Regional realignment is storming ahead in the run-up to November 29, the date set for the resumption of nuclear negotiations between Iran and the global powers in Vienna. This is being driven by sudden, major regional developments. This includes the alleged actions by Iran’s proxies in Iraq, such as an assassination attempt against Prime Minister Mustafa Al Kadhimi as well as Hezbollah’s activities in Lebanon.
Admit nothing, deny everything, blame NATO and the West. That seems to be the Russian playbook under Vladimir Putin. The Russians have been massing troops on the Ukrainian border since spring. Many troops still remain in the region. Now, Russia is reinforcing them covertly as many experts believe that Moscow may be planning on making another move into Ukraine.
Russia and Belarus are also conducting large-scale exercises on the border with Poland as Moscow continues to act increasingly more aggressively in the region.
Réunis à Moscou, le ministre malien des Affaires étrangères, Abdoulaye Diop et son homologue russe, Sergueï Lavrov, ont démenti, jeudi, tout contrat avec le groupe de miliciens russes Wagner. Ils ont, en revanche, lié le rapprochement militaire entre leurs pays au retrait des troupes françaises dans le nord du Mali, ayant favorisé le risque terroriste.
Les chefs des diplomaties russe et malienne ont réaffirmé, jeudi 11 novembre, leur volonté de poursuivre le partenariat militaire entre les deux pays. Un rapprochement qu’ils légitiment par un risque terroriste renforcé en raison du retrait partiel des troupes françaises.
The UK has a crucial role to play in building up Ukraine’s military capacity, developing NATO coordination in the area and helping to deter Russian aggression.
In June 2021, British destroyer HMS Defender conducted a freedom of navigation operation in the Black Sea, close to Russian-occupied Crimea. A Russian patrol vessel fired warning shots at HMS Defender, which was shadowed by Russian naval and air assets. The British operation was a signal of solidarity to Ukraine which has put a spotlight on the UK’s involvement in the Black Sea and the emerging UK–Ukraine strategic defence partnership. The UK and Ukraine have recently signed the Political, Free Trade and Strategic Partnership Agreement, engaged in a rigorous defence dialogue and forged a cooperation agenda in the defence industry. The UK has stepped up its support to Ukraine to help it resist Russia’s hybrid pressures.
Despite persistent rumours, Russia remains highly unlikely to attempt to annex Belarus.
Rumours of a Russian takeover of Belarus have been around ever since Russia and Belarus signed the Union State Treaty in 1999. After Russia’s 2014 annexation of Crimea demonstrated that it was willing to act on its – up to that point purely rhetorical – commitment to the protection of its ‘compatriots’, pundits have argued that Belarus, home to large scores of Russian speakers, may well constitute the ‘next Crimea’. The nationwide protests against Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko that broke out around the fraudulent August 2020 presidential elections gave new impetus to these rumours: commentators argued that Russia might use the instability caused by the protests as an excuse to intervene in Belarus to pacify the country or some of its regions.
Bosnia and Herzegovina is once again making headlines. There is talk of renewed violence, with the blessing of Belgrade and Moscow. But the entire region is in a precarious situation.
Back in September 2021, tensions ran high in Montenegro following the decision to anoint Bishop Joanikije II as the new Serbian Orthodox Metropolitan of Montenegro. Since Serbia heavily backs the Serbian Orthodox Church and utilises it to expand its soft power influence throughout the Balkans, its meddling in Montenegro did much to aggravate relations between ethnic Serbs and ethnic Montenegrins, who are a majority. There were explosions, teargas being fired by law enforcement agencies and barricades blocking roads.
The international community is coming under increasing pressure to recognise the Taliban and to unfreeze Afghan funds held by the IMF or to risk a humanitarian crisis over the winter and a resurgence of international terrorism.
As Afghanistan heads deeper into winter the desperate need is to avoid a humanitarian crisis. The World Food Programme has launched an appeal to feed up to 23 million people and Médecins sans Frontières have followed suit in the healthcare field. Fortunately, the distribution mechanisms are in place inside Afghanistan; what is needed is for the international community to ensure that UN humanitarian programmes are fully funded. This will require Western capitals to get over the shock of their recent defeat. It goes without saying that hunger and health should not be used as instruments of political leverage.
On 7 November, outgoing Iraqi prime minister Mustafa Al-Kadhimi survived an assassination attempt, casting a shadow over the country’s recent elections. While the attack remains unclaimed, pro-Iranian Popular Mobilisation Forces (PMF) groups are suspected of being involved following their party’s (the Fatah Alliance) rejection of the election results. The attack occurred only days after large demonstrations, held by Fatah supporters, turned violent last week in Baghdad. The protestors are claiming election fraud after the party lost a significant chunk of its parliamentary seats in the October 10 elections.
A man convicted of terrorism in Belgium has been detained as he entered Bulgaria through its south-eastern border with Turkey, prosecutors announced on Thursday.
Border police and state security agents intercepted the man on Wednesday in a special operation, the prosecution said.
He is “sought in relation to a 20-year jail sentence for terrorism handed to him by a court in an EU country” and a terrorism sentence of nine years and five months in Turkey, it said.
When Russian peacekeepers arrived in Nagorno-Karabakh as part of a ceasefire deal between Azerbaijan and Armenian, they found it empty, blanketed in a thick November fog. After 44 days of brutal war, most [people] had fled, not believing the fighting was over. A year later, the region’s main city of Stepanakert is no longer a ghost town. Most of its residents have returned, followed by thousands of Armenians displaced from territories won over by Azerbaijani forces in the conflict. The scars of war are everywhere — damaged buildings, craters caused by missiles, and photos of the dead and missing hung for passers-by — but elders gossip on city stoops while children are playing in the streets once again. That renewed sense of security is largely thanks to the Russian presence there.