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CTP-ISW will not publish a morning update given the ceasefire between Israel and Iran. All analysis of the Israel-Iran war will be covered in the daily evening update unless events warrant a resumption of twice-daily updates.

Israel conducted a two-week air campaign with the objective of degrading, destroying and removing the threat of Iran’s nuclear program.[1] Israel also pursued two supporting objectives to limit Iranian retaliation and provide itself with an offramp. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu stated that “Operation Rising Lion” achieved all of Israel’s war aims “and much more.”[2] Israel described Iran’s nuclear program as an existential threat to Israel and stated that it would not allow Iran to weaponize its program.[3] Israel achieved its objectives vis-a-vis the nuclear program by destroying nuclear facilities and enrichment capacity with US support and killing key nuclear scientists who were instrumental in the development and weaponization of the program. The Israeli campaign, supported by US strikes, “effectively destroyed” Iran’s enrichment capacity, though stockpiles of various amounts of enriched uranium remain.[4] Iran’s ability to enrich these to weapons grade uranium is complicated by the destruction of most of Iran’s centrifuges and the loss of many nuclear scientists.[5] There is more information about the status of the nuclear program below.

Le marché boursier a été le premier à «poser le diagnostic» de la réponse de Téhéran à la frappe américaine contre des sites nucléaires : alors que les missiles iraniens volaient encore en direction de la base militaire d’Al-Udeid au Qatar, les prix du pétrole avaient déjà commencé à chuter brutalement. Le marché a clairement interprété cet événement comme un acte symbolique (l’Iran ne pouvait pas ne pas répondre) avant une désescalade, et les événements qui ont suivi ont confirmé cette prévision.

La guerre qui fait rage au Moyen-Orient s’inscrit dans le cadre d’un effort désespéré visant à préserver l’hégémonie occidentale. Tous les conflits, qu’ils aient lieu en Palestine, au Liban, en Syrie, au Yémen ou en Iran, sont le fait du sionisme, qui joue le rôle de gendarme de l’Occident au Moyen-Orient et dispose d’une force militaire écrasante.

The Islamic Republic, long sustained by repression and violence, is now drowning in a crisis of internal security breaches and the death of its core ideology—Velayat-e Faqih (Guardianship of the Islamic Jurist).

This crisis stems not only from external conflicts but from a deep internal collapse within the regime, which has lost legitimacy and functionality even among its most loyal institutions, such as the IRGC. The sound of this regime’s collapse can now be heard from Tehran to the farthest provinces.

The letter [from the leader of the Muslim Brotherhood, Salah Abdel Haq] shows that the Muslim Brotherhood has officially endorsed the Iranian regime’s slogans of “Death to Israel!” and “Death to America!”

The [Muslim Brotherhood’s] founder, Hassan al-Banna, accepted the utility of political violence, and members of the Muslim Brotherhood conducted assassinations….

Exclusive: As Israel uses F-35 fighter jets to bomb Iran and Gaza, we reveal parts for these warplanes were transported via London last month.

Fighter jet components were transported via London Stansted airport to Israel last month, shipping documents seen by Declassified and The Ditch indicate.