Strategic Foresight and the War in Ukraine

The Russian invasion of Ukraine shows the essential value of looking ahead to medium- and long-term strategic trends.

In foresight terms, the war in Ukraine is known as a ‘grey rhino’ – a high-probability, high-impact development that took shape over a long period but was largely ignored. Even so, the war has come as a shock, and thrown much prior consensus about international affairs to the wind as officials and observers alike point to the start of a new era. However, there is a danger that imaginative, long-term strategic thinking is forgotten in the face of such a pressing problem. But when a crisis of these proportions emerges, we must make strategy that also looks at the bigger picture.

Analysts Warn Tunisia Risks Drifting Back to Pre-Revolutionary Era

Political analysts say a quest for ever-greater power by Tunisian President Kais Saied risks sending the nation back to pre-revolutionary times of “strongman” rule.

On Wednesday, Saied announced changes regarding the coming legislative elections. Tunisians will now vote for individuals instead of lists in a two-round ballot. He also indicated there would be changes to the Independent Electoral Commission, which he said would supervise the election but not with its ”current composition,” Reuters reported.

NATO eyes in the sky, keeping Europe out of Russia’s war

As Russia’s military buildup near Ukraine accelerated early this year, military planners at NATO began preparing to dispatch scores of fighter jets and surveillance aircraft into the skies near Russia and Ukraine. It was a warning to Moscow not to make the mistake of targeting any member country.

Kaduna’s train attacks add to Nigeria’s deep security problems

The brazen targeting of transport and state infrastructure reflects a security breakdown that threatens lives and economic prospects.

On 28 March, bandits attacked a Kaduna-bound train in central Nigeria carrying 970 passengers. At least eight people were killed, and 168 were kidnapped and are still missing. This unprecedented act of violence, attributed to the failure of authorities to act on intelligence reports, has heightened concerns about a breakdown of security in the country.

Dialogue with jihadists: Mauritania offers lessons for the Sahel

Mauritania’s strategy of preventing radicalisation drastically reduced youth recruitment by terrorists and helped prevent attacks since 2011.

If a decade of military operations hasn’t resolved the disastrous security crisis in the Sahel, could talking to the jihadists help bring peace? Dialogue isn’t a new idea, but Western partners have long opposed it, especially France. As their influence declines, the notion is becoming less taboo.

Hybrid warfare – Africa beware

The recent Mali case shows that countries undergoing transition or conflict mediation are susceptible to hybrid threats.

Africa is rapidly becoming a theatre for hybrid threats. Allegations of state-backed information campaigns designed to ramp up divisions in Mali and cyber attacks on humanitarian relief organisations such as the International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC) are examples. The use of drones as weapons in the Horn of Africa, Sahel and Mozambique by violent armed groups, state actors or their proxies also signals this emerging trend.

Exposed: The Russian Companies That Will Get Billions From New Iran Nuclear Deal

U.S.-government document shows Russia’s top state companies stand to cash in when sanctions drop

Several of Russia’s top state-controlled nuclear companies stand to gain billions of dollars in revenue as part of a new nuclear accord with Iran that will waive sanctions on these firms so that they can build up Tehran’s nuclear infrastructure, according to a U.S. government-authored document reviewed by the Washington Free Beacon.

Turkey: What Happens When You Have No Freedom of Speech

“In Turkey, human rights lawyers are particularly targeted for their work representing human rights defenders, victims of human rights violations, victims of police violence and torture, and many people who simply express dissenting opinions.” — Mary Lawlor, UN Special Rapporteur on the situation of human rights defenders, June 9, 2021.

Zelenskyy wants Ukraine to be ‘a big Israel.’ Here’s a road map.

Speaking to reporters this week, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy described the future he sees for his country in unusual terms: as “a big Israel.”

Gone, he said, are hopes for “an absolutely liberal” state—replaced by the likely reality of armed defense forces patrolling movie theaters and supermarkets. “I’m confident that our security will be the number-one issue over the next ten years,” Zelenskyy added.

Turkey, US launch new strategic mechanism amid Ukraine crisis

The long-awaited Turkish-US strategic mechanism aims to set up regular channels to help the two countries cooperate where they can and prevent outstanding issues from blowing up into crises.

Following months of diplomacy, Turkey and the United States have launched a strategic mechanism to boost cooperation in areas such as economy and defense.