Israel’s campaign in Gaza in response to Hamas’s 7 October 2023 attacks still overshadows Middle East politics, with the spectre of wider war or other regional instability ever present even as ceasefire talks appear to be making progress. Crisis Group experts offer a 360-degree view.
Olaf Scholz’s long dithering before sending tanks is symptomatic of a deep-seated mindset that détente won the Cold War, not Reagan’s belligerence.
In early January of 1984, an aspiring young West German socialist with a shoulder-length curly mane traveled by train to East Berlin with his comrades for an important meeting.
Israel and Hezbollah have continued to escalate their cross-border attacks that began after the October 7 Hamas attack on Israel, although the two sides remain short of full-scale warfare.
U.S. and French diplomats are seeking to develop a formula to de-escalate the skirmishing, modeled on some of the past agreements that ended Israel-Hezbollah hostilities.
Iran’s military presence in Syria enables Tehran to pressure the United States and Israel but also provides targets for military actions against Iran.
Since October 7, Iran has increased its reliance on allied militia fighters deployed in Syria in order to avoid exposing senior Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) commanders to Israeli and U.S. strikes.
Latest Developments
Hezbollah targeted an Israeli Elbit Hermes 450 drone with surface-to-air missiles on February 26. The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) intercepted one of the missiles with the David’s Sling air defense system, but a second missile struck and downed the Israeli drone. In response, the IDF said it carried out extensive strikes “deep” inside Lebanon. Hezbollah’s conduct marked an escalation by the terrorist group, which has already fired thousands of rockets at Israel since October 8.
NATO is planning for a possible Russian breakthrough across the Line of Contact later this year but isn’t yet sure how to react if that happens.
French President Macron hosted over 20 fellow European leaders in Paris on Monday to discuss their next moves in Ukraine, including the possibility of a conventional NATO intervention, which he said they hadn’t ruled out for reasons of “strategic ambiguity” despite not reaching a consensus on this. His Polish counterpart Duda also confirmed that this subject was the most heated part of their discussions. The very fact that this scenario is being officially considered shows how desperate NATO has become.
The campaign of attacks by Yemen’s Houthi fighters on shipping in the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden continues, despite renewed US and UK strikes on their positions, leading to fears about the long-term security of these strategically important waterways.
Turkey is notorious for harboring Hamas terrorists and affiliated entities, and it is unclear why the U.S. government does not take a tougher stance.
Following the October 7 terror attacks in Israel, carried out by Hamas, Ankara has increasingly come into focus, for the many ways in which it provides material support to the Gaza-based terror organization. Hamas’ senior, as well as rank and file members have found a second home inside the borders of a NATO ally, free to organize, spread their message, backed by the open political and diplomatic support of President Recep Tayyip Erdogan.
Today, the U.S. Department of the Treasury’s Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) imposed a fourth round of sanctions on Hamas since the October 7 terrorist attack on Israel. Today’s action targets key officials who perpetuate Hamas’s violent agenda by representing the group’s interests abroad and managing its finances. OFAC closely coordinated with the United Kingdom to concurrently designate several key Hamas officials.
On February 22, 2024, the pro-Syrian Hay’at Tahrir Al-Sham (HTS), Al-‘Askari Media, published on Telegram a set of infographic posters titled “The Kamikaze – The Weapon That Will Change Future Wars.” The images inform the group’s fighters on how to avoid being targeted by “kamikaze” drones, also known as suicide drones.[1]