Rusia

Russia Is Massing Troops on the Ukrainian and Polish Borders and the US Is Unsure What This Means

Admit nothing, deny everything, blame NATO and the West. That seems to be the Russian playbook under Vladimir Putin. The Russians have been massing troops on the Ukrainian border since spring. Many troops still remain in the region. Now, Russia is reinforcing them covertly as many experts believe that Moscow may be planning on making another move into Ukraine.

Russia and Belarus are also conducting large-scale exercises on the border with Poland as Moscow continues to act increasingly more aggressively in the region.

UK–Ukraine Security Cooperation

The UK has a crucial role to play in building up Ukraine’s military capacity, developing NATO coordination in the area and helping to deter Russian aggression.

In June 2021, British destroyer HMS Defender conducted a freedom of navigation operation in the Black Sea, close to Russian-occupied Crimea. A Russian patrol vessel fired warning shots at HMS Defender, which was shadowed by Russian naval and air assets. The British operation was a signal of solidarity to Ukraine which has put a spotlight on the UK’s involvement in the Black Sea and the emerging UK–Ukraine strategic defence partnership. The UK and Ukraine have recently signed the Political, Free Trade and Strategic Partnership Agreement, engaged in a rigorous defence dialogue and forged a cooperation agenda in the defence industry. The UK has stepped up its support to Ukraine to help it resist Russia’s hybrid pressures.

Belarus: The Next Crimea?

Despite persistent rumours, Russia remains highly unlikely to attempt to annex Belarus.

Rumours of a Russian takeover of Belarus have been around ever since Russia and Belarus signed the Union State Treaty in 1999. After Russia’s 2014 annexation of Crimea demonstrated that it was willing to act on its – up to that point purely rhetorical – commitment to the protection of its ‘compatriots’, pundits have argued that Belarus, home to large scores of Russian speakers, may well constitute the ‘next Crimea’. The nationwide protests against Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko that broke out around the fraudulent August 2020 presidential elections gave new impetus to these rumours: commentators argued that Russia might use the instability caused by the protests as an excuse to intervene in Belarus to pacify the country or some of its regions.

A Risky Role for Russian Peacekeepers in Nagorno-Karabakh

When Russian peacekeepers arrived in Nagorno-Karabakh as part of a ceasefire deal between Azerbaijan and Armenian, they found it empty, blanketed in a thick November fog. After 44 days of brutal war, most [people] had fled, not believing the fighting was over. A year later, the region’s main city of Stepanakert is no longer a ghost town. Most of its residents have returned, followed by thousands of Armenians displaced from territories won over by Azerbaijani forces in the conflict. The scars of war are everywhere — damaged buildings, craters caused by missiles, and photos of the dead and missing hung for passers-by — but elders gossip on city stoops while children are playing in the streets once again. That renewed sense of security is largely thanks to the Russian presence there.

SDF separatist forces between Turkey and Russia

On the evening of Tuesday 9 November, Turkish warplanes targeted separatist elements of the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) in the Syrian city of Qamishli. The drone attack is not the first of its kind in the city, as it was preceded by similar attacks in the city and Ain Al-Arab (Kobani) before it.

Rusia intenționează să preia puterea. „Susține infrastructura României o operațiune militară în Marea Neagră?”

Odată cu anexarea Peninsulei Crimeea de către Rusia în luna martie a anului 2014, Marea Neagră a devenit ținta unor tensiuni militare care au ajuns în unele cazuri inclusiv la confruntare. Demersul Rusiei nu a făcut altceva decât să îi ofere acesteia „un avantaj geostrategic clar – transformarea rapidă a peninsulei într-un bastion al forţelor navale şi aeriene”, a transmis șeful Statului Major al Apărării, Daniel Petrescu. Prezintă România, însă, infrastructura de care are nevoie în cazul în care se va impune o intervenție de urgență a forțelor aliate?

Russia Establishes Its Modus Operandi In Bosnia and Herzegovina – Analysis

The latest session of the UN Security Council only reaffirmed once again the crisis caused in Bosnia and Herzegovina by the actions of the Serb Member of the BiH Presidency Milorad Dodik (SNSD) with the assistance of the Russian Federation. At the same time, no concrete solutions and conclusions were offered nor attempts made to prevent separatist actions aimed to annul the Dayton[2] peace agreement and destroy the state of Bosnia and Herzegovina. There is a silent generally accepted opinion that “an armed conflict of low intensity is possible in BiH”, which is an indication that the strongest global powers have already developed their military plans as well. Once again, aconflict in BiH would be an international conflict- this time with the assistance of NATO and the Russian Federation. In fact, the prolongation of introduction of concrete measures that would provide for political elimination and criminal processing of Milorad Dodik and several of his “executors” is a proof of the seriousness of the situation. Bosnia and Herzegovina could become a new hotspot, which could endanger the security of entire Europe.

Turkey: Drifting Further into Russian Orbit

Sanctions are mandated by law for “any entity that does significant business with the Russian military or intelligence sectors” — Office of the U.S. Senate Foreign Relations Chair Robert Menendez, Daily Sabah, September 28, 2021.

“Any new purchases by Turkey must mean new sanctions.” — U.S. Senate Foreign Relations Committee, referring to a December 2020 U.S. decision to impose CAATSA (Countering America’s Adversaries Through Sanctions Act) on Turkey for its acquisition of the S-400 missile system, Twitter, September 28, 2021.

Triple Threat? Russia Halts Coal Exports To Ukraine, Cancels Power Auction Amid Gas Crisis

For months, critics have accused Russia of withholding additional natural-gas shipments to Europe via Ukraine in order to pressure Brussels to fast-track its new Baltic Sea export pipeline, Nord Stream 2.

Once it receives final approvals, the pipeline to Germany will enable Russia to reroute gas exports to Europe around Ukraine, depriving the cash-strapped country of billions of dollars a year in transit fees.

Ukraine’s complicated path to NATO membership

Amid numerous discussions about the future of Ukraine – a country that has been unable to form a single nation in 30 years of independence, and is torn apart by interethnic, linguistic and economic contradictions, Europe should ask itself just what Ukraine really means to it. And the answer will be the same – a buffer zone, because this clearly reflects Ukraine’s geopolitical role in relations with NATO and the EU. The Alliance needs Ukraine as a buffer zone, and even not all of it at that.