The dismissal of Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Galant came at a delicate time, coinciding with polling day in the US elections, between the supposed end of the war in the Gaza Strip and the beginning of another war in Lebanon, and after the security leaks crisis that toppled officials from Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s office.
The Israeli government is witnessing changes in some of its figures and orientations, more than a year after the outbreak of the war on October 7, 2023, as Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu dismissed Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Galant and appointed Foreign Minister Yisrael Katz as his successor, and appointed Gideon Sa’ar as Foreign Minister on November 5, 2024, in a step directly linked to the course of the war in the Gaza Strip and Lebanon and the Israeli goals thereof, and at the same time returns the issue of the dispute between Netanyahu and Galant to its origins years before the war, with a major difference related to the timing of the recent dismissal at an advanced stage of the war, and coinciding with the return of Donald Trump as President-elect of the United States.
Background of the dismissal and the origin of the dispute
The course of the war in the Gaza Strip and Lebanon, and the divergent views between Galant and Netanyahu regarding the priorities of each arena and Israel’s goals in them, led to their differences reaching a peak, as Netanyahu justified the reasons for his dismissal as “a rift in trust and large gaps between them in managing the war,” especially regarding Galant’s statements and actions that sometimes contradicted the decisions of the government and the inner cabinet. In contrast, the latter attributed the reasons for his dismissal to his position on the issue of compulsory conscription of religious Jews, his priority in returning the Israeli detainees in the Gaza Strip, and his insistence on calling for the formation of an official commission of inquiry into the failures of the security and military apparatuses on October 7, 2023.
However, this disagreement over the management of the war is not new, as the relationship between them has been beset by many problems in recent months, and the crisis between them surfaced several times during the war before culminating in the dismissal. In mid-September, many reports and leaks indicated that Netanyahu was seriously considering dismissing the defense minister and forming an alliance with the head of the National Right Party, Gideon Sa’ar, as his replacement, before he backed down as a result of the launch of ground military operations in southern Lebanon in early October . Even during the first months of the war, differences between the two parties appeared in several practices, and on more than one occasion, as Galant, along with the head of the “State Camp” party, Benny Gantz , who was a member of the War Council before his resignation on June 9, 2024 , refused to appear at press conferences with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.
In fact, when looking at the history of relations between Galant and Netanyahu, it quickly becomes clear what multiple stations and crises they have witnessed. Although the former left his former party (Kulna Party) in 2019 and joined Likud, and agreed with Netanyahu on ideas supporting settlers and settlement in the West Bank, there are issues of disagreement no less important than the points of agreement, including Galant’s oppositional position against the judicial amendments bill, against the backdrop of which came Netanyahu’s first attempts to dismiss Galant from the Ministry of Defense in late March 2023, before he backed down as a result of pressure from the Israeli street at the time. In addition to the disagreement over his position in support of compulsory conscription for religious Jews (Haredi), as he believes that “everyone of conscription age should join the army,” especially in light of the Israeli army’s need for recruits in light of a multi-front war. On the day of his dismissal, he had issued 7,000 conscription orders for Haredim eligible to serve in the army.
Timing of dismissal and its implications
Galant’s dismissal came at a delicate time, between the supposed end of the war in the Gaza Strip and the beginning of another war in Lebanon, and after the security leaks crisis that toppled officials from the Prime Minister’s Office. Meanwhile, the dismissal decision was linked to political reasons, especially by the Israeli opposition, as opposition leader Yair Lapid accused “Netanyahu of selling out Israel’s security and soldiers for his political survival,” and Benny Gantz described it as political and at the expense of the security of the State of Israel, while former Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert called for civil disobedience against the government, in addition to calls from members of the Knesset for Israelis to protest against the decision.
However, perhaps the most important event in the timing of the dismissal is that it coincided with polling day in the US elections. It is clear that the Israeli government had a high estimate of Donald Trump’s chances of winning, and this was reflected in Netanyahu’s choice of Yisrael Katz as a replacement for Galant, and instead of Gideon Sa’ar, who was the most prominent candidate in September 2024 to take over the Ministry of Defense. Katz has previous relations with Donald Trump, when he was Minister of Transportation in Israel and then Foreign Minister (2019 ) during the first Trump administration (2017-2021), and was part of the team involved in the recent peace agreements, unlike Galant, who has close relations with the administration of US President Joe Biden, during which he played a role in coordinating positions between the United States and Israel, especially during crises, but it has always been a factor in the crisis of confidence between Galant and Netanyahu.
The role of impeachment in promoting the right’s goals from the war
Donald Trump’s victory in the presidency and the governmental changes in Israel unite the theoretical and intellectual visions between the two countries, especially with regard to the preference of both parties for resolution rather than conflict management. On the one hand, US President-elect Donald Trump tried during his first administration to resolve the Palestinian issue, by proposing the deal of the century in 2020, which includes recognition of Israeli settlements in the West Bank and Jerusalem as the capital of Israel – officially recognized on December 6, 2017 – in exchange for the Palestinians obtaining a capital for them from some of the suburbs of East Jerusalem occupied since 1967.
On the other hand, Galant’s dismissal has implications on more than one level; as there is no longer a person with a deep military or security background in Netanyahu’s circle to make decisions, and it will strengthen the role of politicians from the extreme right, who seek to implement their plans on many issues, especially in the conscription law and judicial amendments, and what is related to them regarding the war in the Gaza Strip and Lebanon, as Katz and Sa’ar take positions that are closer to Netanyahu and the extreme right ministers regarding the war, especially on post-war issues, as they both support the complete elimination of Hamas and Hezbollah, and the return of Israeli settlements to the Gaza Strip, compared to former Defense Minister Galant, who was constantly demanding to discuss the day after the war and determine its directions, and publicly rejected on May 15, 2024, “Israeli control over the Gaza Strip after the war”, and was showing openness towards the Israeli concession of the Philadelphi Corridor in exchange for the return of the Israeli detainees. Therefore, the far-right ministers linked the decision to dismiss him to the progress on the ground in the Gaza Strip. National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir said that “complete victory cannot be achieved with him,” and Communications Minister Shlomo Karhi stated that Galant “did not live up to the spirit of heroism displayed by the Israeli army,” while Heritage Minister Amichai Eliyahu believed that the dismissal would lead to a better security reality in Gaza.
Finally , the Israeli government reshuffle and Trump’s return to the White House reinforce the visions of the extreme Israeli right regarding the day after the war, and at the same time threaten the Palestinian and Lebanese geography, at a time when Israel is making geographical and demographic changes in the Gaza Strip, specifically in the far north and Jabalia , and in the Lebanese villages bordering Israel, and with the weakness of both Hamas and the Lebanese Hezbollah , the year 2025 may witness decisive decisions regarding the situation in Lebanon and Gaza, such as the risks of American recognition of Israel’s sovereignty over the Shebaa Farms, similar to Donald Trump’s recognition during his first presidency of Israel’s sovereignty over the Golan on March 25, 2019, and the legitimization of the buffer border areas that Israel is expanding in the Gaza Strip and seeking to establish in southern Lebanon.
As for the escalation against Iran, it is likely that the factors controlling that escalation have declined with the presidential transition in the United States and the dismissal of Galant, as Netanyahu has been working to strike Iranian nuclear facilities since 2010, and he sought to do so during the last escalation cycle, but he faced opposition from the Biden administration and the security establishment. Therefore, the future of escalation between the two countries is now open to several scenarios, including agreement between Trump and Netanyahu on the need to neutralize Iran from regional issues and prevent it from developing a nuclear weapon.