Africa’s Development And The Threat Of Geopolitical Changes – Analysis

Introduction: Rich Africa

Africa is undoubtedly the continent best endowed with natural resources. With a surface area of approximately 30.3 million square kilometers, if one includes the island areas, the continent covers about a sixth of the surface of the globe and one-fifth of the world’s land mass. Today, it is home to approximately 1.2 billion people, or 17 percent of the world’s population, unevenly distributed over 55 states. As a whole, it has a population density average, of about 35 people per square kilometer compared to 47 per square kilometer globally. This average is 4 times lower than that of the European Union, for example. However, the average population growth is very high, and according to population projections, the African population is expected to double by 2050. (1)

Algeria and Russia Aim to Boost Military Ties

The head of Algeria’s army hosted Russia’s top security official on Monday to discuss boosting their military ties, the defense ministry in Algiers said.

General Said Chengriha said the visit of National Security Council secretary Nikolai Patrushev reflected both countries’ “firm desire to strengthen their historic and strategic partnership… in particular in the area of military cooperation.”

IEA kill top Daesh commander in Kabul

The Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan’s (IEA) spokesman Zabihullah Mujahid said Tuesday that a top Daesh commander had been killed in an operation in Kabul on Sunday night.

According to a statement issued by Mujahid, IEA forces killed Qari Fateh, the regional Daesh “intelligence and operations chief”, during the operation in Khair Khana area.

Frontlines in Flux in Battle against African Militant Islamist Groups

A surge of attacks in the Sahel coupled with declines in activity by Boko Haram, ISIS, and al Shabaab reflect the constantly shifting threats posed by militant Islamist groups in Africa.

A time-lapse review of violent episodes involving militant Islamist groups over the past decade underscores the shifting nature of Islamist militancy in Africa. Key highlights include:

Data source: Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project.
  • Militant Islamist groups in Africa have engaged in 3,050 violent events in 2018—a record level of activity. However, this figure is only slightly higher than that seen in 2017 (2,927 events), reflecting a plateauing of what had been a steadily upward trend.
  • Overall, militant Islamist group activity in Africa has doubled since 2012 when there were 1,402 events linked to these groups. Over the past 10 years, there has been a ten-fold increase in violent events (from 288 in 2009 to 3,050 in 2018).
  • Militant Islamist group activity in Africa continues to remain primarily concentrated in four theaters: Somalia, the Lake Chad Basin, the Sahel (Central Mali and border areas), and Egypt. Within each of these theaters, however, the geographic range of violent activities has become more dispersed in recent years.
  • Violent episodes involving al Shabaab represent roughly 50 percent of all militant Islamist group activity in Africa. This rate has remained consistent over the past decade.
  • Events involving three of the most active groups (al Shabaab, Boko Haram, and the Islamic State [ISIS]) saw declines in 2018 from the previous year (by 7 percent, 23 percent, and 31 percent, respectively, with the figure for ISIS since 2016).
  • Meanwhile, militant groups in the Sahel have grown more active. Events linked to militant Islamist activity, including al Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM) affiliates and Islamic State in the Greater Sahara (ISGS), collectively tripled in 2018, to 464 violent episodes from 192 the year prior.
  • Despite the persistent level of activity, fatalities linked to militant Islamist groups in Africa have continued to decline steadily from a peak in 2015 (9,744 versus 18,856 fatalities). Much of this decrease is attributed to the drop in fatalities tied to Boko Haram. However, both al Shabaab (15 percent) and ISIS (20 percent) also saw declines in associated fatalities in 2018.
  • Fatalities collectively linked to militant Islamist groups in the Sahel, in the meantime, doubled from 529 in 2017 to 1,112 in 2018. Likewise, the Boko Haram off-shoot, the Islamic State of West Africa (ISWA), also saw a near doubling in associated fatalities in the same time frame (520 to 960). Nonetheless, given the declines linked to Boko Haram, the trend in the Lake Chad region continues downward, with a 15-percent decrease in 2018.
Data source: Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project.
  • Reported attacks against civilians have grown as a share of overall militant group activity in Africa since 2010. In 2018, violent events against civilians represented 21 percent of all militant Islamist group activity in Africa. This compares to 17 percent in 2015 and 8 percent in 2010. Boko Haram has inflicted the most civilian fatalities over the decade: 11,403 fatalities from 1,107 attacks. In 2018, violent attacks against civilians comprised roughly a third of events involving Boko Haram. This is consistent with rates of attacks against civilians seen by the most active militant groups in the Sahel—ISGS and the Macina Liberation Front (FLM).
  • While not as active, relatively newer groups—such as Ansaroul Islam in Burkina Faso and a group alternatively referred to as “al Shabaab” and Ahlu Sunnah Wa Jamâ (ASWJ) in Mozambique—were involved in a significantly higher rate of attacks against civilians, 55 and 77 percent respectively, relative to the total number of events to which they were linked in 2018. Though al Shabaab in Somalia has been responsible for the most reported attacks against civilians this decade (1,233 causing 2,058 fatalities), its use of that tactic in 2018 represented 13 percent of total events in which it was involved.
Data source: Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project.
  • Reflecting the growing fragmentation of the militant Islamist group threat, 13 African countries now face regular attacks from these groups (up from 5 in 2010). Furthermore, there are now roughly two dozen active militant Islamist groups versus five in 2010.

Ansaroul Islam: The Rise and Decline of a Militant Islamist Group in the Sahel

Burkina Faso’s first militant Islamist group, Ansaroul Islam, has faced setbacks, pointing to the weaknesses of violent extremist organizations lacking deep local support and facing sustained pressure.

After years of avoiding militant Islamist violence, Burkina Faso has experienced a rapid growth in attacks since 2016. In 2018, there were 137 such violent events involving 149 fatalities. By mid-2019, militant Islamist groups already had outpaced these numbers with 191 episodes of violence and 324 fatalities. Three groups have been primarily responsible—the Islamic State in the Greater Sahara (ISGS), the Macina Liberation Front (FLM) faction of the Jama’at Nusrat al Islam wal Muslimeen (JNIM) coalition, and Ansaroul Islam.

Exploiter le chaos : l’Etat islamique et al-Qaeda

Synthèse

L’Etat islamique (EI), les groupes liés à al-Qaeda, Boko Haram et d’autres mouvements extrémistes sont les protagonistes des crises les plus meurtrières d’aujourd’hui, ce qui complique les efforts pour y mettre fin. Ils exploitent les guerres, la faillite des Etats et les bouleversements géopolitiques au Moyen-Orient, s’implantent en Afrique et constituent ailleurs une menace en constante évolution. Enrayer leur avancée nécessite d’éviter les erreurs qui ont permis leur ascension. Cela implique de distinguer les groupes selon leurs objectifs ; de faire un usage plus différencié de la force ; de ne pas repousser les militants sans avoir au préalable une alternative crédible ; et de considérer établir des voies de communication, même avec les plus radicaux. Il est également vital de désamorcer les crises dont ils se nourrissent et de prévenir l’apparition de nouveaux conflits, en poussant les dirigeants au dialogue, à l’intégration et aux réformes, et en réagissant avec mesure aux attaques terroristes. L’essentiel est que la lutte contre « l’extrémisme violent » ne distraie pas, ni n’aggrave, des menaces plus graves encore, notamment les rivalités croissantes entre puissances, régionales et internationales.

Nord du Burkina Faso : ce que cache le jihad

Les violences jihadistes au Sahel de l’Afrique de l’Ouest se sont propagées dans le nord du Burkina Faso. La réponse de Ouagadougou et ses partenaires doit tenir compte des racines sociales et locales de la crise et non uniquement de ses dimensions religieuses et sécuritaires.