After Tehran , Damascus : according to Saudi state TV Al Ekhbariya , citing sources in the Foreign Ministry , the al-Saud monarchy is in the process of re-establishing diplomatic relations with Bashar Al Assad ‘s Syria , a few days after the news of a similar rapprochement between Riyadh and Iran , ultimately mediated by China . A move that was eagerly awaited in the last week – after the news of the rapprochement between Saudi Arabiaand Iran, an ally of Syria – something unthinkable until a couple of years ago, when, with Trump in the White House , on the horizon for Riyadh there seemed to be the completion of normalization with Israel and a further stiffening vis-à-vis the Islamic Republic and its partner.
The Saudi and Syrian delegations, according to what has been leaked, in recent days have reached a substantial agreement for the reopening of the diplomatic offices towards the end of the month of Ramadan , which will fall on April 20, in view of the possible readmission of Damascus to the Arab League , from which it was excluded in 2012 due to the brutal repression of anti-government protests, whose next meeting will take place in the Kingdom in May. Last January, Damascus had resumed imports from Saudi Arabia, one of the first Arab countries to take sides against the Assad regime, promoting its exclusion from the Arab League and the most active in financing a series of rebel groups in the first phase of the conflict.
Another episode thus adds to the gradual reorganization in the region , within which it is perhaps rash and premature to signal a clear repositioning of the Saudis, but which certainly signals the growing regional leadership of Russia which in the Syrian-Saudi talks would have assumed the role of mediator , similar to the one in Beijing between Riyadh and Tehran. Furthermore, there is the Saudis’ willingness to react to the clear change of posture by the American administration led by Joe Biden who, the day after his election, had interrupted the supply of arms decided by his predecessor, defined as the Saudi one ” pariah state”and pressed his heir to the throne, Mohammad bin Salman , to clarify his responsibilities for the heinous assassination of journalist Jamal Khashoggi inside the Saudi consulate in Istanbul in 2018.
It should be remembered, in relation to the American disengagement from the region, that in the same hours as the release of the news of the rapprochement between Riyadh and Damascus, Pentagon officials reported to the Wall Street Journal that next April Washington will deliver attack aircraft to a series of countries in the region Fairchild Republic A-10 Thunderbolt , with the intention of using more advanced models in the Pacific : the A-10, in fact, are largely outdated aircraft, the first models date back to the 70s.
“The rapprochement between Saudis and Syrians reflects a more general trend underway among the Arab countries which are welcoming Bashar al-Assad back into their assemblies, normalizing relations with Damascus in ways promoted by the United Arab Emirates “, the Professor Colin Philip Clarke , Senior Research Fellow of the Soufan Group . It should in fact be noted that a few days ago, more or less at the same time as the final meeting between the Saudis and Iranians, Bashar al-Assad and his wife Asma were received in Abu Dhabi, with which diplomatic relations had already been re-established in December 2018 after six years of freezing weather. Furthermore, a month ago he had already involved Riyadh in sending aid to the areas of Syria affected by the earthquake of last February 6th.
After Biden’s change of course, Riyadh had already made some moves in the opposite direction to those desired by Washington, such as that of cutting crude oil production , generating a rise in prices which, with the Ukrainian conflict already underway, had favored Russia. “I personally consider these moves by the Saudis as a message to Washington , a way to demonstrate that they have their own agenda and that they no longer need it – continues Clarke – And it is also for this reason that the Chinese role in the Iranian-Saudi reapproachment is being considered a critical point.
“Authoritarian states and those that export oil have more in common than Western democracies, perceived as hypocrites in respecting sovereignty and the use of sanctions ,” comments Karen Young of the Center in the Wall Street Journal columns. on Columbia University ‘s Global Energy Policy . “The general trend in the Middle East – she adds – is that of a widespread consensus on the principle of non-interference in other people’s domestic affairs”. And in the light of this it is possible to frame the behavior of a Mohammad Bin Salman annoyed by Biden’s posture.
The rapprochement between Riyadh and Moscow had already begun in 2018, during the American presidency of a Trump much less hostile to Russia than his successor: the joint press conference between the Russian Foreign Minister, Sergej Lavrov , and his former Saudi counterpart, Adel Al Jubeir , in which a general agreement was reached on collaboration for a political solution to the Syrian civil war. And it is still that meeting that laid the foundations for the beginning of informal talks between Damascus and Riyadh which had begun to discuss reconciliation with the mediation of Abu Dhabi, focusing above all on the common concernsrelating in particular to the threat of a political nature posed in both countries by the Muslim Brotherhood .
In May 2021, a few months after Biden’s election to the White House, the first meeting in ten years between Saudi and Syrian intelligence had then arrived , with the visit of Saudi intelligence chief Khalid Bin Ali al Humaidan to Damascus. A senior Syrian intelligence official, who according to Saudi diplomatic sources quoted by Reuters would answer to the name of Hussam Louqa , stayed in Riyadh for several days last week to discuss in particular the fight against the trafficking of Captagon (amphetamines) at the border between Syria and Jordan . According to the Kuwaiti newspaper Al Jarida , tooMaher Al Assad , Bashar’s brother and head of the Syrian Army ‘s notorious Fourth Armored Division , has traveled to Saudi Arabia to discuss normalization and the possible release of Saudi detainees captured as members of jihadist groups in Syria.
If it appears clear that the rapprochement between Saudi Arabia and Syria is doubly linked to that between the former and Iran, two other connected aspects are less clear: the first concerns the effective and concrete holding of these reconciliation processes. On this, Professor Clarke proceeds with caution: “Many changes are taking place in the Middle East, but one thing are the announcements and another are the actual developments. It is necessary to wait and see how and which countries actually adapt to these new agreements”. Syria and Saudi Arabia, about 18 years ago, had already mediated jointly after the crisis triggered in Lebanon by the assassination of then Prime Minister Rafiq Hariri, supported by Riyadh, only to find themselves a few years later in a renewed situation of hostility, given that they belong to opposing geopolitical blocs. According to what was stated by a Lebanese deputy of Hezbollah, Nawwaf Moussawi , on 26 August 2018, i.e. three days before the meeting between Lavrov and Jubeir, Bashar al-Assad had returned to the sender Mohammad Bin Salman’s offer to contribute to the reconstruction of the Syria in exchange for breaking off relations between Damascus and the Shiite party.
The second aspect calls into question the expected possibility that this reapproachment between Saudi Arabia and two countries of the so-called “Axis of the Resistance” will stimulate the unblocking of some situations of political stalemate or even favor the resolution of conflicts in the region. If as regards the conflict in Yemen the hope is that talks are underway between Riyadh and Houthi rebelsare influenced by the agreement with Tehran, which as noted by some observers “has the power to push towards an escalation, but not necessarily that of pushing towards a de-escalation”, some hope that the rapprochement between Riyadh and Damascus will contribute to produce some effect on neighboring Lebanon, which has been in institutional deadlock since last November following the expiry of the mandate of the former president of the Republic, Michel Aoun , who left the position vacant.
Encouraging signs, in this sense, came a couple of weeks ago, after the general secretary of Hezbollah, Hassan Nasrallah , announced his support for presidential candidate Sleiman Frangieh , head of Marada , a pro-Syrian Christian party and historically hostile to the Saudis. The comments arriving from Riyadh, unlike usual, had been vaguely optimistic, at least not signaling a clear closure, and the Lebanese newspaper Orient Todayhe had reported how a good part of the Sunni deputies in the Lebanese Parliament – traditionally influenced by the Gulf monarchy – was willing to support Frangieh himself and awaiting a “green light” from the Kingdom. A green light that could provide Frangieh himself with sufficient numbers to be elected. However, this is not a completely linear dynamic: a couple of days earlier, the well-known Saudi newspaper Okaz had published a harsh article against Frangieh’s appointment, accompanied by a rather lugubrious cartoon in which the latter’s face was superimposed on that of Nasrallah himself.