Iran: A Full-Scale War Is Unlikely, But ‘Hybrid Conflict’ Set To Escalate
Abstract: The spectre of a U.S.-Iran war is haunting the world. However, it is still less likely than many think. For its part, Tehran is aware that it lacks the military capabilities and financial resources to endure a direct military confrontation with the United States. Engaging in a full-scale war with Iran would also be catastrophic for the U.S. At a time when there is a need to focus on the competition with Russia and the People’s Republic of China (PRC), a direct war with Iran would reduce Washington’s capacity to counter revisionist states’ subversive activities. As such, ‘hybrid warfare’ still fits better into both sides’ cost-benefit calculus.