The Past and Future of Deobandi Islam

As the barack obama administration considers modifying the current U.S. strategy in Afghanistan, it is useful to understand the social, religious and historical forces that influence Pashtun society. Pashtuns form the single largest community in Afghanistan, consisting of approximately 38% of the population.[1] Pakistan also hosts a significant Pashtun population, primarily in the North-West Frontier Province (NWFP), where they make up 78% of the population, and in the Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA), where they make up 99% of the population.[2] Overall, 15% of Pakistanis are Pashtun.[3]

How Dangerous Is Afghanistan’s Islamic State Group?

The Islamic State offshoot that Americans blame for Thursday’s deadly suicide attacks outside the Kabul airport coalesced in eastern Afghanistan six years ago and rapidly grew into one of the more dangerous terror threats globally.

Despite years of military targeting by the U.S.-led coalition, the group known as Islamic State Khorasan has survived to press more assaults as the United States and other NATO partners withdraw from Afghanistan, and as the Taliban return to power.

Powerful Islamist Group Intensifies Crackdown on Jihadists in Syria’s Idlib

A powerful Islamist militant group in the northwestern Syrian province of Idlib has launched a military campaign against rival jihadist groups, local news reports and rights groups said Sunday.

Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), the dominant force in Idlib, the last major rebel stronghold in Syria, on Sunday began targeting villages in the western part of Idlib where jihadists have significant presence, according to the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights.

The Syrian Observatory, which monitors war developments in the country, said HTS fighters raided the village of Arab Saeed in Idlib, arresting several jihadist militants, including a leader with the Hurras al-Din group.

Hurras al-Din is one of several jihadist factions that have been operating in northwestern Syria. The group is al-Qaida’s main affiliate in the war-torn country.

Before formally severing ties with the global jihadist group in 2016, HTS was regarded as the Syrian branch of al-Qaida. At the time, it was known as the al-Nusra Front.

The crackdown comes nearly two weeks after several jihadist groups, including Hurras al-Din, announced the formation of a joint operations room to coordinate efforts in the fight against Syrian government troops and allied forces.

A local administration in Idlib backed by the HTS issued a statement Sunday, saying no armed groups are allowed to operate in the city of Idlib, except for those affiliated with the HTS.

Neutralizing extremists

The Syrian Observatory said the fighting Sunday between HTS and Hurras al-Din forced the latter to agree to a cease-fire that required the jihadist group to evacuate its headquarters and withdraw from certain parts of Idlib.

Rami Abdulrahman, director of the Syrian Observatory, charges that the ongoing crackdown by HTS against other extremist groups in the restive province has been approved by the Turkish military.

“As part of this campaign, the Turkish government is trying to neutralize groups that are more radical than HTS,” he told VOA. “In one way or another, the HTS coordinates its efforts with the Turkish forces.”

Turkey rejects allegations that HTS is coordinating its recent efforts with Turkey-backed rebels.

Turkey, however, maintains a significant military presence in Idlib and other parts of northwestern Syria, while supporting Syrian rebel groups present there.

In March, Turkey and Russia brokered a cease-fire deal in Idlib aimed at bringing an end to a Syrian government offensive that had begun last year to recapture Idlib.

The two countries reached the agreement after several previous unsuccessful deals over Idlib, which is currently home to more than 2 million people.

According to all those agreements, Turkey was required to remove all extremist groups from the province, including those allied with the al-Qaida.

In 2018, Turkey officially designated the HTS as a terrorist organization. The designation came a few days before one of the agreements between Turkey and Russia over Idlib. According to that agreement too, the HTS was among the radical groups to be removed from Idlib by Turkey.

M4 significance

The current truce between Russian-backed Syrian troops and Turkish-backed rebels in Idlib remains largely holding as Russia and Turkey have been conducting joint patrols in the Syrian province.

Jihadist groups active in Idlib have consistently rejected cease-fires in the province, including the joint Russian-Turkish patrols on parts of the strategic M4 Highway that connects the two Syrian provinces of Aleppo and Latakia and goes through Idlib.

Abdulrahman of the Syrian Observatory said Turkey has been trying to remove all obstacles that stand in the way of fully implementing its agreement with Russia, and therefore it has decided to unofficially support HTS efforts to weaken the jihadists in Idlib.

Aymenn Jawad al-Tamimi, a Syria researcher at Swansea University in the U.K., says he doesn’t believe the HTS crackdown came because of Turkish orders.

However, he told VOA, “the end result is that this [campaign] allows the Turkey-Russia patrols to proceed and is an end to the limited leeway HTS previously granted its jihadist rivals.”

The Islamist group seeks to subdue those jihadist rivals who attempt to challenge its monopoly on power in Idlib, al-Tamimi said.

“What HTS once saw as a nuisance it could keep under control now became more of a threat in its eyes requiring to be properly subdued, though not necessarily eliminated,” he added.

And while the HTS may use rhetoric against the Russian-Turkish agreement over Idlib, in practice it abides by it, al-Tamimi said.

Political benefit

Some experts believe the HTS campaign to target extremists is a bid by the militant group to be included in any political settlement over Idlib and Syria as a whole.

“HTS has been trying to signal – to Turkey, most immediately, but by implication to the wider international community – for some time that it can be an acceptable long-term actor in Syria, and attacking an avowed al-Qaida group like Hurras al-Din is certainly a way to do that,” Kyle Orton, a Syria researcher based in London, told VOA.

The timing of this campaign, however, seems to be sending mixed signals.

“HTS could have wiped out Hurras al-Din at any time and chose only to move when there was political benefit, or HTS is not in fact capable of eliminating Hurras al-Din, so even on cold realist terms HTS is useless in handling the issue that most external actors care about, namely transnational terrorists,” Orton concluded.

Obscure Islamist Group Targets Turkish Military in Northwest Syria

A small Islamist militant group has claimed responsibility for an attack on Turkish forces in the northwestern Syrian province of Idlib.

The Ansar Abu Bakr al-Siddiq Squadron said it was behind the attack Saturday that targeted a Turkish military outpost in the northern countryside of Idlib.

“The sniper platoon of the Abu Bakr al-Siddiq Squadron targeted one of the main bases of the ‘Turkish NATO’ military stationed near the town of Batbo, north of Idlib,” the extremist group said Sunday in a statement published on social media.

International Order in the Coming Cryptocurrency Age: The Potential to Disrupt American Primacy and Privilege?

Abstract

Although a significant body of literature in the field of International Relations has emerged over the past decade proclaiming the coming end of American primacy – whether due to American decline, the rise of China and other emerging powers, or a combination of both – this article argues that when considered objectively, the United States’ primacy and position as the arbiter of the international order is safe for the time being. Despite apparent cracks in the so called liberal international order, especially since the election of Donald Trump in late 2016, this article argues that due to the United States’ privileged financial position, the liberal international order remains largely resolute and continues to privilege the United States over the rest. However, this article argues that the growth of cryptocurrencies potentially undermines American primacy because it threatens the privileged position of the US dollar as the unchallenged global reserve currency. Independent cryptocurrencies, due to their privacy and decentralization, operate beyond the scope and power of the state, giving them the potential to be counter-hegemonic. Furthermore, potential revisionist states – especially China or Russia – may try and weaponize cryptocurrencies to challenge the United States. While this article acknowledges the volatility of independent cryptocurrencies and the inherent limitations of state-backed ones, it is argued that, regardless, the technological revolution they are precipitating is disruptive and should eventually undermine and change the international financial system. This, in turn, could hasten the decline of the United States from its current prime position and arbiter of the international order.

Introduction: Neither Liberal nor International nor Order

The liberal international order (LIO) has long been playing a central role in current analyses of and debates over U.S. foreign policy. Even though there are numbers of different attributions and characterizations, the LIO comprises first several institutions that has been created by the US after the second World War. Those institutions include security alliances in Europe (NATO) and Asia (the US bilateral hub and spoke system), Bretton Woods institutions and the United Nations (Glaser 2019). LIO comprises several normative assets such as openness, free-trade, democracy promotion, freedom, respect for human rights as well. Therefore, LIO is generally defined as an international system in which norms, rules, obligations and rights are broadly settled under institutional procedures and they are followed by the community of nations (Ikenberry 2001, p.36). Thus, what LIO is an aggregation of these rules and institutions, many of which Western (American) in their origin.

The Neocons Speak: Afghanistan As Political Real Estate – OpEd

When the tears dry, it is worth considering why there is so much upset about the fall of Kabul (or reconquest) by the Taliban and the messy withdrawal of US-led forces. A large shield is employed: women, rights of the subject, education. Remove the shield, and we are left with a simple equation of power gone wrong in the name of paternalistic warmongering.

Erdogan Says Turkey Holds Talks With The Taliban In Kabul

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan on Friday said Turkey has held its first talks with the Taliban in Kabul, adding that Ankara was still assessing Taliban’s offer to run the Afghan capital’s airport.

The Turkish leader said the talks were held at a military section of the Kabul airport where the Turkish embassy is temporarily stationed.