Reflectii

In his article, “The Unipolar Moment”1, which was based on a series of lectures delivered in Washington, D.C. in September 1990, Charles Krauthammer wrote that a new world order was emerging in which the United States would be the only superpower. In the second paragraph of the article, Krauthammer introduced three main theses being discussed in the US political science community at the time: (1) the rise of multipolarity (interestingly enough, he suggests a “diminished Soviet Union/Russia” as one future pole, thus anticipating the collapse of the Soviet Union), (2) weakened consensus on foreign policy within the US, and (3) a diminishing of the threat of war in the post-Soviet era. Krauthammer promptly dismissed these arguments as erroneous, and instead spoke of the coming triumph of a unipolar world under the undisputed dominance of the US and its Western allies. Krauthammer did, however, immediately make one reservation: “No doubt, multipolarity will come in time. In perhaps another generation or so there will be great powers coequal with the United States and the world will, in structure, resemble the pre-World War I era.”

The world is presently in the midst of an epochal transition from unipolarity to multipolarity that is expected to characterize the foreseeable decades of the 21st century, if not its entirety. There are multiple dimensions to this paradigm-shifting process, which can leave observers completely overwhelmed when trying to make sense of it all, and most analysts tend to focus just on one or a couple factors while leaving out the rest of the bigger picture. This isn’t through any deliberate fault of their own, but rather due to their expert specialization in certain fields and the attendant time commitments that this typically entails, both of which largely hold them back from researching other related trends and grasping a comprehensive sense of everything else that’s happening.

The international system and the world order are going through deep turmoil today

There is full agreement in science that the modern international order and the modern system of international relations developed after the end of the Thirty Years War (1618-1648) and the conclusion of the Westphalia Treaty (1648).

The senseless slaughter of World War I began with the murder of a single man, a Crown Prince of a European empire whose name no one was particularly familiar with at the time. Archduke Franz Ferdinand Carl Ludwig Joseph Maria was the presumptive heir to the Austrian-Hungarian empire in June of 1914.

A long time back I was visiting some remote villages where the murder of a youth who had raised his voice against corruption of a powerful local contractor and politician had attracted a lot of attention. There was an undercurrent of simmering anger among people but no one was willing to discuss many details openly, much less make any accusations.

De-dollarization now looks inevitable and threatens to become a national security concern, according to International Crisis Group co-chair Frank Giustra.

A Business Insider report — “De-dollarization is no longer a matter of if, but when — and is a national security concern, says International Crisis Group cochair”, May 3, 2023, — said:

« Le dollar c’est notre monnaie et votre problème. » (John Connelly, secrétaire d’État à l’Économie)

« Quand tout est troublé, que l’avenir est imprévisible et inquiétant, la « relique barbare », moquée par lord Keynes, retrouve l’attrait qu’elle a toujours eu en période de dangers. L’or redevient l’ancre de la sécurité. » (Eric le Boucher, Les Échos, janvier 2010)