Spirals of Delusion

How AI Distorts Decision-Making and Makes Dictators More Dangerous

In policy circles, discussions about artificial intelligence invariably pit China against the United States in a race for technological supremacy. If the key resource is data, then China, with its billion-plus citizens and lax protections against state surveillance, seems destined to win. Kai-Fu Lee, a famous computer scientist, has claimed that data is the new oil, and China the new OPEC. If superior technology is what provides the edge, however, then the United States, with its world class university system and talented workforce, still has a chance to come out ahead. For either country, pundits assume that superiority in AI will lead naturally to broader economic and military superiority.

Iran and Iraq: The struggle for tenable relations

On July 25, the Atlantic Council’s Iraq Initiative and Future of Iran Initiative hosted a virtual event titled “Iran and Iraq: The struggle for tenable relations.” Moderated by Masoud Mostajabi, associate director of Middle East Programs at the Atlantic Council, the discussion analyzed the political, economic, and cultural ties and irritants between Iran and Iraq. The event included an introduction by Barbara Slavin, director of the Future of Iran Initiative at the Atlantic Council, and featured a panel including Abbas Kadhim, director of the Iraq Initiative at the Atlantic Council; Mohsen Milani, executive director of Center for Strategic & Diplomatic Studies and professor of politics at University of South Florida; Randa Slim, senior fellow and director of Conflict Resolution and Track II Dialogues Program at the Middle East Institute; and Ahmed Tabaqchali, nonresident senior fellow at the Atlantic Council.

Muqtada al-Sadr just issued a mass resignation decree. Where does Iraq go from here?

After eight months of stalemate in the Iraqi Council of Representatives (CoR), Muqtada al-Sadr ordered his parliamentary bloc to turn in their letters of resignation on June 12 and withdraw from the partially disabled legislature. Even with seventy-three members of parliament out (22 percent of the total members), the institution can still legally conduct regular business. If the mass resignation of the Sadrist bloc becomes final, the law will facilitate a smooth restoration of the full capacity by simply allowing the next highest performer in the October 10 elections to succeed resigning members from the same district. This is particularly straightforward, as the resignation of seventy-three members, although highly significant in symbolism, doesn’t preclude parliament’s ability to have a legal quorum.

Experts react: Muqtada al-Sadr withdraws from politics. What’s next for Iraq amid a deep political rupture?

Iraqi cleric Muqtada al-Sadr announced he would resign from Iraqi politics on August 29, prompting his followers to storm government palaces in response and sparking fears that violence could erupt in a country already beset by its worst political crisis in years. Iraq’s military announced a nationwide curfew and the caretaker premier suspended cabinet sessions in response to the violence.

Is Russia’s Economy on the Brink?

Moscow’s Struggle to Sustain Its War in Ukraine

In April, just weeks after he launched the invasion of Ukraine, Russian President Vladimir Putin maintained that the West could never strangle Russia’s economy. The barrage of American and European sanctions had not succeeded and would not succeed in bringing his country to its knees. “We can already confidently say that this policy toward Russia has failed,” he told his officials. “The strategy of an economic blitzkrieg has failed.”

The Biden Administration’s Nuclear Deal Is the Biggest Gift to the World’s ‘Top State Sponsor of Terrorism’

The main beneficiaries of the increased revenues will most likely be the office of Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), and more importantly the IRGC’s elite branch the Quds Force, which carries out extraterritorial operations to advance the revolutionary principles of the Islamic Republic abroad.

Tigray: After The Calm, A Possible Storm

On August 26, 2022, there was the bombing by Ethiopian federal troops of a primary school in Mekelle—the capital city of the Tigray province, which had a population of about 500,000 before the fighting began. It is not clear if the attack brings to an end some five months of relative calm in the war-torn Tigray or not.

To Renew Or Not The 2015 Iran Nuclear Agreement, That Is The Question

The Road Not Taken

After two weeks in Iran during latter part of January 1979, the height of the revolutionary movement against the dynastic, autocratic rule of Mohammed Reza Ayatollah, I had the opportunity for an extended conversation with Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini in his tent where he received foreign visitors and journalists during his final days in Paris. This was the individual who would serve as uncontested Iranian leader, officially the Supreme Guide, of the Islamic Republic of Iran until his death in 1989.