The Eastern Mediterranean gas play extends across the offshore areas of Lebanon, Israel, Palestine, Egypt, Cyprus and, by its own insistence, even Turkey. The next phase of commercial development is incredibly complicated given the interplay of petroleum geology, national policies and regional politics, competing energy markets (local gas versus global LNG), existing infrastructure and corporate strategies.
As Turkey is gearing up for one of the most momentous elections in recent history, early campaigning has shown that any issue — from national security to foreign policy — can quickly turn into campaign material.
Part III: The Coordination Framework
Nearly one year after Iraq’s October 2021 parliamentary elections, the government has yet to be formed. The government formation power struggle pits the Sadrist Movement, led by populist Shi’a cleric Sayyid Muqtada al-Sadr, against the Coordination Framework (CF),1 a loose association of Shi’a parties, united mostly by their opposition to the Sadrist Movement. Central to the dispute are longstanding political rivalries and personal feuds in competition over government postings. Upon Sadr’s instructions, Sadrist MPs resigned from parliament in June after opponents’ efforts and a judicial decision thwarted his attempts to form a national majority government. Sadr’s supporters staged a nearly month-long sit-in that eventually ended when they stormed another government building in the Green Zone and armed groups aligned with the CF fired on protesters and clashed with Saraya al-Salam, the Sadrist Movement’s armed wing. The clashes left more than 30 dead and in the aftermath, Sadr announced his “resignation”2 from politics. Political downtime observed during the Arba’een religious pilgrimage ended on Sept. 17 and negotiations have since recommenced. Despite the ongoing national dialogue (which the Sadrists have declined to join thus far), deadlock continues and many fear future violence unless both camps can agree on mutually acceptable concessions.
Sept. 21, 2022, marked the eighth anniversary of the Houthis’ takeover of Sana’a, Yemen’s capital, under the pretext of fighting corruption and poverty. But what initially was presented as a struggle against injustice ended up being nothing more than a power grab masquerading as a rebellion. Since 2014, most of northern Yemen has become isolated after the Houthis alienated their opponents and executed their one-time ally, former President Ali Abdullah Saleh, shattering trust in the possibility of future alliances with their movement. Throughout the war, the country has undergone a radical political, religious, and cultural makeover, partially overturning the Yemeni Republic and opening a new chapter as a theological state presided over by a religious leader, Abdul Malek al-Houthi.
This move may be the first sign of “opening relations” between Turkey and the regime, according to al-Souria Net.
The military factions controlling northern Syria, whether in Idleb or rural Aleppo, are preparing to open crossings with Assad-controlled areas. This move may be the first sign of “opening relations” between Turkey, which oversees the north and the regime, according to the pro-regime newspaper Al-Watan.
The first of which was the opening of the National Army crossing, Abu al-Zandin, in the vicinity of the city of al-Bab east of Aleppo. It opened for only two hours, and two trucks entered before it was closed again.
Hours later, Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham’s (HTS) survey and engineering teams began equipping the Tarnaba crossing between the outskirts of the town of Sarmin and Saraqeb, which is under the control of Assad’s forces.
Russia is pushing Turkey in the direction of normalization with the Syrian government, according to Athr Press.
Several members of the Syrian Opposition Coalition (SOC) have leaked documents in which Turkey warns SOC not to waste time in any talks between the opposition and the Syrian government. The documents note that Turkish-Syrian talks were one of Russia’s conditions for Turkey to play the role of mediator between Russia and Ukraine. These developments coincide with talk of obstacles and stumbling blocks in Turkish-Syrian political talks, as well as several reports spreading that Ankara plans to close SOC’s offices and withdraw financial support from it.
A fragile truce concluded on 14 September halted fighting between Azerbaijan and Armenia that left hundreds of soldiers dead. In this Q&A, Crisis Group explains what occurred and what needs to happen now to restart the peace process between the two foes.
Yemen’s six-month truce is up for renewal on 2 October. The UN and external powers should redouble their efforts to forge agreement on an expanded deal. If those look set to fall short, however, they should propose interim arrangements that avert a return to major combat.
A pre-election standoff between Bosniaks and Croats in Bosnia and Herzegovina has taken an ugly turn, with rhetoric from the 1990s war reappearing. Ideally, politicians would make the reforms needed to settle the quarrel but, if not, the internationally appointed high representative should do so.
BALTIC SEA
Two explosions Monday damaged the Nord Stream pipelines, which carry Russian natural gas to European markets, causing leaks into international waters off a Danish island. Russia had switched off the pipelines earlier in September amid tensions with the West over its war in Ukraine. European Commission head Ursula von der Leyen and NATO chief Jens Stoltenberg both described the blasts as “sabotage”. The press quoted unnamed European leaders pointing the finger at Moscow, which denied any role, suggesting instead that Washington had most to gain from damaging the pipelines. Crisis Group expert Giuseppe Famà says the incidents will not only add immediate pressure on European gas prices but also cast Nord Stream’s future into doubt as Europe strives to diversify its energy supply sources in order to curb its dependence on Russia.