reflectiigeopolitice.ro

The ongoing protests in Iran mark the most serious domestic unrest that the Islamic Republic has faced. The protests could alter the character of the regime fundamentally or even topple it.

CTP-ISW currently assesses that the unprecedentedly brutal crackdown that the regime is conducting has broadly suppressed protest activity and may get the protests under control if no other factors intervene. The internet blackout, now extended to efforts to find and confiscate Starlink and other satellite communications dishes, makes assessing the current extent of protest activity difficult, but indirect indicators strongly suggest that more protests are taking place than CTP-ISW can document. The regime has responded to this protest wave with much more force and lethality than in any previous wave, indicating its fear that it can lose control of the situation. It remains unclear whether the regime will be able to sustain the current levels of oppression long enough to end this protest wave. CTP-ISW will not attempt to forecast the effects of possible US or other international action in support of the protesters at this time, since the nature and likelihood of such action remains extremely unclear. CTP-ISW has observed indicators that separatist militias are seeking to take advantage of the protest movement to position themselves for post-regime pushes for autonomy and independence, highlighting the importance of thoughtful and careful planning for post-regime scenarios.

Aujourd’hui, lors d’une réunion Zoom, j’ai entendu un général américain à la retraite plaider en faveur d’une guerre contre l’Iran… Il ne préconisait pas que Trump le fasse, mais il a présenté un résumé fascinant de la façon dont lui, et la plupart des Américains, perçoivent l’Iran comme une menace à éradiquer. Son principal grief est que l’Iran a tué des milliers d’Américains, notamment des militaires, et qu’il s’agit d’un État terroriste irrémédiablement perdu. Restez à l’écoute… Je vais vous démontrer à quel point cet homme se trompe.

As reports of Iraqi fighters in Iran circulate, flight patterns and eyewitness descriptions suggest an organized pipeline

Several Iraqi Shiite militias are involved in suppressing the Iranian protests, according to information obtained by The Media Line from multiple sources.

Lufthansa Group has announced its airlines will avoid Iranian and Iraqi airspace “until further notice” amid the escalating threats of a U.S. military strike from Donald Trump. The German company, which operates multiple airlines including Lufthansa, SWISS, Austrian Airlines, Brussels Airlines and Eurowings, also said it would avoid overnight flights to and from Tel Aviv’s Ben Gurion Airport due to the “current situation in the Middle East.” The pause on night flights will begin Thursday and run until Sunday, the German company said. The moves comes as Iran closed its airspace to all but a few international flights with special permission.

U.S. President Donald Trump’s administration has made good on its pledge to label three Middle Eastern branches of the Muslim Brotherhood as “terrorist” organizations, imposing sanctions on them and their members in a decision that could have implications for U.S. relationships with allies Qatar and Turkey.

Kata’ib Hezbollah leader al-Hamidawi vowed support for Iran against aggression, warning of severe consequences for instigators, while rejecting US demands to disarm.

The Hezbollah Brigades of Iraq (Kata’ib Hezbollah) expressed readiness to support the Islamic Republic of Iran against any form of hostility, according to a statement released by the group’s leadership.

As anti-regime protests spread across Iran for a 12th straight day, the Islamic Republic has reportedly turned to foreign militias for support, with two independent sources confirming that roughly 850 Hezbollah, Iraqi militia and Quds Force–linked fighters crossed into Iran to bolster the regime’s security forces.

Iranian authorities have unleashed a deadly crackdown on protesters across the country since 28 December 2025, marked by security forces’ unlawful use of force and firearms and mass arbitrary arrests, Amnesty International and Human Rights Watch said today.

Years ago, I was negotiating with Iranian officials for the release of American hostages held in Tehran. The talks were not going well.

At one point, my Iranian counterpart asked why Iran should ever make a deal with a country that constantly changes its government — in other words, a democracy?