At a moment the West – especially the US and UK – are still mulling whether to allow Ukraine forces to attack Russian territory using NATO-provided long-range missiles, President Vladimir Putin has just issued a hugely significant statement regarding his country’s nuclear doctrine.
Putin on Wednesday very clearly lowered the threshold regarding Russian strategic forces’ use of nukes. He in a televised address to Russia’s Security Council said nuclear doctrine has been effectively revised in light of the “emergence of new sources of military threats and risks for Russia and our allies.” This is clearly in response to the latest series of escalated cross-border attacks from Ukraine deep into Russian territory. Some of these have threatened to hit Moscow.
He went on to describe that in the event Western powers assist another nation in a major attack on Russian soil, those same Western powers will also be held responsible. This can trigger Russian nuclear launch, according to the new doctrine. This lowers the bar for what can be considered an ‘existential threat’ against the Russian homeland and its population.
Putin laid out, according to a translation: “The updated version of the document proposes that aggression against Russia by any non-nuclear-weapon state, but with the participation or support of a nuclear-weapon state, should be considered as a joint attack on the Russian Federation.”
While not stating that this would automatically greenlight the ability of Russia to respond with nuclear weapons, he did assert that the threshold for their use would be met based on “reliable information about a massive launch of aerospace attack means and their crossing of our State border.”
He then included defense of Belarus as being part of the change: “We reserve the right to use nuclear weapons in the event of aggression against Russia and Belarus as a member of the Union State,” Putin said.
The below is a paraphrase of Putin’s words and some further details of the changes by state-run RT:
Moscow would also “consider” resorting to a nuclear response if it gets “reliable information” about a “massive” missile or air strike launched by another state against Russia, or its closest ally, Belarus, according to Putin. The weapons used in an enemy’s potential strike could include anything from ballistic or cruise missiles to strategic aircraft and drones, he stated.The timing of this dramatic and serious alteration in nuclear policy is without doubt aimed at Zelensky’s visit to the United States, where he is presenting Ukraine’s ‘victory plan’ separately to President Biden, VP Harris, as well as Donald Trump.
Zelensky has stressed that a key component of this plan is to have the West lift all restrictions of use of long-range weapons. Ukraine’s long-range cross border attacks have already been somewhat devastating, given dozens of oil and gas depots, airfield, and ammo storage sites have been hit over several months. Zelensky wants to inflict greater pain on Russia directly, in hopes at building more leverage for favorable settlement to the war.
Biden days ago responded that “no” – nothing has yet changed regarding Washington’s policy on all of this. Putin’s Wednesday words are timed to keep up the pressure on the US, and to ensure there’s no new greenlight given for Kiev’s use of things like the Army Tactical Missile System (ATACMS) or British Storm Shadows.
⚡️PUTIN: WE RESERVE THE RIGHT TO USE NUCLEAR WEAPONS IN CASE OF AGGRESSION AGAINST RUSSIA AND BELARUS⚡️
Russian President Vladimir Putin proposed significant updates to Russia’s nuclear strategy, citing the rapidly evolving global military-political situation. These changes… pic.twitter.com/KSLqyAOEp0
— Russian Market (@runews) September 25, 2024Of course, Putin’s prior warning earlier this month should have been enough to dissuade saner minds in the West. He said before that “This would in a significant way change the very nature of the conflict.” At the time he spelled out that long-range missile strikes on Russia “would mean that NATO countries, the US, European countries, are at war with Russia.”
Even should Biden resist the drive to escalate further in the face of Putin’s fresh nuclear warnings, it remains to be seen what the next administration will do, whoever occupies the White House. Trump in particular has been the only candidate to strongly voice that the US must prioritize peace negotiations to urgently end the war. Harris is expected to continue Biden’s policies, which have resulted in an ongoing escalation slide.