Libya: Security Actors in Misrata, Zawiya and Zintan Since 2011

How local factors shape Libya’s security sector, and what this means for disarmament, demobilization and reintegration

In the absence of durable political and security institutions at national level, there can be no ‘one size fits all’ approach to disarmament, demobilization and reintegration (DDR) across Libya. But as the country’s sprawling security sector continues to grow, with fresh recruits signing up to join the many state-affiliated and non-state-affiliated armed groups, it is clear that planning for DDR cannot wait for a ‘post-conflict’ situation.

Damascus and its Kurds: America’s Syndrome!

Given that the U.S. presence is vital for the survival of the AANES, the prospect of withdrawal leaves the entire issue uncertain Akil Mahfouz writes in Athr Press.

While the Autonomous Administration and the SDF exert significant control in eastern Syria, the region faces persistent high levels of perceived threats. The presence of the United States, supporting the Autonomous Administration and opposing Turkey, contributes to this tension. There’s an American interest in forming militias from local tribes, potentially serving as a “partial replacement” along the Euphrates line and the Syria-Iraq border. Forecasts suggest a greater likelihood of violence than resolution in eastern Syria, intensifying tensions between the SDF and Arab tribes in the Euphrates line.

The War In Gaza Is Changing The Muslim World

With their uncritical support of Israel, Western leaders have kickstarted the same polarization in Muslim societies that led to the 1967 Arab-Israeli war and the birth of violent Islamic fundamentalism.

The Western world is unequivocal in its support of Israel in the ongoing Gaza conflict. This much has been clearly demonstrated, when Western political leaders started parading the corridors of power in Israeli capital Tel Aviv after the October 7 Hamas attacks on Israeli territory that according to Israeli claims, killed more than 1,400 people. A prolonged conflict in Gaza and the larger Middle East involving other regional countries apart from Israel and Palestine could be devastating for western European countries from two perspectives. Firstly, a prolonged conflict, especially involving Iran, could generate a refugee crisis with Southern European countries with coastlines on the Mediterranean Sea receiving most of the refugees from the Arab world. Secondly, as feared by some western experts, it could also lead to terror attacks in Europe.

The Houthis’ Red Sea missile and drone attack: Drivers and implications

On Oct. 19, the Pentagon press secretary, Air Force Brig. Gen. Pat Ryder, confirmed that the Iran-backed Houthi militia targeted the USS Carney, an Arleigh Burke-class guided-missile destroyer, in the Red Sea. The USS Carney reportedly intercepted three cruise missiles and several drones without sustaining any damage or casualties. Although the Houthis have yet to claim responsibility for the attack, the drones and missiles were likely fired from north-western, Houthi-held positions in Hodeida and Hajjah governorates on Yemen’s Red Sea coast and were headed “north” without an established target at the time of reporting. Since September, the Houthis have reportedly intensified their naval military training in al-Luhayya district in northern Hodeida and brought in new medium and heavy weapons capabilities, suggesting that they intend to launch an attack on strategic maritime and trade routes, a senior military official told the author.

Gaza war hasn’t halted de-escalation efforts in Yemen

With the war in Gaza now in its third month, there are ongoing fears that the conflict may spill over, particularly given the risk of escalation involving Iran’s network of proxies. Between Oct. 18 and Dec. 11, the Iran-backed Houthi rebels in Yemen claim to have launched 10 “large batches” of missiles and drones into Israel, with some falling or getting intercepted in the Red Sea, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, and Jordan, reportedly without causing any damage or casualties. The Houthis also performed an unprecedented helicopter-landing hijack — emulating tactics used by Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps — of an Israel-linked commercial vessel leased to Japan, on Nov. 19, in violation of international maritime law. On Dec. 3, the group attacked three commercial vessels in the Red Sea, with ties to 14 different nations, using anti-ship ballistic missiles and drones. The Houthis upped the ante further on Dec. 8, threatening to block all ships sailing to Israel, regardless of nationality, until Gaza receives humanitarian aid, and launched another missile attack on a Norwegian-flagged tanker on Dec. 12

2 Attacks Launched by Yemen’s Houthi Rebels Strike Container Ships in Vital Red Sea Corridor

A ballistic missile fired by Yemen’s Houthi rebels slammed into a cargo ship Friday in the Red Sea near the strategic Bab el-Mandeb Strait, following another attack only hours earlier that struck a separate vessel, authorities said.

The missile attack on the MSC Palatium III and the earlier assault on the Al Jasrah escalate a maritime campaign by the Iranian-backed Houthis. The attacks also endanger ships traveling through a vital corridor for cargo and energy shipments for both Europe and Asia from the Suez Canal out to the Indian Ocean.

The Crisis of African Democracy

Coups Are a Symptom—Not the Cause—of Political Dysfunction

These days, a question crops up when African officials gather to discuss governance: Which president will be ousted by his military next? In the first two decades of this century, 13 successful coups took place in Africa. But from August 2020 to November 2023, seven African leaders were toppled by their own militaries. While these military takeovers have so far primarily occurred in a belt of instability that stretches from Niger to Sudan, the risk of broader contagion is real. In already fragile states, coups tend to reverse economic and political progress, and so stemming their rise may be the most urgent task for Africa in the coming decade.