The Revenge of Muqtada al-Sadr

Why Iran Could Be the Real Loser in Iraq’s Intra-Shiite Struggle

On August 29, the Iraqi Shiite cleric Muqtada al-Sadr announced that he would withdraw from politics after months of failed attempts to form a new government. Thousands of supporters of the nationalist leader, who has emerged as a staunch opponent of Iranian-backed militias in Iraq, surged into the streets in anger, clashing with Iraqi security forces, breaching concrete barriers around Baghdad’s Green Zone, and storming the seat of government. After dozens of people were killed, Sadr went on television and instructed his supporters to go home, easing—for the moment, at least—a political crisis that has paralyzed Iraq’s caretaker government for months.

Is Afghanistan’s Long Civil War Really Over?

The Forces That Could Threaten the Taliban’s Control

One year ago, the democratic government of Afghanistan collapsed. The humiliating evacuation of U.S. military forces and civilians as well as roughly 100,000 Afghans remains a sore spot for Washington and its allies. The Taliban regime has ruled the country ever since. Levels of violence throughout the country have been dramatically reduced—but so, too, have the rights of women, the freedom of the media, and the safety of those who supported the overthrown democratic government. Questions about the new state of affairs abound. Should the international community recognize the Taliban? Will the Taliban moderate themselves? Can diplomacy or sanctions compel them to do so? Is a new international terrorist threat forming under the Taliban’s watch?

Poland’s Evolving Violent Far-Right Landscape

Abstract: Since the fall of communism in 1989, violent far-right actors in Poland have not committed a mass-casualty attack in the country. But this fact belies the relevance of this Central European country of 38 million people as both a source of and destination for violent far-right groups. Along with Hungary and Serbia, Poland has become a point of interest for white supremacists globally for being a predominantly homogeneous country of white Christians led by a socially conservative government. One of the biggest draws for international violent far-right groups is the Independence Day march organized by Polish far-right groups in Warsaw every November 11. Since the early 1990s, Poland has also been a popular destination for a range of violent far-right activities, including neo-Nazi concerts, “whites only” mixed martial arts (MMA) tournaments, and paramilitary training. The hate these groups direct toward racial and ethnic minorities, immigrants, members of the LGBTQI+ community, and other perceived enemies such as anti-fascists and liberal politicians is part of a growing trend of polarization across Poland. With the easing of travel restrictions related to COVID-19, violent far-right activities in Poland have the potential to match or even exceed pre-pandemic levels. This article provides an overview of violent far-right groups in Poland and outlines why international violent far-right actors find the country so appealing for their activities.

The Islamic State Crime-Terror Nexus in the United States: Developments and Wider Relevance

Abstract: Among the United States’ 237 Islamic State-linked federal cases to date, the nexus between crime and terrorism has a subtle but vital impact on law enforcement’s counterterrorism efforts, and provides both challenges and opportunities. Drawing from new and old cases, this article examines the criminal history of every federal Islamic State defendant and deceased attack perpetrator and highlights the consistent prevalence of past violent crimes. It evaluates criminality that was integral to the financing or logistics of Islamic State activity in the United States, and assesses the role of gangs and prison on defendants’ and perpetrators’ pathways to terrorism. Moving beyond the Islamic State, the crime-terror nexus appears more pronounced in other parts of the ideological spectrum, particularly for racially and ethnically motivated violent extremists in the United States, underscoring its potential wider salience for practitioners and researchers.

Bulgaria offers Azerbaijan electricity for gas deal

Bulgaria has offered to export electricity to Azerbaijan in exchange for expanding gas supplies, acting Economy Minister Nikola Stoyanov announced during his visit to Baku on Sunday (11 September).

“With such a scheme – bartering gas for electricity, Bulgaria could receive quantities in the next four to five months, when we need it most in the winter,” he told state television BNT.

Poland to open unfinished waterway in bid to sideline Russia

A new channel connecting the Vistula Lagoon with the Gulf of Gdańsk is to be launched on Saturday (17 September), even though it is currently unfinished.

The Vistula Spit canal is to be opened on the anniversary of the Soviet attack on Poland in 1939, which the government will be willing to use as a symbol of the country giving up its dependence on Russia.

Germans resolve to support Ukraine despite gas prices as FM visits Kyiv

Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock paid a surprise visit to Kyiv during the weekend to express continued solidarity – backed by new polls showing most Germans want to keep supporting Ukraine despite high gas prices.

With her third visit to Kyiv this year – the second since the start of Russia’s attack on the country – Baerbock said on Saturday that she wanted to “show that Germany will support Ukraine for as long as necessary.”

US-Iran clash in Albania as hopes of nuclear deal fade

Albanian authorities thwarted a second cyberattack over the weekend after Tirana, backed by the United States with pledges of support and fresh sanctions on Iran, severed all diplomatic ties with Tehran who it blames for the “sabotage”.

Meanwhile, hopes of reviving the 2015 nuclear deal continue to fade as leading European countries expressed ‘serious doubts’ about Iran’s intentions.