Rusia

For around two and a half years since the start of the Russian aggression against Ukraine, many analysts have predicted an inevitable economic crisis that sooner or later would hit Russia. However, by early 2024, these forecasts had proved wrong. The war with the neighboring country elevated the government military spending; the wave of emigration resulted in labor shortages and therefore pushed wages higher; the capital controls locked money inside the country and thus increased domestic demand. In addition to all this, Russian exports have not collapsed even despite the European and American energy embargo and the oil price cap,[1] remaining more or less at their 2021 levels after an extraordinary surge in 2022. In 2023, the Russian economy grew by 3.6 percent,[2] the ruble-to-dollar exchange rate was just 15 percent lower than before the attack on Ukraine (which is, I would say, much less than the accumulated inflation for both 2022 and 2023),[3] and the real wages shot up by 8.5 percent while the inflation was accelerating, but still “remained under control” at 7.42 percent.[4]

FSB Lieutenant General Vladislav Menshchikov heads the FSB’s First Service (counterintelligence), which cannot boast of a large number of spies caught, but has recently found itself at the center of scandals due to the fact that it arrests foreign journalists under the guise of spies to replenish the exchange fund (it is the First Service that is behind the criminal prosecution of The Wall Street Journal journalist Evan Gershkovich). As The Insider has found out, the high-ranking security officer is involved in corruption schemes around a Russian defense company, and registers expensive property and business in the names of his relatives.

Russia has conducted a prisoner exchange with the United States and Germany. According to The Insider, political prisoners Ilya Yashin, Vladimir Kara-Murza, Alsu Kurmasheva, Andrei Pivovarov, Oleg Orlov, Alexandra Skochilenko, Liliya Chanysheva, Ksenia Fadeeva, Evan Gershkovich, Rico Krieger, Kevin Leake, Demuri Voronin, Vadim Ostanin, Patrick Schoebel, Paul Whelan and Herman Moyzhes have been released. In exchange, Russia received FSB killer Vadim Krasikov, spies and swindlers.

Le 16 juillet, le ministre russe des Affaires étrangères Sergueï Lavrov a assisté à une réunion du Conseil de sécurité de l’ONU, où il a parlé du projet américain d’utiliser l’Europe comme une sorte d’«escadron suicide» contre la Russie. Lavrov a averti Washington DC de ne pas vivre dans l’illusion que cela fonctionnerait et qu’il s’agit d’une «idée fausse extrêmement dangereuse». Il a également averti l’Union européenne qu’elle «doit prendre conscience du rôle suicidaire qu’elle est destinée à jouer».

In today’s summary:

• “Critical” situation for the Armed Forces of Ukraine north of Avdiivka – some units had to fight out of the encirclement
• Russian troops are conducting massive mechanized assaults on the eastern face of the Ugledar salient
• In the Z-environment, they are indignant about the law adopted by the State Duma banning the use of gadgets in the war zone
• During Russian air raids on Ukraine, at least four Shahed flew to Romania
• Strikes on three Russian military airfields – Millerovo and Morozovsk in the Rostov region and Saki in Crimea
• BBC Russian Service and Mediazona – Over 61 thousand people died in the war on the Russian side
• Czech Republic launches new initiative to supply artillery ammunition to Ukraine in 2025
• The number of towed artillery pieces, self-propelled guns and MLRS has been significantly reduced in Russian warehouses

Exclusive: Col Gen Oleksandr Syrskyi weighs Ukraine’s recent setbacks, counter strikes and the changing face of Europe’s biggest war since 1945

Sitting on a stack of ammunition crates at a secret military base, Col Gen Oleksandr Syrskyi was tight-lipped about when Ukraine will receive a long-awaited delivery of F-16 fighter jets. The Dutch and other allies have said they will arrive soon. This week? Or maybe August? “I know. But I can’t tell you about it, unfortunately,” he said, with an apologetic grin, as gulls squawked nearby.