Bottom Line Up Front:
The April agreement among major oil producers to reduce global oil production has failed to stabilize world oil prices.
Market stability will depend heavily on the abatement of the COVID-19 pandemic.
On Wednesday, Turkish and Russian forces conducted their fourth joint patrol of the Latakia-Aleppo international “M4” highway, following a confrontation two days earlier which saw Turkish military police shoot tear gas at crowds of Syrian civilians and fighters who gathered to protest the patrols in what they called a “sit-in for dignity.”
The Middle East is facing an unexpected turning point. The region will not look the same after COVID-19 as it did before it. Prior to the outbreak, the Middle East had managed to normalize the geostrategic implications of the Arab Spring. Tunisia transitioned to a fully functioning democracy, Egypt ended up with a strongman, Syria became a catastrophe, Jordan and Morocco enacted some reforms, while Algeria and Sudan are still struggling with transitions and Lebanon stands on the brink of economic collapse.
Clashes between rival Libyan forces for control of the capital escalated Wednesday as militias allied with the U.N.-supported government launched an offensive against a military base held by their rivals, officials said.
On the morning of February 22, the corpse of a young Syrian man, Said Obeid, was found alongside two dead Libyan men on the outskirts of the city of Tarhuna, which is under the control of Libyan National Army (LNA), led by General Khalifa Haftar.
During the most recent military escalation by Syrian government forces and their allied militias in northwest Syria, which led to the displacement of more than one million people, media outlets—mostly opposition-leaning—reported that the Kurdish-dominated Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) fought alongside the Syrian government forces. The SDF, however, has denied these claims.
Although the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights (SOHR) reported that 151 Turkey-backed militants – fighting in the ranks of Tripoli-based Government of National Accord (GNA) have been killed since the beginning of this year, the LNA announced Thursday that the number of Syrian mercenaries who fell over the previous 72 hours is 103.
The father of the Manchester Arena terrorists, who was arrested in Libya following the bombing which killed 22 people, is receiving medical aid in Istanbul.
Since the death of General Soleimani in Baghdad on January 2nd as a result of a Drone Strike at the Baghdad International Airport, there has been great consternation that the Trump Administration would take such a bold step and fear that Iran will retaliate for this move.
Turkish President Erdogan is currently in a precarious situation. Turkey suffered in Syria severe military setbacks with dozens of killed. Yesterday’s agreement with Russia’s President Putin foresees a withdrawal of the Islamists supported by Turkey from a larger area to the south and east of Idlib. More than 30 Turkish soldiers died in Libya in the last few days. EU sanctions against two Turkish citizens because of the natural gas drilling off Cyprus are damaging to Erdogan’s reputation.