Filling the Void Left by Great-Power Retrenchment: Russia, Central Asia, and the U.S. Withdrawal from Afghanistan

The U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan, ending in August 2021, created favorable conditions for Russia to reassert itself as a regional hegemon in broader Central Asia. Historically, as great powers retrench from a territory, the resulting void can be filled either by rival powers or by friendly successor states responsive to the retrenching power’s agenda. While the United States has lacked reliable successors to take its place in the region, Russia has asserted itself in a number of ways to boost its own power and influence. Moscow has not only cultivated bilateral ties with each of the five Central Asian states, but it has also instrumentalized regional security organizations to advance its interests. However, the full-scale assault against Ukraine beginning in 2022 has undermined Russia’s initiatives in Central Asia and its aspirations for regional hegemony. The Central Asian countries fear Moscow’s apparent neo-imperial ambitions and prefer to develop multi-vectored foreign relations. In this situation, China is poised to supplant Russia as the dominant power and security provider in the region, which could create tensions within the so-called partnership without limits between Moscow and Beijing.

Ruining Europe to restore power to the US

Technologically, the Japanese have nothing to envy the Americans, whether in the electronics sector, artificial intelligence or the automotive industry. Similarly, the time when objects made in China could be considered as junk. Gigantic cities are endowed with the highest technology. In a few years, dozens of villages have been transformed into urban areas. The Chinese are great global suppliers of electronic components. Their wealthy entrepreneurs settled in Africa and project mega-projects in North America, particularly in Quebec. In 2022, the only lithium mine then operational in Canada, located in Manitoba, belonged to the Chinese company Sinomine Resource Group, which sends its production to China…1

Monday Briefing: After Hezbollah’s retaliation, no broader war for now, but the conflict drags on

After Hezbollah’s retaliation, no broader war for now, but the conflict drags on

Following Israel’s “pre-emptive strike” against Hezbollah military facilities and Hezbollah’s rocket and drone attacks, the two sides have engaged in a war of narratives, each trying to frame their respective operation as a success.

Given the continuing failure of the Gaza cease-fire talks, Hezbollah seems to be in a strategic trap of its own making: By linking the cessation of its war of support to a cease-fire deal, it has relegated the decision over when to end it primarily to the Israeli prime minister.

Qu’est-ce que l’IA ? Illusions numériques, fausses promesses et rééducation de masse

Au cours des cinq dernières années, le concept d’intelligence artificielle a fait l’objet d’une grande fanfare, à tel point que sa primauté est considérée dans les médias comme une évidence. L’idée que les algorithmes peuvent «penser» est devenue un mythe omniprésent, un fantasme de science-fiction qui prend vie. La réalité est beaucoup moins impressionnante…

Houthi AttacksPlacing Pressure onInternational Trade

Since November 2023, the Houthis have conducted dozens of attacks on commercial ships transiting the Red Sea, endangering civilian crews and threatening freedom of navigation through a critical global trans-
portation route.1 2 The Houthis are non-state actors in Yemen who have used Iran’s support to gradually expand their military capabilities since at least 2015.3 In early December 2023, the Houthis threatened to attack any ships that they believed were heading to Israeli ports, though many of their attacks both before and since have been against civilian ships with either tenuous or no known Israeli affiliations or port calls.4 5 6 Since mid-December 2023, the Houthis have also threatened to attack ships affiliated with the United States and its allies, including members of Operation PROSPERITY GUARDIAN, a multinational initiative to protect international freedom of navigation in the Red Sea.7 8 Despite seeking international legitimacy, Houthi actions have damaged regional security, impeded international humanitarian relief efforts, and put stress on global maritime trade.

Isolation of Glushkovsky district in Kursk region, UAVs flew to Murmansk, evacuation from Pokrovsk. What happened on the front this week

In today’s summary:

  • In Kursk region, Ukrainian troops are trying to occupy the regional center of Korenevo and completely isolate the Glushkovsky district
  • The Russian command has not yet transferred units from Donbass to the Kursk direction
  • The Russian Armed Forces have increased the pace of their advance toward Pokrovsk; a mass evacuation has been organized in the city itself
  • Ukrainian drones hit the Marinovka military airfield in the Volgograd region and almost reached Murmansk
  • The names of over a hundred conscripts who went missing and were captured in the Kursk region have been established
  • The US administration has not responded to a request for permission to use Storm Shadow on Russian territory for over a month
  • Germany plans to cut military aid to Ukraine from the budget, replacing it with loans secured by frozen Russian assets
  • Kamikaze drones from a sewer pipe and the first tank with a fully rubberized “king-barbecue” have been spotted on the front lines
  • The situation at the front
  • The offensive operation of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in the Kursk region has been going on for more than two weeks. In recent days, no large-scale changes in the LBS have been observed , but actions to expand the combat zone have not ceased. The presence of Ukrainian troops was reported in Olgovka , Vishnevka and Snagost on the approaches to Korenevo – another regional center, which is apparently planned to be taken after Sudzha .

Le projet d’un «Patriot Act» allemand vient d’être révélé

Entrées clandestines dans les maisons, piratage, logiciels espions : l’Allemagne veut étendre les pouvoirs de la police.

Actuellement, les perquisitions ne sont autorisées en Allemagne que si les forces de l’ordre informent explicitement la personne concernée des soupçons concrets pesant sur elle, et du but de la perquisition. Selon des révélations exclusives du journal Spiegel, cela s’apprête à changer.

Perquisitions secrètes