Chad: What are the risks after Idriss Déby’s death?

The death of Chad’s President Idriss Déby has plunged the country into uncertainty, causing concern among many Chadians and in neighbouring states. Crisis Group looks at recent events and examines the main risks facing the country.

What has happened?

According to official reports, Chad’s President Idriss Déby Itno died on Tuesday 20 April around 1am after clashes between the national army and the Front for Change and Unity in Chad (FACT) not far from Mao, in the country’s central Kanem region. After 30 years in power, Déby had just been re-elected for a sixth consecutive term in office. His death was announced at 11am on national television by the army’s spokesperson, General Azem Bermandoa. Some observers have expressed doubts about this version of events and suggest alternative, unconfirmed hypotheses about the circumstances of Déby’s death. One prominent story refers to a gunfight breaking out after failed negotiations with FACT members.

How have Russia’s policies in the Middle East changed since the Arab uprisings?

Comparing Russia’s policies between 2011-15 and 2015-21

The response of the Russian government to the Arab uprisings that began in January 2011 has aimed primarily at protecting its interests in the Middle East, including security and economic objectives.[1] Nonetheless, it has pursued different approaches over time: an initial period of observation and political pressure between 2011 and 2015, followed by more active policies thereafter. This essay explains the reasons for this shift and argues that Russia’s policies since 2015 are likely to continue, despite domestic and external challenges.

Greece’s Moria Refugee Camp Was Inhumane. Things Just Got Worse

Until a couple weeks ago, Moria was the largest refugee camp in Europe. Situated on the Greek island of Lesbos, it housed roughly 13,000 people in facilities that were designed to hold 3,000. But starting on the evening of Sept. 8, a series of fires swept through Moria, reducing it to a smoldering ruin by the end of the week. Greek authorities have charged four young Afghan migrants with arson in connection with the fires.

Global Migration Is Not Abating. Neither Is the Backlash Against It

The European Migrant Crisis of 2015 has long since abated, but European nativist and populist parties continue to attempt to stoke the popular backlash against immigrants to fuel their rise. Italy’s Matteo Salvini, the golden boy of Europe’s anti-immigrant populists, even rode the issue into government in 2018, before marginalizing himself with a bid to force early elections in 2019 and, more recently, misplaying the politics of the COVID-19 crisis. Nevertheless, Europe’s other far-right populists, like France’s Marine Le Pen, continue to hammer on anti-immigrant sentiment, hoping it will remain a potent issue in upcoming elections.

Tchad : quels risques après la mort d’Idriss Déby ?

Que s’est-il passé ?

Selon des sources officielles, le président tchadien Idriss Déby Itno est décédé mardi 20 avril vers 1 heure du matin, à la suite de combats entre l’armée tchadienne et la rébellion du Front pour l’alternance et la concorde au Tchad (FACT), non loin de Mao dans la région du Kanem, au centre du pays. Au pouvoir depuis 30 ans, Déby venait tout juste d’être réélu pour un sixième mandat consécutif. Sa mort a été annoncée à 11 heures du matin, sur l’antenne de la télévision nationale, par le porte-parole de l’armée, le général Azem Bermandoa. Certains observateurs émettent des doutes sur cette version des faits et présentent d’autres hypothèses, non confirmées, sur les circonstances de sa mort, notamment celle d’une réunion de négociations avec des membres du FACT qui aurait tourné à la fusillade.

The Afghan Taliban’s Goal Is To Establish A Sunni Islamic Theocratic State – They Do Not Believe In Power-Sharing With A Democratically Elected Government

Introduction

On April 14, 2021, the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan (IEA, or the Afghan Taliban organization) announced that it would not participate in the Istanbul conference on the future of Afghanistan. The Istanbul conference, which was set to begin on April 24, is led primarily by the United States, with other partners being Turkey, Qatar, and the United Nations.[1]

Muhammad Naeem, the spokesman of the Islamic Emirate’s Political Office in Doha, tweeted: “Until all foreign forces completely withdraw from our homeland, the Islamic Emirate will not participate in any conference that shall make decisions about Afghanistan”; “The IEA performs its work with consultations [i.e., shura or the shari’a-based executive council] according to the guidance of the noble religion of Islam and then adopts the stance whatsoever is decided in the result of the consultation [shura].”[2]

US-Proposed Afghan Peace Huddle Postponed

The United Nations said Wednesday a multi-nation conference that the organizers had hoped would “add momentum” to the faltering peace talks between Afghanistan’s warring parties has been postponed.

Turkey, Qatar and the U.N. had planned to convene the 10-day event, proposed by the United States, in Istanbul starting this Saturday.

Prague Gives Moscow Ultimatum As Diplomatic Spat Escalates

The Czech Republic has warned Moscow that it will expel more Russian diplomats unless Czech Embassy staff ejected from Russia are allowed to return to work by noon on April 22.

In a dispute over Russia’s alleged role in a deadly 2014 explosion at a Czech arms depot, 18 Russian diplomats identified by Czech intelligence as being intelligence operatives left their posts in Prague on April 19 as 20 Czech Embassy employees in Moscow also were forced to leave.