Special Analysises
Libya
EU foreign ministers agreed to revamp the EU’s naval mission in the Mediterranean by redeploying naval assets to monitor the UN’s arms embargo. Crisis Group expert Giuseppe Famà says a renewed naval presence off Libya’s coast could increase the EU’s ability to name and shame violators and deter some arms transfer to the warring parties. But it remains to be seen how the embargo can be monitored elsewhere in Libya and whether, in the event that migrant flows surge, member states will succumb to domestic pressure by swiftly withdrawing naval assets.
South Sudan
President Salva Kiir and opposition leader Riek Machar agreed to form the long-awaited unity government after major concessions from both parties. Crisis Group expert Alan Boswell says Kiir reverted the country to ten states, firing 32 governors and reversing much territorial gerrymandering, and Machar accepted to return to Juba without his own security forces. Much work remains on many fronts but the deal offers a real chance to end the long civil war.
The Jihadist Factor in Syria’s Idlib: A Conversation with Abu Muhammad al-Jolani
As a humanitarian disaster unfolds in Idlib, the last bastion of Syria’s Islamist rebels, the question is whether accommodation is possible between the militants and their foes. External actors should answer by gauging the insurgents’ ability to maintain calm and their sincerity about aiding civilians.
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Greek Islanders Want Their Life Back
“We want our islands back… We want our lives back!!!” — Posters across Greece’s northeast Aegean islands.
Denmark’s Integration Experiment Reflects European U-turn
In the last decade of the 20th century, Western Europe threw open its doors to those fleeing the collapse of Yugoslavia. Today, Denmark says integration has failed and is pursuing a worrying experiment in dismantling immigrant ‘ghettos’.
France: Macron Vows Crackdown on Political Islam
“The problem is when, in the name of a religion, some people want to separate themselves from the Republic and therefore not respect its laws.” — French President Emmanuel Macron, February 18, 2020.
Switzerland Thwarts Major Islamic State Terror Attack
According to a new investigation by Swiss media, a cell of jihadists based in Geneva plotted to bomb cisterns full of oil near the city’s airport in a major terror attack.
Can German Activists Stop the Neo-Nazi Resurgence?
A conservative regional politician, who’d been hounded online by the far right Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) party, was shot dead on his porch last June by a man who’d previously volunteered to hang AfD campaign posters.
Father and brother of British man who fought against Isis in Syria charged with terror offences
The father and brother of a man who fought against Isis in Syria have been charged with terror offences, in what is believed to be the first case of its kind.
Interview With Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham Leader Abu Muhammad al-Jowlani
Amid the heavy losses of the insurgency in the current round of fighting in northwest Syria (Idlib and its environs), one criticism has been made is the supposed absence of the leaders of the insurgent factions.
Serbia Receives Delivery Of Russian Antiaircraft Systems Despite U.S. Sanction Threats
Serbia has over the weekend received a delivery of Russian-made Pantsir S1 air-defense systems, despite warnings of possible U.S. sanctions against the Balkan state, which is seeking membership to the European Union.
Special Analysises
Video claim of credit by AQAP. Raymni also encouraged knife attacks such as “stabbing with household knife” at the 12:55 minute mark. Five different stabbings were featured listing both the United States inspirational street stabbings. US is top target but “British Muslims” were the target audience for the proposed stabbings.
TRAC President Veryan Khan and Analyst Bethany Rudibaugh spent time this week on a claim of credit by al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) for the 04 December shooting at Naval Air Station Pensacola. Saudi Air Force member, 2nd Lt. Mohammed Saeed Alshamrani, opened fire during a training program, killing three before being shot dead by Sheriff’s deputies. Designated as terrorism, the incident had huge implications for U.S. “security cooperation” training programs. Thousands of foreign national military service members are brought to the U.S. annually to help develop military skills and to reinforce multi-national relationships. The attack forced a temporary halt to programs involving Saudi Arabia. On 02 February, AQAP issued an unexpected claim of credit by posting a video/audio message on a Telegram channel. Khan and Rudibaugh examined video to determine authenticity and the connection with Alshamrani. Their analysis deemed the lag time for the claim “not unusual,” pointing to the week it took for AQAP to claim Charlie Hebdo in 2015; and concluded that It should be noted that Raymi did not give any direct evidence that Mohammed Alshamrani was an AQAP fighter, but did offer images of Alshamrani’s personal life.
Rumors Circulate: Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) Leader Qasim al-Raymi Killed by US Drone Strike in Wadi Ubaidah District , Marib, Yemen – 30 January 2020
According to the U.S. Rewards for Justice Program “Qasim al-Rimi was named emir of AQAP in June 2015, immediately after he swore allegiance to al-Qa’ida leader Ayman al-Zawahiri and called for renewed attacks against the United States. Al-Rimi trained terrorists at an al-Qa’ida camp in Afghanistan in the 1990’s, and subsequently returned to Yemen and became an AQAP military commander. He was sentenced to five years in prison in 2005 in Yemen of plotting to assassinate the U.S. Ambassador to Yemen, and escaped in 2006.”
The AQAP claim for the Naval Air Station Pensacola attack follows intense speculation on the leader of the terrorist group, Qasim al-Raymi. On 29 and 30 January 2020 chatter circulated Twitter about an alleged United States drone strike on the residence of an “al-Qaeda member” in the Marib province of Yemen.After further investigation into this chatter, tweets surfaced that al-Raymi had been targeted and killed in the strike. If confirmed that Qasim al-Raymi was killed, AQAP’s leadership structure will have to reorganize and certainly will affect their operations at least in the short term
(Instructional Advice) Anarchist: How-To Destroy Signal Boxes and Railroad Tracks to Disrupt Trains Using Thick Gauge Copper Wire & Thermite in North America – 25 January 2020 (Advocating Attacks on Infrastructure)
The “Act For Free / Act For Revolution” website banner
On 25 January, TRAC Analyst, Kelsey Tamplin discovered on the anarchist website, “Act For Free / Act For Revolution,” which is known for posting anarchist activity around the world from official groups and self-starter/lone wolves, an instructional manual on how to destroy railways. Even before the instructional manual was published, there were two sabotage attacks on Canadian railways – both of which appeared to have been committed by lone wolves. It is worth noting that there is some similarities between the instructions on railways and other recent instructions given by white nationalists on Telegram. However, the anarchist instructions are much more detailed than those of the racists’ online echo chamber.
Caliphate Soldiers Targeted The Gas Pipeline Between The Jews and The Egyptian Government By Several Explosive Devices In ‘al-Talol’ Village, East Bir al-Abd, Sinai, Egypt – 3 February 2020
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TRAC Analyst, Sophia Badawy reported a claim by Islamic State Sinai (ISS) attempting to make good on the promise from the new Caliph to attack Israel. Egypt began importing gas from Israel last month through an East Mediterranean Gas Company (EMG) pipeline, which includes a sub-sea connection between el-Arish in Sinai and Ashkelon in Israel. In the second audio message released by the new Caliph, Shaykh Abu Hamza al-Qurashi, he specifically called on cells in the Sinai to attack Isreal and it appears that Islamic State Sinai (ISS) is attempting to answer that call.