What Could Happen If Ukraine Devolves into an Insurgency?

Most analysts believe that unless a ceasefire and subsequent peace deal are reached soon, Russia’s war in Ukraine will devolve into a long and bloody insurgency.

If the conflict does transition to an insurgency, Ukraine is well-positioned to fight, given its knowledge of the home terrain, outpouring of popular support, and pipeline of assistance from Western countries delivering sophisticated weapons.

CIA paramilitary units and elements of SOCEUR can be force multipliers to the Ukrainian insurgency without ever having to step foot on Ukrainian soil, instead operating from Poland or other NATO countries in Eastern Europe.

There are also concerns that, should a full-blown insurgency develop and then drag on, Russia could deploy covert operatives to commit terrorist attacks on European soil.

Patriarch Kirill Angering Many Russian Orthodox Faithful For His Pro-War Statements

Patriarch Kirill has sent a clear signal that he is “with Putin and not with his flock” or even the basic principles of his faith, Sergey Chapnin says. Many Russian faithful are going along with him, but many are not, outraged that the church can’t even follow its own teachings call things “by their own names – war is war and aggression is aggression.”

Ukraine War Reveals Africa Divided

Ukraine has withdrawn an important contingent of peacekeepers from the United Nations (UN) Organization Stabilization Mission in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (MONUSCO) to defend their homeland. The move symbolises wider concerns that Europe may retreat from Africa as it confronts a growing threat from Russia that so blatantly manifested itself on 24 February.

What it’s like to fight the Russians: The defense of Mykolaiv

In the past 12 days, Ukrainian soldiers and volunteers have fended off multiple Russian attacks in and around Mykolaiv, a strategic port city of 500,000 seen as the gateway to Odessa, on the Black Sea.

Ultimately, Russian firepower and manpower far outweigh Ukrainian resources. But interviews in Mykolaiv with Ukrainians who have directly fought the Russians illustrate the growing challenges faced by the invading army, and some reasons for nascent optimism on the Ukrainian side.

Vladimir Putin has almost no chance of successfully occupying Ukraine

Ukrainians are bravely defending their country against Russian aggression, but President Vladimir Putin’s forces have seized or are on the verge of seizing a number of cities across southern and eastern Ukraine.

In the coming months, Russia could potentially gain control over approximately half of the country running from Kyiv in the north to Odesa in the south and the Donbas in the east. If they are successful, Russian occupying forces will assume responsibility for approximately 20 million people across an area the size of Norway.

Oligarchs Have Shaped Our View of Russia, But It’s Putin’s Corrupt Elite That has Hobbled Him in Ukraine War

Painted Russian wooden dolls of decreasing size one inside the other used to be a symbol of Russia as a mysterious and menacing place. This was the unmistakable message carried by the dolls in the opening credits of the original television version of John Le Carre’s Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy.

But this symbol of Russia is now being replaced by a picture in which an oligarch’s giant yacht rides at anchor off some Mediterranean resort. This provides an easily recognisable visual sign of the vast wealth obtained by the oligarchs, often corruptly acquired through looting the Soviet state of its most valuable assets after its collapse in 1991.

The Root Problem is War Not Putin

War is armed combat between political communities with the aim of inflicting serious injury or death on multiple, non-specified individuals.

War is slaughter.

War is a highly contagious disease, spreading germs the way a common cold causes its human host to sneeze. Among the many war germs are hatred, fear, dehumanization, tribalism, glorification of violence, and legitimization of murder. Without sufficient therapy, each war leads to the next.

Erdogan steps up pro-refugee rhetoric as 20,000 Ukrainians come to Turkey

The Turkish president’s pro-refugee rhetoric aims to deliver a positive message to Western allies and slash the opposition, but activists wonder if it is sincere.

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan pledged that “unfortunate people” who have sought shelter in Turkey would not be sent to their war-torn countries, simultaneously attacking the opposition’s anti-migrant rhetoric and signaling to the Western allies that he would not “weaponize” the refugee issue.

Punish Putin for past and present crimes

For decades, the idea of holding the Russian state accountable for atrocity crimes in a court of law was unthinkable.

The country’s status as a permanent member of the United Nations Security Council, as well as its refusal to join the International Criminal Court (ICC), have allowed those Russians responsible for war crimes and crimes against humanity—against Chechens, Georgians, and Syrians—to escape prosecution. Moscow has also benefited from a lack of political will from other states worried about disturbing the global world order.