The Western Balkans At A Crossroads: An Old War From In New Geopolitical Compositions (Part II) – OpEd

The Western Balkans is transforming into one of the primary fronts of confrontation between global powers, where Russia’s and Serbia’s hybrid strategies directly challenge the stability and sovereignty of countries in the region. This paper examines the complex dimensions of this hybrid warfare, focusing on recent attacks in Banjska and Zvecan, which signify a deliberate escalation aimed at destabilizing Kosovo. Through the use of demographic manipulations, sabotage of critical infrastructure, and the provocation of ethnic tensions, Russia and Serbia are leveraging the Balkans as a battleground to advance their strategic projects, such as “Srpski Svet” and “Ruski Mir”.

How Turkey aims to capitalise on Syria’s rebel offensive

Analysis: The crisis could allow Turkey to advance two long-held goals: the mass return of Syrian refugees and eliminating the Kurdish presence on its border.

Syria’s civil war has returned to the spotlight as groups opposed to President Bashar Al-Assad launched surprise offensives last week, capturing parts of Aleppo, the country’s second-largest city, and gaining ground in the city for the first time since 2015.

Syria Insight: Assad’s rampant corruption leads to his downfall

The Syrian Arab Army is no more, an institution built to fight Israel that eventually ate itself due to rampant corruption and ineptitude.

Few analysts could have predicted the events that unfolded last week in Syria when a limited rebel offensive in Aleppo province led to the downfall of Bashar Al-Assad’s regime, 13 years after a revolution against his corrupt and authoritarian rule began.

What the fall of Assad could mean for the Middle East

Analysis: The end of the Assad family’s 54-year rule is the start of a new chapter in Syrian history, one that will have reverberations across the Middle East.

For years, many commentators inaccurately claimed that former Syrian President Bashar al-Assad and his government had “won” the civil war. In truth, the Assad regime had, until a few days ago, merely survived the conflict, which froze in 2020.

Looking West: The Houthis’ Expanding Footprint in the Horn of Africa

Abstract: The Yemen-based Houthis’ top priority is the continued development of their unmanned vehicle and missile programs. Both programs are vital to the Houthis’ ability to exert leverage over both their domestic and external enemies. Securing supply chains and funding for the programs, especially funding and supplies that are independent of Iran, is a key objective for the Houthi leadership. To this end, the Houthis have deepened their relationship with Yemen-based al-Qa`ida in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP). AQAP, in turn, has opened new doors for the Houthis to interact with Horn of Africa-based militant groups such as al-Shabaab. Both AQAP and al-Shabaab now act as facilitators and, to a degree, as partners that help the Houthis smuggle needed materiel into and out of Yemen. These relationships are also vital to the Houthis’ expanding efforts to fund their weapons programs and the broader organization. The Houthis’ relationship with al-Shabaab and Horn of Africa-based smugglers points to the organization’s growing footprint in the Horn of Africa.

How the Wagner Group Is Aggravating the Jihadi Threat in the Sahel

Abstract: Over the past year, mercenaries from the Wagner Group, a private military company with very close ties to the Kremlin, deployed to Mali—first to Bamako, the capital, then to the central part of the country, then in the east all the way to Gao and Ménaka and in the north to Timbuktu. The arrival of Russian mercenaries hastened the departure of French and European forces. However, the Russian private military company did not deploy capable, disciplined, and well-equipped troops to fill the gap, and its brutal and indiscriminate counterinsurgency efforts are serving as a recruiting tool for the jihadis. A year after the arrival of the Russian mercenaries to Mali, the security situation has worsened. Despite ongoing fighting between al-Qa`ida and the Islamic State’s branches in the Sahel, the two terrorist groups are consolidating their sanctuaries and gaining an unprecedented range of action. With concern that Wagner may seek out Burkina Faso as its next client, the Russian mercenaries’ aggravation of the jihadi threat has very concerning implications for the stability and security of the region.

En Occident, la mascarade électorale s’est éteinte, refroidie par l’ordre fondé sur les règles

Les derniers mois ont été éprouvants pour la démocratie. Les résultats d’élections hostiles à l’Union européenne ont été annulés en Roumanie. Une tentative de coup d’État a eu lieu en Géorgie à la suite d’élections qui ne se sont pas déroulées comme le souhaitait l’Occident. Le gouvernement français, largement conspué, s’est retrouvé au bord de l’abîme quand le président Emmanuel Macron a tenté d’ignorer les dernières élections. Le 16 décembre, le gouvernement allemand, chouchou de Washington, a été défait. Le référendum et les élections en Moldavie ont donné lieu à de nombreuses manipulations, les électeurs moldaves vivant en Russie ayant été privés de leur droit de vote. Les élections sont annulées depuis longtemps dans l’Ukraine dictatoriale, et la Corée du Sud a été le théâtre d’une tentative de coup d’État. En bref, la passion des démocraties occidentales pour les élections est révolue. Alors que les populations occidentales en ont assez de leur classe politique et se prononcent négativement, que peuvent faire les élites ? Annuler, renverser les gouvernements et ignorer les élections, voilà la solution. Le problème, pour l’Occident, ce sont les électeurs.

Islamic State Narrative on Recent Events in Syria: Analysis of al-Naba Issue 473

The Islamic State has utilised the recent collapse of the Assad regime in Syria and the rise of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) to intensify its ideological campaign. Through its latest issue of al-Naba (issue 473), released in recent days, the group has disseminated a narrative portraying these events as betrayals of Islamic principles and evidence of external manipulation.

Anarchy in the Levant: Your future dream is a chaos scheme

Tehran and Moscow harbor no illusions – and are preparing accordingly. The war on BRICS is just getting started.

Syria as we knew it is being eviscerated in real time – in geographic, cultural, economic and military terms – by an appalling confluence of mercenary Rent-a-Jihadi mobs and psychopathological genocidals praying at the altar of Eretz Israel.

Hopes and Uncertainties in Syria

Many Western leaders have expressed their relief at the collapse of the dictatorship of Syria’s Bashar al-Assad. Cities such as Homs and Damascus were taken by the coalition led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS, or the Organization for the Liberation of the Levant) almost without combat. The reality is that the seemingly unshakeable fifty-four-year-old rule of the Assad dynasty had been rotting from within.