Anyone predicting what will happen or even what is happening, with total clarity, pursues a fool’s errand – the lack of clarity made worse by extensive, aggressive information operations and disinformation by both sides. But whoever winds up on top and however long the violence endures there are some broad trends that can be identified.
American Power’s Staying Power
In the 1990s and the early years of this century, the United States’ global dominance could scarcely be questioned. No matter which metric of power one looked at, it showed a dramatic American lead. Never since the birth of the modern state system in the mid-seventeenth century had any country been so far ahead in the military, economic, and technological realms simultaneously. Allied with the United States, meanwhile, were the vast majority of the world’s richest countries, and they were tied together by a set of international institutions that Washington had played the lead role in constructing. The United States could conduct its foreign policy under fewer external constraints than any leading state in modern history. And as dissatisfied as China, Russia, and other aspiring powers were with their status in the system, they realized they could do nothing to overturn it.
Depuis 2020, l’émir du Groupe de soutien à l’islam et aux musulmans (GSIM) doit faire face à la branche sahélienne de l’Etat islamique.
Le chef de cabinet du colonel Assimi Goïta, président de la transition dominée par les militaires au Mali, fait partie des quatre personnes tuées dans une attaque mardi près de la frontière mauritanienne, indique jeudi une note de la présidence authentifiée par l’AFP.
Selon le document, Oumar Traoré, chef de cabinet du colonel Goïta, était dans la délégation victime d’une embuscade près de la localité de Nara, dans une région en proie aux attaques jihadistes.
Les obsèques ont lieu jeudi à Kati, ville-garnison près de la capitale Bamako, précise la même source.
Trois-cent-vingt militaires soudanais fuyant les combats meurtriers dans leur pays entre les paramilitaires des Forces de soutien rapide (FSR) et l’armée régulière ont traversé la frontière dimanche et se sont rendus à l’armée tchadienne, a annoncé mercredi le ministre tchadien de la Défense.
Instead, an independent foreign policy is desperately needed—and gaining support.
Recently, the United States has been followed by a number of European countries in supporting a cold war policy toward Russia and China. This has created increasing problems in Europe—bringing a major war to the continent, creating serious economic difficulties, and intensifying a decline in living standards.
Fighting in cities across Sudan has left hundreds dead and trapped untold numbers at home in severe danger. If not halted, the conflict could become a devastating civil war. Local and outside actors should demand a humanitarian ceasefire, especially around Eid al-Fitr, followed by talks.
Western sanctions against Russia have accelerated the move away from the U.S. dollar worldwide, Stephen Jen, the CEO of London-based asset management company Eurizon, warned on Tuesday.
The dollar’s share in global reserves fell ten times faster last year than over the past two decades, Jen said, as cited by Bloomberg. The process began as some countries started to look for alternatives after seeing Russia’s assets frozen abroad and the country cut off from the global financial messaging system known as SWIFT, according to Jen.
Crisis Group’s work preventing conflict and shaping peace has a positive influence on crises around the globe. This Impact Note highlights cases in Afghanistan, Colombia, Ethiopia, Mali, Nagorno-Karabakh, the U.S. and Yemen, as well as our advocacy at the EU and UN and our research on climate and conflict in Africa.