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Climate Change Will Fuel Contests—and Maybe Wars—for Land and Resources

Since the mid-twentieth century, the power dynamics and system of alliances that made up the postwar global order provided a strong check on campaigns to conquer and acquire territory—an otherwise enduring feature of human history. But rather than marking a definitive break from the aggression of the past, this era of relative restraint now seems to have been merely a brief deviation from the historical pattern. From Russia’s invasion of Ukraine to U.S. President Donald Trump’s avowed interest in acquiring Greenland, international land grabs are back on the table. Threats of territorial conquest are once again becoming a central part of geopolitics, driven by a new phase of great-power competition, growing population pressures, shifts in technology, and, perhaps most crucially, a changing climate.

Latest Developments

• Hamas Commander in Jenin Killed During Israeli Operation: The IDF said on January 4 that under the direction of the Shin Bet intelligence agency, Border Police officers killed key Iran-backed Hamas figure Isser Saadi in Jenin. Saadi served as the “head of the Hamas terrorist network in the area,” the IDF said. During the encounter, troops eliminated another terrorist and located an M-16 rifle, a handgun, and other military equipment in the structure where Saadi was hiding. In a separate incident, troops killed an armed terrorist, the IDF stated.
• Terror Group Acknowledges Fatalities, IDF Arrests More Than 250 Suspects: Since the launch of Operation “Iron Wall” in Jenin on January 21, Hamas has officially acknowledged the deaths of 14 members. Among the terrorists killed by Israeli troops are Qutaiba al-Shalabi and Muhammad Nazal, who murdered three Israelis near the West Bank village of al-Funduq on January 6. Israeli forces have arrested more than 250 suspects since the beginning of the offensive, the IDF Spokesperson’s Unit told FDD’s Long War Journal.
• Israeli Air Force Eliminates Iran-Backed Hezbollah Commander in Airstrike: The IDF said it had eliminated Khadir Sa’id Hashem in the Qana area of south Lebanon on March 4. Hashem was a senior figure in Hezbollah’s Radwan Force and served as a commander of a naval unit. He held several roles in the organization and played an extensive part in Hezbollah’s maritime smuggling operations. Hashem was also “responsible for planning and executing terrorist attacks in the maritime zone, including during the ceasefire,” the IDF remarked.

The U.S. Army said Saturday it had killed a top military leader of Hurras al-Din, a Syrian branch of Al-Qaida that announced its dissolution in January.

The U.S. Central Command, or CENTCOM, which oversees American forces in the Middle East, said in a statement that its forces on Feb. 23 “conducted a precision airstrike in Northwest Syria, targeting and killing Muhammed Yusuf Ziya Talay, the senior military leader of the terrorist organization Hurras al-Din.”

Israel blocks all aid into Palestine and puts new conditions on a permanent ceasefire threatening to restart the war

Israel wants to “suffocate the people of Gaza” with its violations of the ceasefire.

The terror state blocked aid into the besieged territory, put new conditions on a permanent ceasefire and threatened to restart the war on Sunday.

• Turkey, under the leadership of President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, is one of Hamas’ most important strategic allies, especially since the violent events of the Mavi Marmara flotilla in 2010. Turkey hosts senior Hamas figures, some of whom have received Turkish citizenship, and provides political, diplomatic and propaganda support, as well as economic and humanitarian assistance.
• Hamas has established one of its most important overseas centers in Turkey, primarily operated by prisoners released in the Gilad Shalit exchange deal of 2011. It uses Turkey to plan terrorist attacks and transfer funds to finance terrorist activities inside Israel, in Judea, Samaria and the Gaza Strip, and to raise and launder money in support of its terrorist operations, including the October 7, 2023, attack and massacre.
• The close relationship between Turkey and Hamas was manifested during the Gaza Strip War, when Turkey did not condemn Hamas but sharply criticized Israel, often using antisemitic themes. Throughout the fighting, political coordination continued between Erdoğan, senior Turkish officials and the Hamas leadership, including regarding negotiations with Israel and humanitarian assistance. Turkey also received Palestinian prisoners who were released from Israeli prisons and deported.
• Hamas documents seized by IDF forces in the Gaza Strip during the Gaza Strip War showed the relationship between Hamas and Turkey, including how Hamas used Turkey for terrorist activities against Israel. One document provided the Hamas plan to establish a branch in Turkey to coordinate operations against Israel abroad, including the assassination of military personnel and attacks on Israeli vessels.
• In ITIC assessment, given the Hamas operational infrastructure in Turkey, its deep involvement in terrorism and Turkey’s hostility toward Israel, Hamas will seek to strengthen and expand its ties with Turkey. The deportation of terrorists, particularly senior terrorists from Israel, to Turkey in particular, is likely to reinforce the Hamas operational base in Turkey and facilitate the rebuilding of its military wing and the return of released prisoners to terrorist activities. A Turkish aegis would strengthen the “external” Hamas leadership and increase Hamas terrorist activity outside Israel. Given Turkey’s location and its strained relations with Israel, Israeli security forces would face significant challenges in effectively countering Hamas infrastructure and activities in Turkey.