Africa

Will the Horn Explode?

The announcement made on New Year’s Day that Ethiopia has signed a Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) with Somaliland covering several areas may have created the first major geopolitical risk of the year 2024.

Egyptian Professor Of Modern History Mohamed Afifi: Iran Has Been An Enemy Of Egypt Since Ancient Times; It Seeks To Control The Eastern Mediterranean Sea And Trade Routes To Europe

Egyptian professor of modern history Mohamed Afifi said in a January 14, 2024 interview on Ten TV (Egypt) that he considers Iran to be an enemy of Egypt. He said that since the times of the ancient Persian Empire, Iran had aspirations to control the eastern part of the Mediterranean Sea and the trade routes to Europe through the invasion of Egypt.

Cairo Warns Against Israeli Operation on Egypt-Gaza Border

Latest Developments

Cairo warned Jerusalem on January 22 that an Israeli operation along Egypt’s border with Gaza would present a “serious threat” to Egypt-Israel relations and cross a “red line.” The Egyptian government made the threat in response to reports that Israel may be preparing a military operation to secure the 8.7-mile land route — an area known as the Philadelphi Corridor — and destroy the network of illicit Hamas tunnels that connect Egypt and Gaza.

Salafi-Jihadi Movement Weekly Update, January 10, 2024: New IS Campaign Presents Pro-Palestine Propaganda Opportunities for Sub-Saharan Affiliates

Data Cutoff: January 10, 2024, at 10 a.m.

Key Takeaway: IS affiliates across sub-Saharan Africa have claimed attacks as part of the new IS global campaign and could attempt to carry out high-visibility attacks against civilians and religious sites in their areas of operation to maximize the propaganda value of the campaign. IS central media is branding the campaign as supportive of the Palestinian cause in response to the Israel-Hamas war and is also encouraging lone-wolf attacks against civilians in the West.

Mapping Disinformation in Africa

Russia has pioneered a model of disinformation to gain political influence in Africa that is now being replicated by other actors across the continent.

Disinformation is the intentional dissemination of false information with the intent of advancing a political objective. Africa has been the increasingly frequent target of such campaigns. In recent years, dozens of carefully designed campaigns have pumped millions of intentionally false and misleading posts into Africa’s online social spaces. The ensuing confusion in deciphering fact from fiction has had a corrosive effect on social trust, critical thinking, and citizens’ ability to engage in politics fairly—the lifeblood of a functioning democracy.