Contrairement aux commentaires de la presse occidentale, Evgueni Prigojine n’a jamais tenté de coup d’État contre Vladimir Poutine. Il a voulu le faire chanter afin de conserver les privilèges exorbitants qu’il a accumulés depuis la création de sa société militaire privée. Puis il s’est rendu à la raison et a réintégré son poste.
Nobody in Russia understands what the war in Ukraine is about. And now, nobody knows if that war is coming to them.
When I saw the first images of armed men in ragtag uniforms taking over the Russian city of Rostov-on-Don on Saturday morning, I was immediately reminded of the “little green men” who began showing up in cities in Crimea and eastern Ukraine in 2014. Like the Russian troops and soldiers-of-fortune who began the Kremlin’s covert invasion of Ukraine, the fighters in Rostov displayed no insignia as they seized key buildings, including the headquarters of Russia’s Southern Military District. Just as in Ukraine nine years ago, there was no resistance from local law enforcement officers, who chose life over a fight with determined gunmen.
Top Russian officials rallied around President Vladimir Putin in a clear sign of support for the Kremlin on Monday, two days after paramilitary Wagner Group leader Yevgeny Prigozhin seized the strategic city of Rostov-on-Don and began an advance toward the capital.
Blink and you could have missed it. Within 36 hours, the challenge mounted against the Kremlin by Yevgeny Prigozhin, the leader of the mercenary private military company the Wagner Group, was over. On Friday June 23 2023, Prigozhin ordered 25,000 of his troops on to a “march for justice”, which duly set out to confront the Russian president in Moscow. The following afternoon he called it off.
It is increasingly clear that a rattled Vladimir Putin’s political end is approaching. All that really matters now is whether it comes sooner or later.
Having appeared on national television to warn of a coup attempt by traitors – and an impending civil war – Putin abruptly reversed his position only a couple of hours later. The Kremlin announced that Yevgeny Prigozhin, the chief protagonist, would go into exile in Belarus and all charges against him had been dropped.
Even in such a fast-moving war, still some events have the ability to surprise. The decision by Wagner Group leader, Yevgeny Prigozhin, to launch an apparent coup attempt, leading his troops into Russia, where he occupied the military HQ in Rostov and was heading towards Moscow, appeared to have left the Kremlin floundering.
The war between Russia and Ukraine has become more complex in the wake of the past weekend, which found Yevgeny Prigozhin marching his troops toward Moscow, and President Vladimir Putin finding a safe haven for Prigozhin in Belarus. The conventional wisdom among politicians and pundits is that this is an opportunity for Ukraine and its Western allies to increase the pressure on Russia. Former U.S. ambassador to Russia Michael McFaul, for example, favors “better and more weapons and better and more sanctions as fast as possible,” believing that Putin is more likely to “negotiate an end to this war if he is losing on the battlefield.” The problem, however, is that the war remains unwinnable; neither side has the ability to achieve a decisive victory.
The war between Ukraine and Russia has taken a surprising turn when Prigozhin and his group of mercenaries revolted against Putin and marched towards Moscow. They were stopped by a deal mediated by Lukashenko who offered them asylum in Belarus. This event has raised many questions about the future of the war and the region.
Le mystère de la guerre d’Ukraine échappe encore à son Jules César. Pourtant, de plus en plus de détails cruciaux passent les barrages. Poutine montre ses cartes, Loukachenko divulgue des documents, Zelensky baratine et raconte… Quand la guerre a éclaté, les États-Unis venaient de finaliser leur grand exploit : la consolidation de leur pouvoir sur l’ensemble du monde civilisé. Personne dans l’histoire ne pourrait prétendre à une telle prouesse ; ni l’Empire romain d’autrefois, ni l’Empire britannique, ni Hitler ni Staline ; mais les Yanks ont réussi. Leurs agents choisis et leurs mandataires dirigeaient tous les États importants : l’Angleterre et la France, l’Allemagne et le Japon étaient tous gouvernés par des agents américains. L’Allemagne et le Japon peuvent encore être occupés par l’armée américaine, mais même si la France n’a pas de troupes américaines, elle est toujours dirigée par un agent américain. Le mandataire américain de la Suède a récemment accepté d’abandonner sa précieuse et profitable neutralité. La Finlande a renoncé à l’approvisionnement inépuisable en gaz et en bois bon marché de la Russie pour devenir un pion, au cœur de la nature sauvage du grand Nord. Ces agents américains allaient pouvoir infliger d’horribles souffrances à leurs sujets ; ils allaient détruire des industries, amener la famine et des épidémies sur leurs nations, juste pour suivre la baguette magique entre les mains de Washington. Aucun pays n’est loin d’une base militaire américaine : oui, ils contrôlent le monde.
On the evening of Friday, June 23, Wagner Group founder Yevgeny Prigozhin effectively broke ties with Moscow and initiated a mutiny against the Russian military, successfully occupying Rostov. Russian President Vladimir Putin condemned Prigozhin’s actions in an address to the nation as Russian authorities secured Moscow and reportedly engaged Wagner forces around Rostov. At the time of writing on the afternoon of Saturday, June 24, Prigozhin appears to have accepted a pause in further escalation, stating that Wagner forces will return to base. Today’s special edition of the Russian War Report provides an overview of the last thirty-six hours, including details on how Prigozhin’s rhetoric escalated into open conflict, open-source analysis of the latest footage, and a review of some of the competing narratives on Telegram and across the Russian information ecosystem.