Filling the Void Left by Great-Power Retrenchment: Russia, Central Asia, and the U.S. Withdrawal from Afghanistan

The U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan, ending in August 2021, created favorable conditions for Russia to reassert itself as a regional hegemon in broader Central Asia. Historically, as great powers retrench from a territory, the resulting void can be filled either by rival powers or by friendly successor states responsive to the retrenching power’s agenda. While the United States has lacked reliable successors to take its place in the region, Russia has asserted itself in a number of ways to boost its own power and influence. Moscow has not only cultivated bilateral ties with each of the five Central Asian states, but it has also instrumentalized regional security organizations to advance its interests. However, the full-scale assault against Ukraine beginning in 2022 has undermined Russia’s initiatives in Central Asia and its aspirations for regional hegemony. The Central Asian countries fear Moscow’s apparent neo-imperial ambitions and prefer to develop multi-vectored foreign relations. In this situation, China is poised to supplant Russia as the dominant power and security provider in the region, which could create tensions within the so-called partnership without limits between Moscow and Beijing.

Isolation of Glushkovsky district in Kursk region, UAVs flew to Murmansk, evacuation from Pokrovsk. What happened on the front this week

In today’s summary:

  • In Kursk region, Ukrainian troops are trying to occupy the regional center of Korenevo and completely isolate the Glushkovsky district
  • The Russian command has not yet transferred units from Donbass to the Kursk direction
  • The Russian Armed Forces have increased the pace of their advance toward Pokrovsk; a mass evacuation has been organized in the city itself
  • Ukrainian drones hit the Marinovka military airfield in the Volgograd region and almost reached Murmansk
  • The names of over a hundred conscripts who went missing and were captured in the Kursk region have been established
  • The US administration has not responded to a request for permission to use Storm Shadow on Russian territory for over a month
  • Germany plans to cut military aid to Ukraine from the budget, replacing it with loans secured by frozen Russian assets
  • Kamikaze drones from a sewer pipe and the first tank with a fully rubberized “king-barbecue” have been spotted on the front lines
  • The situation at the front
  • The offensive operation of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in the Kursk region has been going on for more than two weeks. In recent days, no large-scale changes in the LBS have been observed , but actions to expand the combat zone have not ceased. The presence of Ukrainian troops was reported in Olgovka , Vishnevka and Snagost on the approaches to Korenevo – another regional center, which is apparently planned to be taken after Sudzha .

Le projet d’un «Patriot Act» allemand vient d’être révélé

Entrées clandestines dans les maisons, piratage, logiciels espions : l’Allemagne veut étendre les pouvoirs de la police.

Actuellement, les perquisitions ne sont autorisées en Allemagne que si les forces de l’ordre informent explicitement la personne concernée des soupçons concrets pesant sur elle, et du but de la perquisition. Selon des révélations exclusives du journal Spiegel, cela s’apprête à changer.

Perquisitions secrètes

The trail leads to Sheiman. BIC uncovers schemes to evade sanctions on fertiliser and luxury car sales

Both schemes are connected by the Cypriot company Dimicandum Invest Holding LTD and are linked to the Presidential Affairs Department of Belarus.

A European company assists Belaruskali in the export of sanctioned fertilisers. However, the only European element it contains is that of being registered in Cyprus. The company is owned by a native of Eastern Ukraine. The CFO is a former Belarusian official. Evidence gathered by BIC suggests that Viktar Sheiman, Aleksandr Lukashenko’s closest associate, is likely linked to this scheme, making money by inflating the transportation and expedition cost for the state-owned potash producer. In the course of this investigation, we have also uncovered another crime to which he may be linked – the illegal re-export of premium cars from Ukraine to Russia.

Russie-Afrique : Wagner et les mercenaires de Poutine, l’enquête en BD

Nos collaborateurs Mathieu Olivier et Benjamin Roger retracent, dans une bande dessinée documentaire, « l’histoire secrète des mercenaires de Poutine », notamment sur le continent africain.

La couverture de l’album ressemble à des poupées gigognes. Au centre, petite, une tête de mort blanche trône au milieu du logotype noir de la société paramilitaire Wagner. Le logo estampille la poitrine d’un Evgueni Prigojine kaki. La silhouette menaçante de l’oligarque balafre un arrière-plan rougeoyant dominé par un visage incomplet mais reconnaissable, celui du président russe qui surplombe la fresque. La bande dessinée Wagner, l’histoire secrète des mercenaires de Poutine paraît, ce 8 février, aux éditions Les Arènes.

Nord Stream : les complotistes avaient encore une fois raison

Il était pourtant clair que la Russie était dirigée d’une main de fer par un fou assoiffé de puissance et que ce dernier, faisant fi de toute rationalité et alors que le conflit avec l’Ukraine s’éternisait, avait fait sauter le pipeline sous-marin Nordstream, plongeant les Allemands dans le désarroi.

Kremlin shocked, but undeterred, by Ukraine’s Kursk incursion

Ukraine’s unexpected incursion into the Russian border region of Kursk has brought the war home to many Russians in an immediate and deeply distressing way.

Ukrainian troops occupied dozens of villages and forced the evacuation of almost 200,000 people from the southwestern region. Russian media have graphically covered the scenes of chaos and panic. The reports convey at least some of the fear and despair of local people hustled onto buses amid vistas of violence and destruction.

Is Russia Raising Specter of ‘Dirty Bomb’ to Prime Public for False Flag?

Ukraine’s surprise incursion into Kursk and Belgorod, the first foreign invasion of Russia since World War II, has put the Kremlin’s mouthpieces into a tizzy as they simultaneously argue that the “provocation” is intended to “sow internal chaos,” but that, fear not, “order will be restored.”

Some speculate that if Russia is not able to quickly get its act together, it may turn to its old playbook of dirty tricks, hoping that a false flag operation could remedy the embarrassing problem of having gone from being “the occupiers of Ukraine,” to being “occupied by Ukraine.”