reflectiigeopolitice.ro

This paper provides a comprehensive assessment of the attacks carried out by Hamas against Israeli settlements and military bases in the Gaza envelope on October 7, 2023. The ideological framework of these attacks was based on a set of political and military foundations that shape Hamas’s vision of the conflict with Israel, as well as the tools and strategies for managing it, considering past experiences and new developments. The paper also addresses the Palestinian landscape and the trajectory of the movement before and after October 7, along with the considerations for the second year of the war.

Ever since the start of the escalation in South Lebanon last October, with the harsh destruction and the dire economic situation of the residents of South and Central Lebanon, we have witnessed a significant rise of voices criticizing Hezbollah’s conduct.

The reason for the axis’s actions appears to be a desire for a new world order with themselves at the helm. They seem to believe that through their combined effort, America’s unipolar global leadership in the political, economic and military spheres can be upended.

[T]he driving forces underlying this developing clash of major powers have many facets, one of which appears to be religion, always a convenient pretext as so much can never be proven.

In the recent months, numerous articles in the Palestinian dailies Al-Hayat Al-Jadida and Al-Ayyam, published in the Palestinian Authority (PA) territories in the West Bank, have voiced sharp criticism against Hamas, emphasizing the immense damage it has caused to the Palestinian people and their national struggle, especially since its October 7, 2023 terrorist attack against Israel.[1]

The Middle East has experienced an extraordinarily tumultuous year, as the ripples from Hamas’ assault on Israel on Oct. 7, 2023, continue to fuel hostilities in Palestine, Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, Yemen, and the waters of the Gulf. The more recent intensification of conflict in Lebanon following Israel’s devastating pager and walkie-talkie attacks on Hezbollah has triggered a cycle of tit-for-tat escalation between Israel and Iran, placing the region onto a collective knife-edge. Meanwhile, the Houthis in Yemen have emerged from the tumult as an actor of considerable regional significance, having survived everything thrown their way by the United States-led military strike campaign and multiple maritime taskforces seeking (and failing) to deter their attacks, which have targeted more than 90 vessels to date, including US warships.

As Donald Trump prepares to return to the White House, the main question in Tehran is not so much what the incoming American president will do about Iran. Rather, it is about whether Tehran should negotiate with him. Numerous Iranian officials, including former senior diplomats, are making the case that Tehran should not forget it has agency and should signal to Trump that Iran is willing to negotiate. According to this view, Trump’s strong mandate following the Nov. 5 elections in the United States gives him latitude to cut a deal with Iran — and one that could be mutually advantageous. It remains to be seen whether such calls will shape Tehran’s posture following Trump’s inauguration.

Latest Developments

• ICC Alleges Crimes Against Humanity and War Crimes: A pre-trial chamber of the International Criminal Court (ICC) in The Hague issued arrest warrants on November 21 for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and former Defense Minister Yoav Gallant, six months after ICC Chief Prosecutor Karim Khan made the request. The ICC said that it found “reasonable grounds” to charge Netanyahu and Gallant with “the war crime of starvation as a method of warfare; and the crimes against humanity of murder, persecution, and other inhumane acts.” It also alleged “reasonable grounds to believe” that both bear “criminal responsibility as civilian superiors for the war crime of intentionally directing an attack against the civilian population.”