What role for Europe in the Middle East and North Africa?

Now that Europe is desperate to find new energy suppliers, the resource-rich countries of the Middle East and North Africa are hoping to boost their economy and influence.

  • Europe is unlikely to turn back to Russia for energy even after the war
  • MENA countries have suddenly become much more valuable allies
  • World powers’ competition for influence in the region will intensify

Burkina Faso: Another Russia-West hotspot?

A weak central government, a fragmented military and Islamic terrorism threaten to turn the Sahel nation into a geopolitical confrontation zone.

  • Two military coups in 2022 highlight political instability, horrendous violence
  • The nation may become the next battleground between Russia and the West
  • Strict military rule is seen as a bulwark against Islamic jihadist groups

The risks of an ISIS comeback

Islamic State has faced considerable losses in recent years, but not enough to permanently prevent the organization from resurging.

On February 9, 2022, the United States-led Global Coalition to Defeat ISIS issued a communique stating that it “remains resolutely committed to achieving the enduring defeat of ISIS. Recent events in Syria underscore both the success we continue to have in degrading Daesh/ISIS leadership and the continuing threat the terrorist group poses in the region and beyond.” Is the terror organization close to making a comeback? Despite sporadic successes, it still has a long way to go.

APPLY THE LOGIC OF THE AFGHANISTAN WITHDRAWAL TO SYRIA

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has entered its twelfth month. Reporting on the conflict understandably focuses on the day-to-day fighting and destruction, but it is important for Americans and U.S. policymakers to understand the larger issues raised by the war and the U.S. role in it. The following Defense Priorities analysis aims to improve understanding of these issues and what U.S. policy should prioritize as the war continues.

Map of Ukraine and contested territories

Apply the logic of the Afghanistan withdrawal to Syria

Key points

  • The logic President Biden used for removing U.S. troops from Afghanistan applies to Syria. Since a U.S. intervention should be defined by clear, achievable goals, and since long-range strikes, instead of occupying forces, can accomplish U.S. counterterrorism goals, there is no good case for keeping U.S. troops in Syria either.
  • Around 900 U.S. forces currently occupy territory in eastern and southern Syria, risking conflict with Syrian forces and local militias, as well as Russian, Iranian, and Turkish forces.
  • ISIS’s territorial caliphate in Syria was eliminated in 2019. The few, small, remote areas the remnants of ISIS now hold are largely within territory held by Syrian government forces. Local forces can fight the remnants of ISIS.
  • None of the other standard rationales for keeping U.S. forces in Syria—protecting the Kurds, countering Iran and Russia, unseating the Assad regime—justifies keeping troops in Syria either.

That Time US Forces Tore Hundreds of Russian Wagner Group Mercenaries to Pieces in Syria

It’s been one month since Russia invaded Ukraine. What Vladimir Putin and much of the world originally expected to be a quick and easy victory over their smaller neighbor has rapidly devolved into a military disaster for Russia. The Pentagon estimated more than 7,000 Russian soldiers had been killed since the invasion started, while NATO believes the number could be as high as 15,000. Russian generals continue to die, and reports are describing mass desertions and fratricide on the front lines. As much of the world celebrates the modern David versus Goliath story, cracks in the veneer of Russia’s supposed military might have shone through long before the invasion of Ukraine, and a four-hour battle that unfolded in Syria in 2018 is one of the most striking examples.