On 24 June, President Vladimir Putin faced his biggest challenge in over two decades at Russia’s helm: a mutiny by a mercenary group fighting alongside Russian forces in Ukraine. In this Q&A, Crisis Group experts explore the implications for Putin’s rule and Russian foreign policy.
We have yet to see the full repercussions of the Wagner Group’s march on Moscow.
“Bombing Voronezh” is an expression in the Russian language that roughly translates to hurting yourself while trying to do damage to someone else. On June 24, language met reality as Russian forces bombed the southern city of Voronezh trying to slow down the advance of the Wagner Group’s mercenary convoy towards Moscow.
I noticed that the consciousness of many simply cannot cope with the events of June 24th. Therefore, the trend is rising: “it just didn’t happen”; “everything was not real”; “They are there on purpose.” Only in this way can the acute pain of what happened be dulled. When it comes to the defensive reaction of a wide society, not particularly immersed in the sphere of meanings – in this case, political science meanings, this is understandable and acceptable: people are looking for loopholes for the continuity of the routine flow of the life world, in which events are either microscopic or they do not exist at all. But when those who claim seriousness and depth of analysis begin to broadcast the same thing, it just looks pathetic. In fact, the acute phase of the events of June 24 has been resolved, but nothing is completely over yet: now some specific actions of the authorities must follow, which will clarify the picture, and only then comes the minimum clarity. In the meantime, it may be premature to comment on the meanings: since the whole process has not been completely completed, the resulting one may be different. After all, what began and continues, acquires meaning in its completion – and not before. You never know what can happen in the course of the deployment of such a critical chain of events. Full analytics ahead.
Contrairement aux commentaires de la presse occidentale, Evgueni Prigojine n’a jamais tenté de coup d’État contre Vladimir Poutine. Il a voulu le faire chanter afin de conserver les privilèges exorbitants qu’il a accumulés depuis la création de sa société militaire privée. Puis il s’est rendu à la raison et a réintégré son poste.
Nobody in Russia understands what the war in Ukraine is about. And now, nobody knows if that war is coming to them.
When I saw the first images of armed men in ragtag uniforms taking over the Russian city of Rostov-on-Don on Saturday morning, I was immediately reminded of the “little green men” who began showing up in cities in Crimea and eastern Ukraine in 2014. Like the Russian troops and soldiers-of-fortune who began the Kremlin’s covert invasion of Ukraine, the fighters in Rostov displayed no insignia as they seized key buildings, including the headquarters of Russia’s Southern Military District. Just as in Ukraine nine years ago, there was no resistance from local law enforcement officers, who chose life over a fight with determined gunmen.
Top Russian officials rallied around President Vladimir Putin in a clear sign of support for the Kremlin on Monday, two days after paramilitary Wagner Group leader Yevgeny Prigozhin seized the strategic city of Rostov-on-Don and began an advance toward the capital.
Blink and you could have missed it. Within 36 hours, the challenge mounted against the Kremlin by Yevgeny Prigozhin, the leader of the mercenary private military company the Wagner Group, was over. On Friday June 23 2023, Prigozhin ordered 25,000 of his troops on to a “march for justice”, which duly set out to confront the Russian president in Moscow. The following afternoon he called it off.
It is increasingly clear that a rattled Vladimir Putin’s political end is approaching. All that really matters now is whether it comes sooner or later.
Having appeared on national television to warn of a coup attempt by traitors – and an impending civil war – Putin abruptly reversed his position only a couple of hours later. The Kremlin announced that Yevgeny Prigozhin, the chief protagonist, would go into exile in Belarus and all charges against him had been dropped.
Even in such a fast-moving war, still some events have the ability to surprise. The decision by Wagner Group leader, Yevgeny Prigozhin, to launch an apparent coup attempt, leading his troops into Russia, where he occupied the military HQ in Rostov and was heading towards Moscow, appeared to have left the Kremlin floundering.
The war between Russia and Ukraine has become more complex in the wake of the past weekend, which found Yevgeny Prigozhin marching his troops toward Moscow, and President Vladimir Putin finding a safe haven for Prigozhin in Belarus. The conventional wisdom among politicians and pundits is that this is an opportunity for Ukraine and its Western allies to increase the pressure on Russia. Former U.S. ambassador to Russia Michael McFaul, for example, favors “better and more weapons and better and more sanctions as fast as possible,” believing that Putin is more likely to “negotiate an end to this war if he is losing on the battlefield.” The problem, however, is that the war remains unwinnable; neither side has the ability to achieve a decisive victory.