Rusia

• In today’s summary:
• The Armed Forces of Ukraine managed to stabilize the situation in the Kharkiv region, but it is still not possible to do this in the Donbass
• Russian troops are expanding the zone of control north and south of Chasiv Yar in the Bakhmut direction
• Ukrainian forces pushed the enemy in the urban area of Vovchansk, the northern part of the city was turned into ruins
• Massive combined strikes on Ukraine – the targets were energy facilities and military airfields
• The first effective use of Western weapons on the territory of the Russian Federation – the S-300 / S-400 air defense system was hit near Belgorod
• Vladimir Putin spoke about the fantastic ratio of losses in the war – the Russian Armed Forces are losing “five times less” people
• French President Emmanuel Macron announced the transfer of Mirage 2000-5 fighters to the Armed Forces of Ukraine
• The new military aid package from the United States includes ammunition for air defense and HIMARS, howitzers, and M113 armored personnel carriers
• The situation at the front
• In one of the reviews, Ukrainian military observer Konstantin Mashovets admitted that the Armed Forces of Ukraine, unlike the Kharkiv direction, failed to completely stop the Russian advance in the eastern operational zone. In the north of the Avdiivka operational area near Ocheretyne, the situation remains threatening: in particular, the Russians engaged in battles for the village of Sokol. Impressive footage of these battles is published on social networks, for example, the “meeting” between a Russian BTR-82A with a landing party and a Ukrainian Bradley infantry fighting vehicle on the same road. In the same area, as the Ukrainian military writes (1, 2), the RF Armed Forces do not stop trying to reach the Pokrovsk-Konstantinovka highway.

Russia might seriously consider relying on its Iranian strategic partner to arm the Axis of Resistance in order to either force a humiliating American withdrawal from at least parts of West Asia, Syria in particular, or draw it into a major regional conflict right before the November elections.

NATO has a plan in place for rapid deployment of its forces in the scenario of a future Russian attack on Europe. It includes the development of “land corridors” which can be used to rush some 300,000 troops — mostly American soldiers — to front line positions in order to defend against a Russian invasion.

Despite some Western expectations of an imminent decline in Russian backing for the conflict in Ukraine, akin to the fading public support observed in recent Western conflicts, Russia’s civilians and soldiers exhibit an unwavering determination to sustain their support.

L’obsession pour les technologies n’a pas profité à Washington. Les États-Unis produisent des armes sophistiquées et coûteuses, que les forces russes ont rapidement appris à neutraliser.

Les troupes russes progressent inexorablement dans la région de Kharkiv, et il devient de plus en plus évident que le conflit en Ukraine est devenu un désastre pour la machine de guerre américaine. Et pas seulement parce que l’aide américaine n’a pas empêché l’Ukraine de reculer et de subir une possible défaite. Plus important encore, le conflit a révélé des défauts enracinés dans tout le système américain, écrit Responsible Statecraft.

The March 2024 terrorist attack by the Islamic State Khorasan Province (ISKP) in Moscow Oblast brings to attention the Islamic State’s long-standing animosity towards the Russian state. The group also seeks to destabilise the relationship between Russia and Central Asia. Russia can be expected to deal with the ISKP threat more aggressively, including tighter border controls. The Islamic State Vilayat Caucasus, founded in 2015, also exists which operates in the historically conflict-prone Northern Caucasus region.

The latest military-strategic dynamics suggest that a conventional NATO intervention is seriously being considered.

President Putin shared a lot of insight about the NATO-Russian proxy war in Ukraine during the press conference that he held during his latest trip to Uzbekistan. The first point of relevance that he made is that Zelensky is no longer regarded by Russia as Ukraine’s legitimate leader after his term expired. According to President Putin’s “tentative estimate” of this legal question, Rada Speaker Stefanchuk should now be seen as Zelensky’s legal successor.

The war between Russia and Ukraine has entered its second year and there is no end in sight. Earlier this month, in a concerning escalation, Russia announced that it plans to hold drills simulating the use of tactical nuclear weapons along the border with Ukraine. Earlier in March, Russia had said that it would station nuclear weapons in Belarus. Such nuclear posturing in the middle of a war is worrying.

On April 4, speaking at a NATO Summit, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken stated that “Ukraine will become a member of NATO. Our purpose at the summit is to help build a bridge to that membership.” This is an exceedingly dangerous statement.This latest statement continues the trend of making promises to Ukraine that it may one day become a member of NATO without offering a concrete timeline. This is the worst of all possible worlds: such implicit promises provoke Russia, which has stated on multiple occasions that the prospect of NATO membership for Ukraine is a red line, while doing nothing to enhance Ukraine’s security.