Middle East Overview: February 2026

Israel intensified its attacks on Gaza and Lebanon, deadly state repression across Iran halts protests, and violence escalated between state forces and the SDF in northern Syria.

Gaza: Violence escalates amid the US launch of phase 2 of the Gaza peace plan

Violence intensified in Gaza in January, with the highest number of Israeli attacks since the current ceasefire began on 10 October. At least 160 Palestinians were killed during the month — double the previous month’s toll — as Israeli forces continued to use lethal force against civilians approaching the Yellow Line or collecting firewood, while also targeting militants attempting to cross into Israeli-controlled areas or plant explosive devices. Israel also carried out repeated strikes across Hamas-controlled areas in response to incidents in Rafah, including two attempted attacks on Israeli troops by Hamas gunmen emerging from tunnels, a failed missile launch, and militant activity near the Yellow Line. On 31 January, Israel carried out its deadliest attack wave of the month, killing at least 32 Palestinians, including civilians, militants, and police officers.1

A Third Temple In Jerusalem: Why Three Faiths – And The World – Are On Edge

The first Friday Ramadan prayers at Al-Aqsa since the Israel-Hamas ceasefire have revived the Third Temple debate. Here’s why Jerusalem’s Temple Mount keeps the world on edge.

An image plastered across dailies this Saturday morning showed thousands of Muslim devotees offering their prayers on the first Friday of Ramadan at the Al Aqsa Mosque on Jerusalem’s Temple Mount. This was the first Ramadan prayers offered at the mosque since the fragile ceasefire deal was signed between Israel and Hamas in October 2025. The images got me thinking. About the significance of the Temple Mount and how many of us truly see it as the political and religious tinderbox that it is.

Trump splits the West into five parts

In world politics, very rapid and dynamic processes are taking place. This is largely due to Trump’s policy, which brought to the system of international relations a high level of turbulence, unpredictability and radicalness, and events are developing rapidly.

‘Jordan is next’: West Bank annexation signals ‘silent transfer’

Former officials and strategists warn that Israel’s new land registry laws and military pressure in the occupied West Bank are the final prelude to the ‘alternative homeland’ scenario.

For decades, the “alternative homeland” – the notion that Jordan should become the Palestinian state – was dismissed in Amman’s diplomatic circles as a distant nightmare or a conspiracy theory.

Libye : l’ONU décrit une machine d’exploitation des migrants

« J’aurais préféré mourir ». Détenue pendant plus de six semaines dans une maison de traite à Tobrouk, dans l’est de la Libye, une femme érythréenne raconte avoir été violée à plusieurs reprises, avant d’être libérée après le paiement d’une rançon par sa famille.

Son témoignage figure parmi près d’une centaine de récits recueillis par l’ONU, qui décrivent un système d’exploitation d’une brutalité persistante contre migrants, réfugiés et demandeurs d’asile dans le pays.

China Now Finds Itself in al-Qaeda’s Crosshairs

Could China replace the United States atop the target list of transnational jihadist groups like al-Qaeda? A recent statement released by Sheikh Saad bin Atef al Awlaqi, the emir of al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula, directly threatened China, labeling its government as a “pagan, infidel” enemy whose actions against Uyghur Muslims justify future attacks. The statement marks a clear escalation in al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula’s anti-China rhetoric. But will it lead to a shift in operational goals?

Iran cites ‘good progress’ in nuclear talks with US

Iran’s foreign minister said Tuesday that “good progress” had been made in indirect nuclear talks with the United States in Geneva, describing broad agreement on guiding principles for a potential deal even as tensions between the two countries remained high.

The negotiations, mediated by Oman, took place in Switzerland against a backdrop of military maneuvers by both sides in the Persian Gulf.

The Mass Escape of ISIS Detainees Is a Warning Against U.S. Withdrawal From Syria

Serious concerns are emerging over the ability of the Syrian government to maintain security in the northeast of the country following its recent offensive against the Kurdish-led, U.S.-allied Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF).

A Syrian government spokesman admitted on February 17 that since the end of January, thousands of detainees had absconded from the al-Hol detention camp previously run by the SDF. “Families escaped while we were present because the camp is large and the smuggling routes are very varied,” said Fadi al-Qassem.