The risks of an ISIS comeback

Islamic State has faced considerable losses in recent years, but not enough to permanently prevent the organization from resurging.

On February 9, 2022, the United States-led Global Coalition to Defeat ISIS issued a communique stating that it “remains resolutely committed to achieving the enduring defeat of ISIS. Recent events in Syria underscore both the success we continue to have in degrading Daesh/ISIS leadership and the continuing threat the terrorist group poses in the region and beyond.” Is the terror organization close to making a comeback? Despite sporadic successes, it still has a long way to go.

APPLY THE LOGIC OF THE AFGHANISTAN WITHDRAWAL TO SYRIA

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has entered its twelfth month. Reporting on the conflict understandably focuses on the day-to-day fighting and destruction, but it is important for Americans and U.S. policymakers to understand the larger issues raised by the war and the U.S. role in it. The following Defense Priorities analysis aims to improve understanding of these issues and what U.S. policy should prioritize as the war continues.

Map of Ukraine and contested territories

Apply the logic of the Afghanistan withdrawal to Syria

Key points

  • The logic President Biden used for removing U.S. troops from Afghanistan applies to Syria. Since a U.S. intervention should be defined by clear, achievable goals, and since long-range strikes, instead of occupying forces, can accomplish U.S. counterterrorism goals, there is no good case for keeping U.S. troops in Syria either.
  • Around 900 U.S. forces currently occupy territory in eastern and southern Syria, risking conflict with Syrian forces and local militias, as well as Russian, Iranian, and Turkish forces.
  • ISIS’s territorial caliphate in Syria was eliminated in 2019. The few, small, remote areas the remnants of ISIS now hold are largely within territory held by Syrian government forces. Local forces can fight the remnants of ISIS.
  • None of the other standard rationales for keeping U.S. forces in Syria—protecting the Kurds, countering Iran and Russia, unseating the Assad regime—justifies keeping troops in Syria either.

That Time US Forces Tore Hundreds of Russian Wagner Group Mercenaries to Pieces in Syria

It’s been one month since Russia invaded Ukraine. What Vladimir Putin and much of the world originally expected to be a quick and easy victory over their smaller neighbor has rapidly devolved into a military disaster for Russia. The Pentagon estimated more than 7,000 Russian soldiers had been killed since the invasion started, while NATO believes the number could be as high as 15,000. Russian generals continue to die, and reports are describing mass desertions and fratricide on the front lines. As much of the world celebrates the modern David versus Goliath story, cracks in the veneer of Russia’s supposed military might have shone through long before the invasion of Ukraine, and a four-hour battle that unfolded in Syria in 2018 is one of the most striking examples.

Disinformation Narratives Related to Sweden and Finland’s NATO Applications

  • Throughout Russia’s war on Ukraine, the Kremlin’s disinformation efforts have sought to craft and disseminate false narratives that serve several political goals and influence public opinion about the conflict.
  • Since April 2022, Russian-backed information manipulation networks online have sought to seed and amplify a number of false narratives regarding Sweden and Finland’s NATO application, which was formally submitted on May 18, 2022.
  • Many of the false or misleading narratives targeting Sweden are centered around sensitive and polarizing topics in the country related to immigration, Islamophobia, and far-right conspiracy theories.
  • According to our monitoring, between September 27 – October 3, 2022, posts alleging that the U.S. was responsible for the sabotage of Nord Stream pipelines increased by 15,000% across 25 social media platforms compared to the week prior.

Drone Strike on Iranian Military Plant Sends Message to Tehran

  • A late January drone strike on a military production plant in Isfahan, Iran, purportedly conducted by Israel, was likely intended to send a message to Iranian leaders that they are vulnerable to attack.
  • The strike is unlikely to change Iran’s behavior but signals Israel’s intent to escalate if Iran continues to advance its military technology projects.
  • U.S. officials appeared to tacitly welcome the strike in light of Tehran’s escalation of its uranium enrichment program, its repression of protests, and its supplies of armed drones for Moscow’s war in Ukraine.
  • Iranian leaders insist that Iraqi Kurdish territory is being used to facilitate Israeli operations against Iran.

Regime Appoints Major General Ali Samra as Director of the Air Defense Department

Ali Tawfiq Samra was appointed director of the Air Defense Department of the regime’s militias, according to Shaam Network.

Media sources close to the Assad regime revealed the appointment of an officer with the rank of Major General named Ali Tawfiq Samra as director of the Air Defense Department of the regime’s militias. The Assad regime decided earlier to appoint Major General Samra, commander of the 26th Division in the regime’s militias. He was also serving as deputy director of the Air Defense Department before being appointed as its director recently.