there’s a significant risk of an ISIS resurgence. Over the past year, there’s been an uptick of ISIS attacks every single month—not only in Iraq but in Syria as well. While the new ISIS caliph stays silent, learning from his predecessors that speaking publicly is likely to lead to his demise, thousands of ISIS fighters remain in camps and prisons run by Syrian Kurds. Therefore, should internal strife break out between the various anti-Assad forces and continue to spill over into Kurdish-controlled areas, the risks of incidents like the Hasaka prison break in 2022 will rise. Reports of fighting between the Turkish-controlled Syrian National Army (SNA) and Kurdish forces under the umbrella of the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) in Manbij, as well as between Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) forces and the SDF in Deir al Zour, are therefore highly concerning. Continued clashes between the various groups is all the more likely since a significant part of Syria’s remaining oil and gas resources are located in areas under Kurdish control, something no power broker in Damascus will likely accept.

Putin’s pipeline: How the Kremlin outmaneuvered Western oil companies to wrest control of vast flows of Kazakhstan’s crude

Chevron and partners prioritized profits, enabling runaway costs and ballooning budgets worth billions as Russia deployed strong-arm tactics and steered contracts to cronies.

On a late August afternoon in 2021 the mooring master made a frantic call to a dispatcher at Russia’s largest port, Novorossiysk.

“Stop! Stop! Stop loading tanker Minerva Symphony!” he shouted.

The New Rasputins

Frosty pine trees rim the edge of an icy lake. Snow is falling; spa music plays in the background. A gray-haired man with a pleasant face stands beside the lake. He begins to undress. He is going swimming, he explains, to demonstrate his faith, and his opposition to science, to technology, to modernity. “I don’t need Facebook; I don’t need the internet; I don’t need anybody. I just need my heart,” he says. As he swims across the lake, seemingly unbothered by the cold, he continues: “I trust my immune system because I have complete trust and faith in its creator, in God. My immunity is part of the sovereignty of my being.”

Trump can’t leave Syria to others

After the fall of Bashar Assad‘s regime in Syria, the incoming Trump administration faces a complex set of challenges. Despite President-elect Donald Trump’s promise to reduce U.S. involvement overseas, completely disengaging from Syria may not be a viable option.

The interim government led by Hayat Tahrir al Sham has shown little intention of quickly transitioning to an elected government. Instead, it has proposed a lengthy four-year timeline, signaling Abu Mohammad al Jolani’s ambition to maintain power. Jolani, a U.S.-designated terrorist with past ties to al Qaida and the Islamic State group, has claimed he intends to build an inclusive and tolerant government. However, his actions tell a different story. Early moves by HTS suggest a commitment to implementing Sharia law, introducing an Islamist curriculum for children, and appointing officials with ties to extremist ideologies.

Turkey Is Preparing to Invade Syria, Then Israel?

President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is making no effort to disguise his ambitions. In a bold declaration following the first meeting of Turkey’s cabinet, Erdogan made it clear that he intends to target the U.S.-backed Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF).

His message to Washington was unequivocal:

‘Disengaging Armed Factions’: Tehran Recalculates Its Influence in Iraq

Latest Developments

  • Tehran and Baghdad Discuss Regional Developments: Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia’ al-Sudani met with Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian in Tehran on January 8. The two leaders discussed infrastructure projects and the developments in Syria following the overthrow of former dictator Bashar al-Assad during a joint press conference, with Sudani emphasizing Syria’s sovereignty and “reducing external influence.”
  • Iran Recalculates Its Proxy Doctrine: Brig. Gen. Esmail Ghaani, the commander of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Quds Force, which focuses on attacks outside Iran, met with Iran-backed Shia militia leaders, Iraqi politicians, and al-Sudani during a covert trip to Iraq on January 5. Ghaani addressed “restructuring and disengaging armed factions” that operate at Tehran’s behest. Washington has pressured the government in Baghdad to dissolve these factions or integrate them into the Iraqi armed forces.
  • The ‘Axis of Resistance’ Braces for Trump’s Return: Tehran’s Iraqi proxies have halted their attacks on Israel following President-elect Donald Trump’s victory as they recalibrate their strategy towards the upcoming administration in Washington. Prominent Iraqi Shia figures with close ties to Tehran have raised concerns about renewed U.S. pressure on Baghdad to dismantle these militias.