Ukraine in the Crosshairs

This past spring, Russia amassed 100,000 troops and a host of military equipment near the Ukrainian border in a transparent bid to threaten Kyiv; it seemed that an invasion might be imminent. Then, Russia withdrew most of its forces, claiming they had completed a training exercise, and the crisis was averted.

Fast-forward six months, and the situation has once again turned dire. Roughly 100,000 Russian troop have gathered at the border, along with tanks and artillery systems. U.S. officials have warned that Russia may be about to launch an attack. “Our concern is that Russia may make the serious mistake of attempting to rehash what it undertook back in 2014 when it amassed forces along the border, crossed into sovereign Ukrainian territory, and did so claiming falsely that it was provoked,” U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken said earlier this month, referring to Russia’s 2014 invasion and annexation of Crimea.

The migration crisis on the EU’s eastern border: A new transit route from the MENA region?

The migration crisis on the eastern border of the European Union (EU), which began earlier this summer and has ramped up dramatically in recent months, came as a surprise not only to the border countries, such as Lithuania, Latvia, and Poland, but also to top EU leaders. After the European migration crisis of 2015, EU politicians became used to the influx of migrants from countries in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) and Sub-Saharan Africa travelling through Mediterranean routes and Turkey. When it seemed as though mechanisms to prevent migration flows and control the main transit routes had been developed, a new crisis emerged in the last place anyone would have expected: Belarus. What gave rise to this crisis and what does it mean for the migrants who are desperately trying to enter the EU from Belarus as well as the countries facing a sharp rise in uncontrolled migration?

The EU’s Strategic Compass: Preparing to navigate MENA “with less US”

After almost two years of work, the first draft of the European Union’s (EU) so-called Strategic Compass was presented on Nov. 15. The objective of this military strategic plan is to agree on a set of proposals to guide the bloc’s defense cooperation efforts for the next five to ten years. Previous attempts at seriously bolstering Europe’s defense ambitions have often been half-hearted, but this time could be different because Europe feels genuinely threatened. For decades, the Old Continent could sit back and relax, with U.S. security guarantees firmly in place, the Russian Federation weakened, China seen as an economic opportunity but not a threat, and a MENA region that was unstable but for a long time had little direct security impact on the EU.

UN official speaks with Iraqi leaders to break post-election deadlock

Jeanine Antoinette Plasschaert, special representative of the secretary-general for Iraq, held talks with the head of Asaib Ahl al-Haq, Qais al-Khazali, to settle the election results crisis.

Jeanine Antoinette Plasschaert, special representative of the secretary-general for Iraq, has attended last night, Nov 18, the meeting of Coordination Framework that includes most of the political parties lost in the elections.

Sadr calls for majority government, ‘liquidation’ of Iraqi militias

Sadr calls for forming majority government as the Iraqi President Barham Salih hosted a meeting with the prime minister and the judiciary head to discuss the current political deadlock and present initiatives for it.

Amidst the political deadlock following Iraq’s elections on Oct. 10, Iraqi President Barham Salih hosted a meeting with Prime Minister Mustafa al-Kadhimi and Chief Justice of the Supreme Judicial Council Faiq Zaidan on Nov. 18 at Baghdad Palace in the Green Zone.

Syria: Shoring Up Raqqa’s Shaky Recovery

After suffering grievously under ISIS, and during the battles to defeat it, Raqqa is being rebuilt. The calm is tenuous, however. The U.S. and partners should work toward long-term stability in Syria’s north east, through investment and talks about sustainable governance and security arrangements.

Principal Findings

What’s new? Two years after an abrupt withdrawal of U.S. troops followed by a Turkish incursion, Raqqa is largely quiet. Yet the stability of this Kurdish-controlled predominantly Arab province in north-eastern Syria is precarious and hinges on U.S. deterrence of military moves from Turkey and/or Russia in tandem with the Damascus regime.

What a staggering gun cache discovered in one suspected neo-Nazi’s house says about far-right extremism in Europe

Last month, Austrian police made a remarkable discovery. In a raid on a house in the town of Baden, they found an arsenal of weapons and 1,200 kilograms of ammunition — as well as Nazi paraphernalia and a large amount of gunpowder.

Altogether some 50 weapons, including submachine guns and pump-action rifles, were seized. According to a police statement, the house belonged to a 53-year-old man who is “suspected of national socialist Nazi activities,” including sharing numerous files on Internet forums.

SOHR: 150 of pro-Turkey Syrian mercenaries return home without replacement

The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights stated that a batch of fighters consisted of 140 mercenaries loyal to Turkey left Libyan territory back to Syria on Turkish planes on Tuesday.

The mercenaries follow the factions of the “Sultan Murad Division,” the “Hamza Division,” and other factions as well, and they left Libya without sending a replacement until this moment, according to the Observatory sources.