The Future of South Yemen: Will Conflicting Interests Collide?
For the last year, the media has been abuzz with rumors of Saudi Arabia’s impending withdrawal from Yemen. Many analysts have ascribed the normalization deal with Iran to the Saudi exist strategy from the conflict, which has cost the Kingdom tens of billions of dollars in humanitarian aid alone, let alone military and other expenses towards the war effort and assorted administrative tasks. Attempted negotiations with Houthis have thus far not worked out after the Houthis demanded extraordinary concessions, in a new de facto rejection of the Saudi overtures. That left the fate of the Saudi-led Arab Coalition forces in limbo – while further complicating the situation inside the conflict-fraught country and raising questions about the future of South Yemen. In the latest diplomatic salvo, pointing to the Kingdom’s search for an exit strategy, Riyadh is making moves to strengthen its positions in Aden and Hadramut, by forming administrative councils (de-facto militias), aimed at promoting unity. Meanwhile, the Southern Transitional Council (STC) leadership, particularly popular in parts of the South, is more determined than ever to forge a pathway to independence. So where does that leave us?