Rusia

It seems to be a case of little provision for so much supposed effect. The debates, the squabbles, the to-and-fro about supplying Ukraine with tanks from Western arsenals has served to confirm one thing: this is an ever-broadening war between the West against Russia with Ukraine an experimental proxy convinced it will win through. Efforts to limit the deepening conflict continue to be seen as the quailing sentiments of appeasers, the wobbly types who find democracy a less than lovable thing.

Coming Soon To A War Near You

In a stunning reversal of policy, the Biden administration has decided to provide the Ukrainian armed forces with 31 M1A2 Abrams main battle tanks. The announcement comes on the heels of Germany capitulating and agreeing to send 14 of their Leopard 2 tanks to the besieged nation. Berlin also gave the green light for other countries to send German-made Leopard 2s to Ukraine.

If Putin succeeds in winning even a little territory, his victory will embolden other predators.

Retired British Army Colonel Richard Kemp describes Putin’s plan as a “desperate gamble…. Moscow at present does not have the numbers to decisively overcome resistance from the depleted Ukrainian army”. Putin nevertheless has the ability to turn Ukraine into a grease-spot, then take on Moldova, the Baltic States and whatever else he wants.

Last week US National Security Council spokesman John Kirby said that the Treasury Department will designate the private military company (PMC) Wagner Group as a transnational criminal organisation (TCO). Western states and institutions have explored a variety of legal mechanisms against Wagner in recent years, including terrorism designations and sanctions for supporting separatist forces in Ukraine. The TCO designation is thus the latest measure in a layered sanctioning strategy designed to counter the PMC’s vital and frequently brutal role in advancing Russian state interests internationally. In this piece, we demonstrate that the legal case for the TCO designation is strong. Wagner unambiguously meets the criteria for what constitutes a TCO.

The small Ukrainian city of Bakhmut has seemingly limited strategic significance. But coupled with its growing psychological value, Russia will continue attempting to take the city, despite high casualties, by whatever means necessary.

The scope of the Biden administration’s response to the invasion of Ukraine has already exceeded what many observers—not to mention Russia’s leadership—expected. From intelligence sharing with Kyiv ahead of the invasion to the imposition of unprecedented sanctions on the Russian economy to the provision of increasingly capable weaponry to Ukraine’s armed forces, the United States has been critical to the failure of Russia’s “special military operation” to achieve its objectives. Despite US support and Ukrainian valor, the war is now approaching a second year, and several observers in the United States and in Europe have become increasingly alarmed at the consequence of a longer war.