IntelBrief: Iran and Hezbollah Poised to Retaliate

Bottom Line Up Front

  • Iran and its allies in the “Axis of Resistance” likely perceive recent Israeli attacks as an escalation designed to provoke a broader regional confrontation on Israel’s terms.
  • Iran is likely to launch missiles and armed drones at Israel, aiming to cause extensive damage, in contrast to its April barrage that was mostly intercepted.
  • Iran’s most potent partner, Lebanese Hezbollah, is likely to join any attack in force as a response not only to the Haniyeh killing but also to retaliate for Israel’s Beirut strike last week that killed a top commander, Fuad Shukr.
  • U.S. officials are building up forces in the region to signal to Iran that a major attack on Israel risks bringing Iran into an unwanted conflict with the United States, something Tehran also hopes to avoid.

Syria Today – U.S. Investigating 2019 Baghdadi Strike Again; Can Northeast Syria Delink from the PKK?

Today’s news round on Syria covers critical developments shaping the region’s complex landscape. The Pentagon is reinvestigating claims of civilian casualties during its 2019 raid targeting ISIS leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, prompted by new accounts and congressional pressure. In eastern Syria, pro-government fighters, backed by Iran, launched attacks on U.S.-supported positions, resulting in fatalities and escalating tensions in Deir el-Zour. Meanwhile, the Atlantic Council’s report by JP Reppeto examines the possibility of delinking northeast Syria from the PKK, a significant point of contention between the U.S. and Turkey, as both nations seek to address the deep-rooted PKK influence while maintaining regional stability and combating ISIS.

Syria Today – Iran Issues Warning on Escalation; Government Forces Clash with SDF

Today’s news round on Syria highlights the ongoing and escalating violence within the region. Syrian officials issued a stern warning to Israel over potential escalations following a deadly strike in Majdal Shams, resulting in the deaths of a dozen children and teenagers. Additionally, a truck bomb in Azaz killed 10 people at a rebel checkpoint, exacerbating the conflict between Kurdish-led SDF and Turkish-backed rebels. In Deir ez-Zor, fierce clashes between Syrian government forces and the SDF resulted in multiple casualties. Meanwhile, the Syrian National Party and tribal leaders in Hasakah reiterated their support for the SDF, denouncing external forces attempting to destabilize the region.

Tehran’s Strategy: Leveraging Tribal and Clan Forces to Counter Washington East of the Euphrates

The recent attacks by “Tribal and Clan” forces on areas controlled by the SDF have reignited the debate about the nature and affiliations of these forces. Critics of the Autonomous Administration view these groups as Arab forces striving to liberate their territories from PKK control, denying any ties to Iran or the Syrian regime. Conversely, supporters of the Autonomous Administration argue that these forces are an Iranian initiative aimed at destabilizing the region.

Russia’s Mounting Economic Problems

For around two and a half years since the start of the Russian aggression against Ukraine, many analysts have predicted an inevitable economic crisis that sooner or later would hit Russia. However, by early 2024, these forecasts had proved wrong. The war with the neighboring country elevated the government military spending; the wave of emigration resulted in labor shortages and therefore pushed wages higher; the capital controls locked money inside the country and thus increased domestic demand. In addition to all this, Russian exports have not collapsed even despite the European and American energy embargo and the oil price cap,[1] remaining more or less at their 2021 levels after an extraordinary surge in 2022. In 2023, the Russian economy grew by 3.6 percent,[2] the ruble-to-dollar exchange rate was just 15 percent lower than before the attack on Ukraine (which is, I would say, much less than the accumulated inflation for both 2022 and 2023),[3] and the real wages shot up by 8.5 percent while the inflation was accelerating, but still “remained under control” at 7.42 percent.[4]

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Mali cuts diplomatic ties with Ukraine over massacre of Wagner mercenaries claim

Mali has cut diplomatic ties with Ukraine after Kyiv suggested a tip off from its intelligence services had allowed rebels to massacre a force of government troops and Russian mercenaries.

Mali’s northern Tuareg rebels claim they killed at least 84 mercenaries from the Kremlin-backed Wagner group along with 47 Malian soldiers over days of fierce fighting late last month.

Spotlight on Terrorism: Hezbollah, Lebanon and Syria (July 29 – August 5 , 2024)

  • During the past week, Hezbollah claimed responsibility for 43 attacks on military and civilian targets in northern Israel, including communities attacked for the first time since the beginning of the war. A civilian was killed; an officer and an IDF soldier were injured.
  • Israeli Air Force aircraft attacked Hezbollah targets and operatives in south Lebanon and the Lebanon Valley. Hezbollah announced the death of eight operatives, including its senior military commander, Fuad Shukr, who was killed in an airstrike on the southern quarter of Beirut.
  • Given the killing of Fuad Shukr, Hezbollah has become concerned Israel infiltrated its ranks and the organization has begun arrests and investigations.
  • Hezbollah continued making preparations to retaliate against Israel for Fuad Shukr’s death. “Sources” said that the organization would attack “a sensitive strategic area.” Western and Arab countries called on their citizens to leave Lebanon and airlines suspended or reduced their flights to and from Beirut.
  • Hezbollah summed up 300 days of fighting and claimed responsibility for 2,500 attacks on Israel.
  • The prime minister of Lebanon’s interim government accused Israel of violating Lebanese sovereignty. The Lebanese foreign ministry filed a complaint against Israel with the UN Security Council, claiming cyber-attacks.
  • Syria: Attacks on a Hezbollah-controlled airport near Homs and a truck convoy on the Syria-Lebanon border were attributed to Israel. According to reports, Hezbollah opened a new UAV factory in the Homs region. According to assessments, Syria will directly join the conflict against Israel only if Hezbollah is broadly attacked.

World War III Coming Soon, U.S. Military Woefully Unprepared

“The Commission finds that DoD’s business practices, byzantine research and development and procurement systems, reliance on decades-old military hardware, and culture of risk avoidance reflect an era of uncontested military dominance… Such methods are not suited to today’s strategic environment…. The U.S. public are largely unaware of the dangers the United States faces or the costs (financial and otherwise) required to adequately prepare,” — Commission on the National Defense Strategy, July 29, 2024.

Israeli Islam Isn’t a Contradiction, but It Isn’t Easy

The surprising and evolving intersections between the Jewish state and Islamic institutions.

Introduction

The term “Israeli Islam” may sound like an oxymoron, but Islam is present in Israeli society—and inside the Israeli state. Just under one-fifth of Israelis are registered by the state as Muslims; Muhammad has been the most common name for Israeli babies for years. And a series of state structures oversees, supports, administers, monitors, and polices Islamic practices and institutions in the country.