Month: November 2022

What Could Bring Putin Down?

Regime Collapse Is More Likely Than a Coup

Can Russian President Vladimir Putin lose the war in Ukraine and retain power? As Ukraine’s driving counteroffensive erodes Russia’s position on the battlefield, that question is getting increasing attention. Discussion has focused on the possibility of a coup, whether an armed insurrection by disgruntled Russian generals or a mutiny by Kremlin insiders. Although not impossible, neither of these is currently very likely. In fact, a different danger is more plausible: a comprehensive meltdown of the regime, as multiple challenges overwhelm its capacity to react and dysfunction drains confidence in Putin’s leadership.

Iran Battles Turkish Influence In South Caucasus – Analysis

Iran is trying to regain its influence in the South Caucasus. In October, it announced large-scale military exercises, dubbed “Mighty Iran”, near the border with Azerbaijan. The drills, a repeat of last year’s, should be seen as an expression of the growing discomfort within the Islamic Republic toward what it sees as the worsening geopolitical situation in the South Caucasus.

Russia’s Reliance On Iran, Sign Of Putin’s Isolation, Says Pentagon

Russian President Vladimir Putin is relying on Iran to supply weapons for his war in Ukraine, which is a sign of his isolation, Pentagon Press Secretary Air Force Brig. Gen. Pat Ryder said during a news conference.

Ryder could not confirm news reports that Russia has asked Iran for ballistic missiles and other capabilities, but he did confirm that Iran has provided hundreds of unmanned aerial vehicles to Russia. And Russian forces have used them to attack Ukraine.

Africa: As Terrorists Claim New Ground, An African Strategy Is Vital

Global terror groups have set their sights on Africa, making a common African Union-led approach a matter of urgency.

As Islamic State (IS) and al-Qaeda leaders have been targeted and eliminated internationally, the terrorist groups have expanded and consolidated their African operations. According to Jihad Analytics, half the attacks claimed by IS since the beginning of 2022 were carried out in 10 African countries. Among them were Cameroon, Chad, Niger and Nigeria – the four Boko Haram-affected countries of the Lake Chad Basin.

Leaders conclude 31st Arab League summit in Algeria

Arab leaders on Wednesday concluded the 31st summit of the largest annual Arab conference after seeking to bridge the gap on several divisive issues in the Middle East and Africa. The first Arab League gathering in three years took place against the backdrop of rising inflation, food and energy shortages, drought and the soaring cost of living across the region.

Interview with Ms. Sofia Koller, Senior Research Analyst at the German Counter Extremism Project (CEP)

About 1,150 individuals left Germany and traveled to the Middle East to join ISIS and other terrorist groups. Germany has conducted various repatriation operations bringing back ISIS-affiliated women and minors though many male fighters remain in Syria and Iraq. According to a recent report published by the Counter Extremism Project, at least 7 women and 22 children remain in the Al-Roj camp, with 2 German women also present in the Al-Howl camp in Northeast Syria.

Iraq’s new government outlines priorities

Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani faces multiple challenges and constituencies to move his agenda.

The Iraqi parliament approved the new government of Mohammed Shia al-Sudani on Oct. 27, as the 29-page ministerial program put forth by Sudani was put to a vote and received more than 250 of 329 parliamentarians’ votes.