Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, November 14, 2025
Toplines
The Russian military command appears to be prioritizing the seizure of Pokrovsk over efforts to close the wider Ukrainian pocket in the Pokrovsk-Myrnohrad area. Russian advances in and around Pokrovsk over the last several days suggest that Russian forces in Pokrovsk are prioritizing the seizure of the settlement itself. They do not appear to be focused on supporting efforts by the 51st Combined Arms Army (CAA, formerly the 1st Donetsk People’s Republic Army Corps [DNR AC], Southern Military District [SMD]) to close the pocket from the north and northeast with a complementary attack from the south at this time.[1] Russian forces may be prioritizing the seizure of Pokrovsk for a number of reasons. Russian leadership may seek to exploit the informational effects that the town’s seizure will likely generate, or may hope that the seizure of Pokrovsk will facilitate a subsequent effort to close the pocket. Ukrainian counterattacks on the northern shoulder of the pocket and a continued Ukrainian presence within Pokrovsk are complicating Russian advances and Russia’s ability to close the pocket, but that fact should not be enough in itself to cause the Russian command to be distracted from the effort from the south. The 51st CAA has also been struggling to advance from the northeast, moving more slowly than the 2nd CAA (Central Military District [CMD]) is moving within Pokrovsk and on the western flank of the pocket.[2] The 51st CAA’s slower tempo could also be contributing to Russia’s apparent and possibly temporary prioritization of the seizure of Pokrovsk. The Russian military command is notably not pursuing the standard measures one would expect in such a battlefield configuration, namely focusing forces and means on completing the encirclement, which would normally be the fastest and least costly way to seize the entire area. The Russian military command can change its focus at any time, however.
