Convergence and the CT Return on Investment: A Framework

Abstract: Since 2018, the United States has been trying to figure out what counterterrorism looks like during an era of strategic competition, and how it can maximize and optimize returns from its counterterrorism investments. There are important differences between these two national security priorities—strategic competition and counterterrorism—but if the United States wants to gain resource efficiencies, it should look across the gray space at how and where these two priorities interplay and converge. This is because a key part of the pathway to CT optimization lies in realizing how counterterrorism has evolved as a form of influence. This article introduces a conceptual framework to help the counterterrorism community situate the returns from CT investments, especially deployed CT force activity. It recommends that those returns be understood through two lenses: 1) those that are direct and oriented around threat mitigation and 2) those that are intersectional and oriented around influence. Interviews with three experts provide context to elements of the framework and highlight the interplay between counterterrorism and strategic competition in different regional areas.

Smart Pressure: Conceptualizing Counterterrorism for a New Era

Abstract: When it comes to counterterrorism, the United States has been living through an inflection point. It wants to focus less on terrorism so it can place more emphasis on strategic competition, but key terrorist adversaries remain committed. The terrorism landscape and the approaches used by key terror adversaries have also been evolving. The United States and its partners have been placing various forms of pressure against priority networks such as the Islamic State and al-Qa`ida in key locations to keep the threats these groups pose degraded, and to restrict their ability to conduct external operations and other impactful acts of terror. But over the past two years, there have been growing signs that the Islamic State is evolving around the pressure that has been placed against it, developments that highlight the limits of existing CT pressure approaches and the need for those approaches to evolve. This article introduces two frameworks: 1) a framework to help conceptualize non-state VEO power and CT pressure efforts to degrade those elements of power and 2) a defense and degradation in depth framework that can be used to help strategically guide future CT pressure campaigns. It is hoped that these frameworks provoke debate within the counterterrorism community and that they help the United States and its allies adjust their CT approaches so they can evolve to stay ahead of the threat.

À quoi ressemblera le mouvement de masse du futur proche ?

À quoi ressemblera le mouvement de masse du futur proche ?

Cinq hypothèses, mais aucune d’elles n’est passionnante

L’idée d’une « fabrication de la politique » est une invention de l’époque contemporaine.

L’idée que le peuple en tant que tel est en charge du destin du monde est en effet l’enfant de l’avènement de la bourgeoisie, de l’urbanisation et, enfin, de la société de masse et/ou de consommation.

In shift, Erdogan’s top ally says Ocalan’s life sentence can be reassessed if PKK disbands

Devlet Bahceli also suggested that the conditions of the militant leader’s life sentence without parole be reconsidered if he agrees to make such a call.

In a U-turn that came as a bombshell for Turkish politics, Devlet Bahceli, a top ally of Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and leader of the Nationalist Movement Party (MHP), suggested that the conditions of Abdullah Ocalan’s life sentence without parole be reconsidered if the Kurdish militant leader accepts to declare the dissolution of his outlawed armed group.

Israeli Military Action is Key to Stopping Iran’s Proxies in Iraq

Iranian-backed militias in Iraq continue to launch drone and missile attacks against Israel in a show of solidarity with their allies in Gaza and Lebanon. Although many claims remain unverified, some attacks have targeted Israeli military personnel. On Monday, Israeli Foreign Minister Gideon Sa’ar urged the UN Security Council to pressure Iraq to curtail the activities of Iran’s proxies, emphasizing Israel’s right to self-defense under the UN Charter.

Trump, Trumpism, and the Polycrisis

“Polycrisis” is a word that has recently come into use to characterize the way crises in many different spheres – ranging from geopolitics and economics to climate and pandemic – are aggravating each other and even converging. Trump and Trumpism, like similar leaders and movements around the world, took off in the era of polycrisis and reflect many of its themes. They are also likely to severely aggravate the dynamics of the polycrisis.

Show and Tell: Expert Perspectives on Indicators and Warning Approaches for External Terror Ops

Abstract: It is critical for the counterterrorism community to have a sophisticated understanding of the components of external operations and the indicators that help to signal that a network’s interest, capabilities, or attack planning are advancing. It is even more critical to be able to effectively provide warning when an external operations terror attack is imminent. To help enhance and validate existing indicators and warning approaches, the authors conducted a survey of 30 practitioners, academics, and private sector specialists to acquire unique and varied insights on this important issue. This article provides a summary of key indicators that could indicate a change in a group’s intent and capability to conduct an external operations attack. It then examines existing shortfalls and offers potential solutions in the areas of artificial intelligence, data prioritization, and information sharing, before concluding with some unique models to consider from other fields that can help existing I&W approaches to evolve.

Jihadist Spillover Impact and Deteriorating Security in Coastal West Africa

Jihadist groups in the Sahel, particularly from Burkina Faso, now regularly cross into northern Ghana, using the area for logistical and medical purposes to sustain ongoing insurgencies and help expand freedom of movement throughout West Africa.

Though Ghana has thus far been spared of any major terrorist attacks, there have been attacks in neighboring countries on the West African coast, including Benin and Togo.

‘Daleel Al-Muqatil’ – ‘The Fighter’s Guide’: Hamas’s Religious-Operational Guide For Commanders – Translation And Analysis

Introduction

The atrocities committed by Hamas mujahideen in southern Israel on October 7, 2023 were carried out in the name of Islam, and for the sake of serving Allah’s will. Hamas’s activity, like that of other Islamist terrorist organizations, has its roots in Islamic religious sources, and aims to emulate the deeds and actions of the Prophet Muhammad and his seventh-century Companions.