Russia’s Ukraine War Has Narrowed — But Not its Goals

Putin remains fixed on erasing Ukraine. Ideas for peace talks can’t ignore that.

Russia’s Ukraine war, launched in February along the 350 miles from Belarus to the Black Sea, has largely narrowed these weeks to a 45-mile-wide assault on cities in the Donbas region. This and other signals may suggest that President Vladimir Putin is limiting his war aims and will settle for consolidation of control over four provinces in southern and eastern Ukraine. Yet this is probably just a short-term change. Putin’s goal is unchanged, and he is prepared to achieve it by degrees. This reality undermines well-meaning suggestions for peace negotiations that are based on beliefs the Kremlin will settle for what it has now.

How Putin’s Flawed Assumptions Doomed Russian Victory in Ukraine

The war in Ukraine seems to be entering a transitional phase. Early on, Russia failed in its effort to take Kyiv—so Russian President Vladimir Putin scaled back his ambitions and shifted his military’s efforts to the Donbas region in eastern Ukraine. As both sides battle it out there, exhaustion and the ability to replenish supplies, weapons, and manpower are becoming more and more critical.

UK spy chief says he doesn’t think Iran supreme leader wants to reach nuclear deal

‘The deal is absolutely on the table but I don’t think the Iranians want it,’ MI6 director tells security forum; CIA chief says Tehran’s advance toward atomic bomb is ‘troubling’

Britain’s spy chief voiced doubt Thursday on reviving a landmark 2015 nuclear accord with Iran, saying Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei remained opposed despite marathon diplomacy with the United States.

Pourquoi la Chine a du succès en Afrique

Pendant que les Européens prônent des valeurs, la Chine convainc le continent par sa puissance de frappe financière et l’efficacité de ses grands chantiers.

Une voie rapide qui s’étend sur 27 kilomètres au cœur de Nairobi et relie le principal aéroport du Kenya au quartier central des affaires de la capitale, au musée national et au palais présidentiel. Sa construction n’a duré que deux ans sous l’égide de la Chine.

Kremlinology and the Great Power Competition

While speculation around the potential demise of Putin’s regime is understandable, it is more helpful to consider the ‘so what’ of who comes next.

Since Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine in February, speculation has swirled about the Russian leadership. One common theme is the supposedly shrinking circle of people around Vladimir Putin, his political isolation and elite discontent – or even that there might there be a coup against him. Another is that senior officials are said to be seriously ill – or even dead. Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu was thought to have had a heart attack, for instance, and Putin has been repeatedly ‘diagnosed’ not just with a bad back, but with a whole range of serious mental and physical illnesses. A third theme is that frustration with failures in the campaign has driven Putin to fire (or ‘purge’) senior officials, first in the security services responsible for laying the ground for the invasion, and then in the military conducting it, including Chief of the General Staff Valeriy Gerasimov. For some, these are all signs that the Russian ‘ship is beginning to sink’.

Towards a Regional Code of Conduct for Missiles in the Middle East

With missile stockpiles edging up across the Middle East, there is a clear need to develop a regional code for their acceptable use.

The Middle East is entering a new missile age. More regional states are either developing indigenous production capabilities or importing missiles than ever before. Currently, 11 states in the Middle East have ballistic or cruise missiles with ranges exceeding 250 km in their arsenals. But it is not just about the number of regional actors acquiring longer-range missiles. Missiles have also become a frequent feature of several regional conflicts, where they are used to meet new and evolving objectives beyond just deterrence or signalling military strength. This was on display during the Syrian civil war, and continues to feature prominently in the war in Yemen. Iran currently actively employs missiles to project power regionally. These examples reflect new patterns of use and a greater access to missiles perhaps unprecedented on a regional scale. As these dynamics take hold, traditional options and views about missile control start to appear both inadequate and out of sync with new regional realities.