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HTS is a radical terrorist organization that is directly responsible for the deaths of tens of thousands of people in Syria in the past seven years. Although the organization liberated Syria from its brutal dictator Bashar al-Assad, we recommend that you never forget its origins and deeds along the way, which may suggest a new brutal dictatorship. Al-Julani and his designated ministers already stated that Syria will be a country of Sharia law. They even use the jihadist flag.

The Middle East has finally arrived at the grim reckoning long barreling toward it: a ruinous collapse of oil revenues that renders government deficits utterly unsustainable.

Among the wealthy Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) states, four are running persistent annual budget deficits that are eroding their sovereign wealth reserves and plunging their finances into terminal decline, condemning their economies to stagnation.

Key Takeaways

• Syria: The Syrian government and the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) agreed to extend their ceasefire in northeastern Syria for 15 days on January 24. The continued ceasefire will help ensure that the government offensive does not inflict lasting harm on US counter-Islamic State in Iraq and al Sham (ISIS) objectives in northeastern Syria because it will create stable conditions for Syrian government forces to deploy to and secure ISIS detention facilities. The ceasefire will also enable US forces to continue to transfer ISIS detainees from Syria.
• Iranian Nuclear Program: The Institute for Science and International Security reported on January 22 that Iran is encasing a newly built facility at Taleghan 2 at the Parchin Military Complex in a concrete “sarcophagus” to harden the facility against potential airstrikes. The Institute reported that the facility houses a cylindrical chamber that resembles a high explosive test chamber.
• Iranian Leadership: Anti-regime media claimed on January 24 that Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei has moved into an underground shelter in Tehran Province, according to two unspecified sources close to the regime. The sources added that Khamenei’s third son, Masoud, has assumed day-to-day oversight of the Supreme Leader’s office and is now the primary conduit for coordination with the government’s executive institutions.

Key Takeaways

Dissent Within the Iranian Regime: Some Iranian officials have continued to leak damning information about the regime’s brutal crackdown to Western media, which indicates that some regime personnel may oppose the regime’s crackdown. The leaks also undermine the regime’s ongoing information operation that seeks to portray the regime and Iranian security forces as victims of “terrorism” and conceal the regime’s use of lethal force.
Internet Access in Iran: The Iranian regime has not restored international internet access, and there continues to be an internal debate within the regime about restoring it. The debate primarily seems to be between regime factions that assess that restoring the internet could cause a resumption of protests and factions that assess that the economic toll of the internet shutdown could cause internal unrest.
Syrian government-SDF conflict: The extension of the Syrian government-Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) ceasefire is enabling the government to deliver humanitarian aid to SDF-controlled areas in northern Syria. The Syrian army established two humanitarian corridors in Kobani and Hasakah City. The Syrian government did not call on civilians in Kobani or Hasakah City to use the corridors to evacuate from these cities, which suggests that government forces do not plan to imminently launch an operation to advance into either city.

The US-backed, Kurdish-dominated Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) capitulated to the Syrian government in a ceasefire agreement on January 18.[1] The government compelled the SDF to agree after a combination of government operations and tribal uprisings caused the SDF to withdraw from nearly half of its territory and most of the heavily Arab areas.[2] The ceasefire agreement cedes all of Deir ez Zor and Raqqa provinces to the government, effective immediately.[3] Hasakah Province will integrate into the Syrian state over time.[4] The government will control the ISIS detention facilities and al Hol internally-displaced persons (IDP) camp, which holds many ISIS supporters.[5] The SDF will integrate its military forces into the Syrian Ministry of Defense as individuals — a major concession that SDF leaders have been refusing because it leaves Kurdish areas without a reliable defense force of their own.[6] Kobani will have a security force that is formed from the city’s residents.[7] This ceasefire represents a capitulation by the SDF, which has resisted these long-standing demands of the Syrian government.[8] This is a significant defeat for SDF moderates such as SDF commander Mazloum Abdi and civilian leader Ilham Ahmed, both of whom supported prior ceasefires in Aleppo but were thwarted by hardliners who were close to the PKK.