- In today’s summary:
- The Armed Forces of Ukraine managed to stabilize the situation in the Kharkiv region, but it is still not possible to do this in the Donbass
- Russian troops are expanding the zone of control north and south of Chasiv Yar in the Bakhmut direction
- Ukrainian forces pushed the enemy in the urban area of Vovchansk, the northern part of the city was turned into ruins
- Massive combined strikes on Ukraine – the targets were energy facilities and military airfields
- The first effective use of Western weapons on the territory of the Russian Federation – the S-300 / S-400 air defense system was hit near Belgorod
- Vladimir Putin spoke about the fantastic ratio of losses in the war – the Russian Armed Forces are losing “five times less” people
- French President Emmanuel Macron announced the transfer of Mirage 2000-5 fighters to the Armed Forces of Ukraine
- The new military aid package from the United States includes ammunition for air defense and HIMARS, howitzers, and M113 armored personnel carriers
- The situation at the front
- In one of the reviews, Ukrainian military observer Konstantin Mashovets admitted that the Armed Forces of Ukraine, unlike the Kharkiv direction, failed to completely stop the Russian advance in the eastern operational zone. In the north of the Avdiivka operational area near Ocheretyne, the situation remains threatening: in particular, the Russians engaged in battles for the village of Sokol. Impressive footage of these battles is published on social networks, for example, the “meeting” between a Russian BTR-82A with a landing party and a Ukrainian Bradley infantry fighting vehicle on the same road. In the same area, as the Ukrainian military writes (1, 2), the RF Armed Forces do not stop trying to reach the Pokrovsk-Konstantinovka highway.
West of Avdiivka, Russian forces managed to reach Karlivka (confirmed by DeepState geolocation) and proceed to encircle Yasnobrodovka. In the area of Maryinka, the RF Armed Forces completely occupied the village of Pobeda, and according to the as-yet-unconfirmed statement of the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation, also Paraskoviivka. DeepState writes about Russian attacks along the Vuhledar-Konstantinovka highway on the eastern flank of the Vuhledar salient.
According to Mashovets, Russian forces are preparing to attack Vuhledar from the south, while trying to restore the situation on the Vremevsky salient that existed before the Ukrainian counteroffensive in the summer of 2023. According to him, the Russians managed to oust the Armed Forces of Ukraine from Staromayorskoye, and the Z-channel “Mode B”, which is related to the Vostok grouping of the RF Armed Forces operating in this direction, reports on successes in Urozhaynoye.
An equally dangerous situation is developing in Chasiv Yar and its environs. According to BILD columnist Julian Röpke, Russian troops occupied Kalynivka north of the city and crossed the Seversky Donets-Donbas canal there. South of the city, according to Mashovets, the RF Armed Forces are also expanding the zone of control, advancing south of the Novy microdistrict. A Russian serviceman, the author of the Timny channel, claims that the Russians are able to repel counterattacks on both flanks of the offensive.
Meanwhile, the defenders of the city from the Chornyi Lebid UAV unit are bombing the pipeline with “skids” in order to prevent the Russians from seeping through it to the Ukrainian rear, as was already the case near Avdiivka.
Things are somewhat better for the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the Kharkiv direction, where it is possible not only to hold positions, but also to counterattack: according to Röpke, they managed to significantly press the Russians in the urban area of Vovchansk. At the same time, the northern part of the city has been turned into ruins due to Russian shelling, DeepState shows, citing satellite imagery.
Certain responsibility for the destruction of Vovchansk lies with the Biden administration – the Washington Post writes that it took the White House 17 days to authorize the use of American weapons in the Belgorod region near the border with Kharkiv, after Ukraine turned to the United States with a corresponding request in connection with the start of an offensive in the area. However, often the Armed Forces of Ukraine cope without American weapons: for example, near the border with the neighboring Sumy region, a Russian convoy was destroyed with the help of drones.
The Insider has released a detailed analysis of the preliminary results of the Kharkiv operation of the RF Armed Forces. Experts agree that the capture of Kharkiv is out of the question in the near future, and even Russian “military correspondents” warn that the Armed Forces of Ukraine are quite capable of pushing the Russian army back to the border.
Ukrainian diplomacy, meanwhile, promises to fight for the removal of the remaining restrictions on the use of Western weapons on the territory of Russia. It is worth recalling that, in particular, the ban on strikes with long-range ATACMS missiles has not yet been lifted.
The publication “Vyorstka” found hundreds of deserters and “refuseniks” among the mobilized, who are held in military units throughout Russia, and then sent back to the front, where they are transferred to assault detachments as punishment for leaving units and refusing to participate in hostilities. By January 2024, at least 800 people were on the list of mobilized people who fled the war.
Mutual shelling and sabotage
On the night of June 1, Russian troops launched a massive missile and drone strike on Ukraine. The Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reported the destruction of 35 out of 53 missiles and 46 out of 47 Shahed-type drones. Energy infrastructure facilities in five regions, including two thermal power plants and two hydroelectric power plants, were hit. The Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation justified the strike by the fact that it was inflicted on energy facilities “ensuring the operation of enterprises of the military-industrial complex.”
Ukrainian air defense had to repel drone strikes and combined missile-drone raids also on the night of June 2, 4, 5, 6 and 7. During the latter, an industrial facility in the Kyiv region was damaged – according to Russian sources, we are talking about an oil depot.
Civilian casualties as a result of Russian attacks were reported by the authorities of Odesa, Poltava, Kharkiv (1, 2), Dnipropetrovsk (1, 2, 3) and Donetsk (1, 2) regions. It is possible to note a slight decrease in the frequency of strikes on Kharkiv and the region, but it is still difficult to say how much this is due to the lifting of the ban on strikes with Western weapons on the Russian border and whether this trend will be long-term.
Among the significant strikes on Ukrainian military facilities are the shelling of the Starokonstantinov airfield in the Khmelnytskyi region, as well as Kanatovo and Dolgintsevo in the Dnipropetrovsk region. In the first two, according to satellite images, airfield infrastructure facilities were damaged, while in Dolgintsevo, as a result of the strike of loitering ammunition “Lancet”, a Su-25 attack aircraft was damaged (but, most likely, not destroyed). In addition, the RF Armed Forces struck at another crossing in the Kharkiv region and at engineering equipment and a warehouse of building materials in the Zaporozhye region.
User John Ridge has calculated that as of June 2, 2074 subsonic cruise missiles, 169 supersonic cruise missiles, 5 hypersonic cruise missiles, 738 ballistic missiles, 335 tactical missiles and 5585 Shahed-type drones have been launched on the territory of Ukraine since August 2022. The New York Times, in turn, estimated the number of destroyed and damaged buildings in Ukraine at 210 thousand according to satellite data. These include sites protected by the Geneva Conventions, including 106 hospitals, 109 churches and 708 schools.
Also during the week, there were again “abnormal descents” of Russian glide bombs on the Belgorod region (1, 2, 3). According to The Insider, in total, at least 88 aviation ammunition “abnormally” descended on the region in 2024, of which 85 are various modifications of the FAB.
The “loudest” blow of the Armed Forces of Ukraine over the past week was, probably, the first effective use of Western weapons, namely the HIMARS MLRS, on the territory of Russia. The position area of the S-300/400 air defense system near the village of Kiselevo near Belgorod was hit. As a result, two 5P85SM2-01 launchers and a BAZ-69092 tractor were destroyed.
In addition, Ukrainian forces carried out strikes this week on:
- Crimea, where a tugboat built in 1984 was sunk and two radars were hit;
- Belgorod region, where they hit the location of the Russian military, police cars and an oil depot;
- Kursk region, where a diesel locomotive and an electrical substation were hit by drones;
- Rostov Region, where the Novoshakhtinsky Oil Refinery was affected;
- Krasnodar Territory, where the blow also fell on the power substation;
- Soledar in the occupied part of the Donetsk region, where the location of the Russian 200th Motorized Rifle Brigade was hit;
- Lugansk, where the long-known base of the RF Armed Forces was hit, the entrance of a five-story building also collapsed there, as a result of which four people were killed and more than 50 were injured.
At the same time, Ukrainian sources note (1, 2) that as fragments of the ATACMS missile that hit the house, the Russian media showed details of the S-300 missiles.
In addition to this incident, the authorities of the Belgorod region (1, 2, 3, 4), as well as the Russian-appointed occupation administrations of the Kherson and Zaporizhzhia regions, reported on the injured civilians.
In total, according to data collected by CIT volunteers, in May, compared to April, due to the start of the Russian offensive in the Kharkiv region, the number of dead civilians in Russia and Ukraine (including in the occupied territories) increased by more than a quarter (from 220 to 282), and the number of victims by almost a third (from 1071 to 1386).
Loss
Analyst Naalsio has updated the calculations of losses of Russian and Ukrainian equipment from open sources. In the Avdiivka operational area, according to him, the confirmed losses of equipment of the RF Armed Forces from May 24 to May 31 amounted to 35 units, the Armed Forces of Ukraine – 6 units. In the Krynka area on the left bank of the Dnipro River, during the same period, one lost unit of Russian equipment and not a single Ukrainian one was recorded.
Naalsio also updated the calculations of visually confirmed losses of military equipment in the Kharkiv direction for the week. In total, the RF Armed Forces lost at least 29 units of equipment (including 25 destroyed), the Armed Forces of Ukraine – 6 units (all destroyed).
A contract soldier of the RF Armed Forces told ASTRA about the losses during the offensive on Volchansk. According to him, they were sent to the city only with bulletproof vests and machine guns, as a result, only 12 out of 100 people remained in the ranks in his company (most of them escaped with injuries).
During the war, the Russians executed at least 61 Ukrainian prisoners of war, Prosecutor General of Ukraine Andriy Kostin said. He also said that 2200 Ukrainians who were in captivity were recognized as victims. More than 500 of them testified to the use of physical violence against them during interrogations, in particular, torture with electric shocks.
The Insider has published a selection of photos of Ukrainians who returned from captivity with obvious signs of physical exhaustion.
Vladimir Putin, during a meeting with representatives of international news agencies at the forum in St. Petersburg, spoke about the losses on the Russian and Ukrainian sides. According to the BBC Russian Service, Putin claims without evidence that Russian losses are “several times less than on the Ukrainian side.” The President of the Russian Federation named from memory the number of Russian soldiers in Ukrainian captivity – 1348 people and the Ukrainian military in Russian captivity – 6465 people.
The ratio of irretrievable losses (that is, dead Russian and Ukrainian soldiers), according to Putin, is “about the same” – “about one to five.” He estimated the “sanitary and irretrievable losses” of the Armed Forces of Ukraine for the month at “about 50 thousand.”
Weapons and military equipment
Potentially the most significant of the arms deliveries to Ukraine announced this week was the promise of French President Emmanuel Macron to transfer Mirage 2000-5 fighters to Kyiv. In addition, France plans to train and arm a brigade of 4,5 thousand servicemen of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
RUSI analyst Justin Bronk believes that the Mirage 2000-5 is vulnerable to a double threat: Russian air defense systems and R-37M air-to-air missiles. Ukrainian military expert Oleksandr Kovalenko, in turn, notes in a comment to The Insider that the Mirage may have problems with maintenance and spare parts due to their small number, but in many characteristics they are superior to the F-16.
In parallel, the Franco-German concern KNDS, which produces Caesar self-propelled guns, announced the creation of a subsidiary in Ukraine. As part of its activities, it is planned to create a self-propelled gun service center, organize 3D printing of spare parts and the production of 155-mm artillery ammunition.
In Germany, the contract for the production of artillery rounds has been expanded, under which additional orders can be placed for both the Bundeswehr and the Armed Forces of Ukraine. In addition, the country resumed production of PzH 2000 self-propelled guns, and Hensoldt announced that it would manufacture missile defense systems for Ukrainian helicopters.
The United States has announced a new package of military assistance to Ukraine under the PDA. In addition to ammunition for air defense and HIMARS, the presence of additional howitzers, mortars and M-113 armored personnel carriers in the package is noteworthy.
Italy plans to transfer another SAMP/T air defense system to Ukraine, the Netherlands is preparing to produce Swedish CV90 infantry fighting vehicles for the Armed Forces of Ukraine, and the UK and Latvia have opened a competition for commercial proposals for the production of cheap FPV drones. Also in Ukraine, they showed the Cheetah ZSU- the Dutch version of the German Gepard installation, the purchase of which from Jordan became known last year.
Russia has launched serial production of the Granat-4 UAV, one of which carried out target designation to destroy the M1 Abrams tank, plans to produce more than 8000 light reconnaissance drones this year (excluding Orlans and Zala), and also began to equip Kh-101 missiles with a cluster warhead. In addition, the latest Russian wheeled self-propelled gun “Malva” lit up in the Belgorod region, which was its first documented appearance at the front.
The Ukrainian and Russian military continue to exercise in “barbecue construction”. The Armed Forces of Ukraine showed Dutch YPR-765 armored personnel carriers equipped with protective screens, which are used as “minibuses to Rabotino”. They are opposed by “motorcycle braziers” – motorcycles covered on all sides with anti-drone grilles (the innovation was criticized in some Z-channels). Also, Ukrainian volunteers equip Ukrainian-made Bogdana self-propelled guns with grilles, forced to often go close to the front for counter-battery fighting, exposing themselves to the strikes of Russian UAVs. The Russians, in turn, are adapting factory protective screens from the BTR-82A to “lure” tanks.
About the main events of the war in the reports for the week:
June 7: Macron promises Ukraine Mirage-2000 fighter jets, shelling of Luhansk with ATACMS missiles, “pro-fascist grandmothers” in the “LPR”. What is happening at the front
June 6: 180 tons of old blankets for Lieutenant Gontarenko, a large group of ships of the Russian Navy left the base in Novorossiysk. What is happening at the front
June 5: The Armed Forces of Ukraine were replenished with rangers, Ukraine is going to produce wooden Patriot air defense systems, the premature funeral of the Magyar. What is happening at the front
June 4: The Russian Armed Forces “dig in” north of Vovchansk, shooters with guns are put on Russian tanks to combat drones. What is happening at the front
June 3: A convoy with conscripts was “unwound” in the Kursk region, “motorcycle braziers” for the “road of fury” appeared near Rabotino. What is happening at the front
Previous weekly report (from May 25 to May 31, 2024): The ban on strikes with Western weapons on Russia has been partially lifted, the Kharkiv operation of the RF Armed Forces has stopped. What happened at the front this week