Avoiding the Abyss as War Resumes in Northern Ethiopia

War rages – again – in northern Ethiopia. The resumption of conflict on 24 August between the federal military, forces from the Amhara region, which borders Tigray, and Eritrean troops, on one side, and Tigray forces, on the other, marks the breach of a roughly nine-month truce that had largely halted some of the world’s deadliest fighting. The return to blows is a setback for a struggling peace process and strenuous efforts to get food to millions of besieged Tigrayans. Although it is unclear exactly why combat restarted or whether either side planned a sustained campaign, both immediately escalated, with a Tigrayan offensive to the south into Amhara and a joint Ethiopian-Eritrean incursion into Tigray from the north. Sustained full-blown hostilities would mean prolongation of a likely unwinnable war, creating more mass suffering. Instead, the Ethiopian parties must renew the truce and overcome the obstacles that have impeded the beginning of formal talks. Concerted high-level pressure by donors, many of whom have been distracted by the Ukraine crisis, will likely be vital to any breakthrough.