Russian invasion of Ukraine would spell more economic turbulence for Turkey

War would bring Turkey under intense pressure from its Western allies to join putative sanctions against Russia, a critical trading partner and supplier of natural gas.

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s Feb. 3 meeting with his counterpart Volodymr Zelensky in Ukraine yielded a string of accords aimed at deepening economic and military ties between Ankara and Kyiv and thereby significantly raised the stakes for both sides should Russia attack the former Soviet state.

Eurosceptic Alliance to Fight Creation of European Superstate

“There is a growing threat that seeks to transform the European Union into an ideologically charged federalist super-state; a corporation which disregards national identity and sovereignty, and therefore democracy, plurality and the interests of the citizens of the nations that form the Union. This drift endangers the Union itself by moving away from the Christian European ideals on which it was founded…. We should cooperate and join forces to protect Europe from enforced ideologies and anti-democratic drift that are leading to its downfall.” — Joint Statement, Madrid Summit, January 29, 2022.

A Sixth Coup in Africa? The West Needs to Up Its Game.

Crisis in Guinea-Bissau, coup in Burkina Faso reflect how ‘stabilization’ policies fall short.

The government of Guinea-Bissau says it survived an attempted coup d’état yesterday, just days after Burkina Faso suffered the fifth coup in nine months around the greater Sahel. These upheavals cement this African region as the most pronounced center of a global crisis: Poor and authoritarian governance is breeding extremism and transnational criminality, igniting violence and undermining efforts to build democracies. Following last year’s military power grabs in Chad, Mali, Guinea and Sudan, the new crises highlight widening risks to security — for the 135 million people of the Sahel region, and ultimately for Europe and the United States. They also point to changes needed in U.S. and international policies.

Taliban Are Collecting Revenue — But How Are They Spending It?

U.S. and other donors must engage Taliban on their finances so that aid doesn’t pay for costs already covered by Afghanistan’s government budget.

Although economic and humanitarian conditions in Afghanistan continue to deteriorate, the Taliban have taken some positive steps toward financial stability by publishing a fiscally responsible three-month budget and raising considerable amounts of domestic revenue — especially through customs duties, which have risen with a crackdown on corruption.

Is Iran trying to provoke Israel against Russian assets in Syria? – opinion

Iran is well aware of the changing dynamic, and it would like to advance its interests by creating a fissure between Israel and Russia.

Why would Iran want to incite Israel to strike Russian personnel or facilities in Syria? To answer that question, we need to understand the evolution of Iranian and Russian interests in Syria, which have diverged over time. Today’s post-war situation in Syria is very different from just a few years ago when Assad was hanging by a thread for his survival. At that time, Russian and Iranian interests aligned in their shared desire to defeat ISIS and prop up the Syrian dictator.

A Death In Idlib: The Killing of the Top ISIS Leader and Its Impact

On 3 February, U.S. commandos raided a house in Syria’s Idlib province, killing Abdullah Qardash, head of the Islamic State’s core group in the Levant. In this Q&A, Crisis Group experts Jerome Drevon and Dareen Khalifa explore the implications of the ISIS leader’s demise.

Who was the ISIS leader killed yesterday in north-western Syria?

Abdullah Qardash, an Iraqi national also known as Abu Ibrahim al-Hashimi al-Quraishi, became ISIS leader on 31 October 2019, one week after his predecessor, Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, was killed in a U.S. raid in Idlib province in north-western Syria. Qardash was a long-time jihadist veteran. He joined what was known as al-Qaeda in Iraq shortly after the 2003 U.S. invasion to fight the U.S.-led coalition forces and the new Iraqi government. Like several other future ISIS leaders, he was arrested for his role in the insurgency and spent time in the U.S. Camp Bucca detention facility.

Turkey Announces Winter Eagle Air Operation Against Terrorists in Syria and Iraq

Turkey announced the beginning of an air campaign against “terrorist groups” on the border with Syria and Iraq, according to the Shaam News Network.

On Wednesday, the defense ministry of Turkey announced the launch of an air operation called Winter Eagle against so-called terrorists in the areas of Malikiyah – Derik, Sinjar, and Qarajiq –which they use as bases in northern Iraq and Syria, Turkey’s Anatolia news agency reported.