Since its mutiny, the Russian private military company “Wagner Group” has redeployed to Belarus and is now training troops near the Polish border while President of Belarus Alexander Lukashenko makes belligerent statements. However, Telegram channels, including that of Wagner Group head Yevgeny Prigozhin, as well others reporting on Wagner Group and Belarus, report that Wagner Group personnel are also training Belarussian internal security forces.
The Wagner Group Exodus To Belarus
On June 24, 2023, Wagner Group troops entered the Russian city of Rostov-on-Don and began to move toward the capital. On the evening of the same date, the issue was resolved: It became known that Wagner Group troops would halt their advance and “leave for Belarus.” The decision came after Wagner Group head Yevgeny Prigozhin’s phone conversation with Belarus President Alexander Lukashenko. Russian President Vladimir Putin, addressing Wagner Group members, reiterated[1] that they could move to the neighboring country: “Today, you have the option of continuing your service in Russia by signing a contract with the Ministry of Defense or other security agencies or returning to your family and friends. Whoever wants to, can also go to Belarus… I repeat, the choice is up to each of you, but I am sure it will be the choice of the soldiers of Russia who have realized their tragic mistake.”
News of the presence of the first Wagner servicemen in Belarus began to appear in July.[2] On July 19, Prigozhin addressed Wagner troops deployed in Belarus. In a video showing the address, Prigozhin said: “Welcome to Belarus soil. We fought honorably… Now, what is happening at the front – I am talking about the command apparatus of the Russian Ministry of Defense – is a disgrace in which we do not need to participate. And now we need to wait for the moment when we can prove ourselves fully. That is why it was decided that we will stay here for some time, in Belarus. During this time, we will make of them [of the Belarussian military], and I am sure of it, the second army in the world. And if necessary, we will fight for them.” Prigozhin also said that the troops might return to the war in Ukraine.
The subsequent video posted on July 19 by “Wagner Orchestra | Wagner” features infamous Wagner Commander and former GRU officer Dmitry Utkin (aka Wagner), saying: “If anyway does not know, I am the very same Wagner. Thank you all very much for your work. Thanks to this work, the name of ‘Wagner’ PMC has become known around the world. This is not the end, but only the beginning [of] the biggest job in the world, which will be done very soon! Welcome to hell!” from Wagner servicemen. Soldiers in the video applaud and can be heard saying: “We will smash pidors [a slur for homosexuals] around the world!”
Wagner Group Operations In Belarus
In the middle of July, the Belarus media outlet “Belta” reported that Wagner Group personnel were training the Belarus army.[3] The servicemen were mastering skills related to engineering, tactical medicine, tactical firing, and maneuvering on the battlefield. The exercises were reportedly held at a shooting range near the Belarussian town of Osipovichi.
The “Wagner Orchestra | Wagner” Telegram channel posted in July many photos of joint exercises with the Belarus Army beyond the training at Osipovichi. A July 20 post shows photos from a three-day exercise near the Belarussian city of Brest by members of Wagner Group and of the Special Operations Forces of Belarus (SSO RB), which are directly subordinate to the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Belarus. The Belarus Defense Ministry stated[4] in connection with the event that: “The [Wagner] PMC’s real combat experience is an opportunity to continue to develop the course on modernization that the Belarusian army has taken.”
The President of Belarus Alexander Lukashenko stressed[5] that Wagner Group could be used for the protection of the state: “If we need to use this unit for the defense of the state (if they are here), it will be activated instantly in any direction. And their experience will be in demand in Belarus.” On July 21, “Wagner Orchestra | Wagner” Telegram channel reported that forces of the SSO RB as well as those of the Belarus Ministry of Internal Affairs would train under Wagner instructors.
Prigozhin’s Telegram channel of also posted photos of meetings with high-profile Belarussian officials. On July 25, the channel published a photo featuring: the commander of the Belarus Special Rapid Response Unit; the commander of the Minsk OMON (i.e., riot police forces); the deputy minister of Internal Affairs and the commander of the Internal Troops; the head of the 3214 military unit; and the commander of the “Almaz” SPBT, which is an anti-terror unit of the Belarus Ministry of Internal Affairs.
Number Of Troops
There are various assessments on the number of Wagner troops stationed in Belarus. On July 19, Russian Colonel General Vladimir Shamanov of the Airborne Troops said that there about 7,000 to 10,000 Wagner Group servicemen in Belarus. Telegram channels associated with the Wagner Group indirectly supported this figure. A member of “Commander Council of Wagner PMC”[6] with the callsign “Marks” stated: “A total of 78,000 fighters of the PMC ‘Wagner’ fought in the Ukrainian campaign. Of these, 49,000 were prisoners. At the time of the capture of Bakhmut on May 20, 22,000 fighters were killed, 40,000 were wounded. There are 25,000 alive and healthy soldiers, plus the wounded servicemen undergoing treatment. Out of those, up to 10,000 have left for Belarus. 15,000 have already gone on service leave.”
The Belarus “Беларускi Гаюн” Telegram channel, however, gave on July 18 a different count of Wagner servicemen in the country, claiming about 2,500 men and 400 vehicles. It was stated that a Wagner encampment would be built near the town of Osipovichi. On July 21, “Colonelcassad” Telegram channel posted a photo of the Wagner campground.
On July 26, Wagner Group reported that in addition to Russian citizens, Belarussian citizens would be admitted to the Wagner Group and other recruiting. It is stated that the recruitment will continue in Belarus, noting the changed demands to the new recruits. For instance, prisoners or people sick with certain diseases will not be admitted.
[1] Kremlin.ru/events/president/news/71528
[2] Rbc.ru/politics/16/07/2023/64b3024b9a794740172d2c4f
[3] Belta.by/society/view/minoborony-zanjatija-s-territorialnoj-oboronoj-prohodjat-pod-osipovichami-576952-2023/
[4] Tass.ru/mezhdunarodnaya-panorama/18321215
[5] Rbc.ru/rbcfreenews/64a6879a9a7947928aab4d1c?utm_source=rbc.ru&utm_medium=inhouse_media&utm_campaign=story_64960f789a7947264a5c12ce&utm_content=64a6879a9a7947928aab4d1c&utm_term=10.4C_noauth
[6] A collegiate body that allegedly passes decisions in Wagner.