Risk or opportunity? How Russia sees a changing MENA region

The Russian invasion of Ukraine, which began on February 24, 2022, has served to accentuate ongoing differences between the United States and Europe on the one hand and the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) on the other. This has, to some extent, benefited Russia’s relations with the MENA region at the expense of the United States and Europe. But the impact of the Russian invasion may eventually prove harmful to Russia’s influence in the MENA region.

A pivot point for Europe’s role in the Middle East

Eleven years ago, as popular uprisings erupted across the Middle East and North Africa, Europeans imagined themselves as partners of choice for democratic and economic transitions that would create pathways to sustainable stability. This dream failed catastrophically. The region was overwhelmed by instability and conflict, and Europe, in turn, by waves of refugees and deadly terrorism. Through it all the European bloc found itself marginalized, crowded out by the more assertive interventions of regional and non-regional actors.

Iranian Regime Incites To Israel’s Destruction On World Qods (Jerusalem) Day, Using The Palestinians To Accomplish The Goals Of The Islamic Revolution – Destroying Israel And Establishing Iranian-Shi’ite Control In The Region – Part I

Introduction

As it does every year, the Iranian regime marked Qods (Jerusalem) Day, established by the father of Iran’s Islamic Revolution, Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, in 1979 as the last Friday of Ramadan; this year, it fell on April 29, 2022. Iran considers Qods Day a symbol of the destruction of Israel, aka the Little Satan. Beyond regime calls for the Israel’s destruction, whether through armed confrontation by the Islamic resistance or through a referendum among Palestinians worldwide (though not Jews, not even those in Israel), two trends are evident in this year’s Qods Day statements by regime officials:

Mercenaries Today: The Wagner Group

For many years, substantial military operations have been conducted by mercenaries, ranging from professional soldiers hired to fight wars for European potentates in the 14th century to the combat forces of Blackwater, a private company employed by the U.S. government to undertake violent activities in the “War on Terror” of the early 21st century.

Cuba Should Be Removed From the U.S. List of State Sponsors of Terrorism

The United States maintains a list of countries that it considers as “state sponsors of terrorism.” There are currently four countries on that list: Cuba, North Korea, Iran and Syria. The basic idea behind this list is that the U.S. State Department determines that these countries have “provided support for acts of international terrorism.” Evidence about those “acts” are not provided by the U.S. government. For Cuba, there is not one shred of evidence that the government has offered any such support to terrorism activities, in fact, Cuba has—since 1959—been a victim of acts of terrorism by the United States, including an attempted invasion in 1961 (Bay of Pigs) and repeated assassination attempts against its leaders (638 times against Fidel Castro).

Washington Post Promotes New Adversary For Pentagon: The Middle East

For the past year, the news and editorial commentary of the Washington Post has favored a more aggressive posture on the part of the United States and the Pentagon. The Post favors a U.S. naval presence in the Black Sea to break the Russian blockade against Ukraine as well as a more aggressive U.S. posture in the Indo-Pacific to challenge China. The twin notions of challenging Russia and China in their “home waters” conjures up images of daunting challenges that lead to increased defense spending and international tensions. And now the Post has added another adversarial challenge: the Middle East.

Turkey looks to import gas from Turkmenistan, test exports to Bulgaria

Turkey and Turkmenistan are working on a gas deal that will likely extend to Europe in a bid to reduce Western dependency on Russian gas.

With fears mounting that Russia may cut off gas supplies to Europe, Turkey is working on plans to bring in gas from Turkmenistan and has started transiting gas to neighboring Bulgaria, which has already had its supplies of Russian gas cut.